PK,

Can I ask have you based the fact that Roushayd has improved solely on his form with Vouchersafe? Is the thinking as V reversed the form with Billet in his next race it had to be a good run by R.

I also see in the Aston you think R lacked class (although VDW didn't actually say that) if this is the case what if any part do a/ratings play in this method? Also if the fact that R had won a 641 race in the past is important why would you think he lacked class?

I'm happy a/ratings play NO part in this method, if they do why would VDW have said ... [Clifton Chapel top on class but he goes out because the distance is all wrong.]

Roushayd had a far higher a/rating than Clifton Chapel, so how is he (CC) top on class? In this method class is based solely on the value of the last race, otherwise the comments and analysis just don't make sense.

Have you the a/ratings of the horses mentioned in the 3 races leading up to the ONC? I only have them for the runners in that race.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
Of course ability ratings play a part in these methods,That is what you can't accept.Clifton chapel's run lto was against higher class horsesin a higher class race.For example Khayasi had won a class 2965 prior to C.C meeting him Doyoun had finished third in the very same race,Roushayd had an ability rating of 231.Therefore the class of horse that C.C had been running against were superior to Roushayd abilty,But of course C.C finished well down the field."the class in which a horse runs is not the same as what it competes in".

Mtoto
Please excuse me,Khayasi had just won a class 321,And Doyoun didn't even run.(wrong race lol) nevertheless C.C was taking on higher class horses Doyoun 2,000 guinneas,Class 847. Unfuwain class 241,Wheras clifton Chapel had won a class 178 penultimate race but this win was below Roushayds ability.If you think he didn't use the ab rating at this point,Then i suggest you think again.He had to use something to judge one performance against another and the abilty rating was it.

Mtoto
i would like to add something to your comments r.e clifton Chapel

"Note however,That class comes from his 12th in the derby "

He wan't just talking about the class of the race,He was also guiding to the class of animal that C.C had met in that particular race.Hence his comment "he is a long way clear on class,Apart from Clifton Chapel"

Mtoto,

Point by point in answer to your queries.

NO.
ABILITY FORMS A COMPONENT OF THE BETTING DECISION.
CLIFTON CHAPEL IS NOT A FORM HORSE.
THE METHOD IS A COMBINATION OF FACTORS TO IDENTIFY GOOD BETTING PROPOSITIONS.
ROUSHAYD WAS HIGHEST ABILITY IN ALL DETAILED RACES.

Investor,
Note point three and in relation CVDW's comment on Ala Hounak. Then compare the form to Roushayd's.

PKBoy
Yes i understand the comments on Al Hounak and Shimshek for that matter.

Mtoto
it may also be worth taking a look at Ben Adhem race 414 (merce cunningham)taking the previous posts into consideration.

Mtoto
Although Vouchsafe reversed form with Billet.It didn't change things because billet was a lower class horse and Roushayd had beaten vouchsafe giving him over a stone and a half in weight.

PK,

Thanks for the reply.

I still can't see how the Epsom race is an improvement without the s/f. This is further complicated by VDW saying Vouchersafe also improved in that race.

I'm happy that ability is a part of the method, I just think in this case ability is measured in a different way. Are you saying the a/rating is used in this method?

If you (or anyone else) have the a/ratings of the other horses mentioned it would be a big help. As I said I have only the ratings for the horses that ran in the ONC

Investor,

Am I reading this right? You appear to be saying a horse runs a good race if it is beaten by a horse that has performed well in a higher class. Even if the race is now a lower class race. If he wins it he had to be dropped in class to win, if he is placed or beaten it is a good run and a +? Why do the runs where he is beaten by inferior horses not count, and he is still an improving horse? Why doesn't it stop him being a form horse, when horses being beaten by superior horses become non form horses?

Be Lucky

Mtoto
Vdw judged a horse on winning races,By doing that he formed a rating,I have given you examples in my previous posts about how he could gauge this rating against other horses.You say you are now happy he used the ability rating,Which is a step in the right direction.Isn't it therefore logical that if a horse has shown form against another horses abilty rating then it is worthy of attention.Like i said before all the examples i have looked at have shown form in higher class in one way,shape or form,They are not neccesarily higher rated on ability but they have shown form by either beating higher ability rated horses or beating or getting close to horses that have shown form in higher class races than there ability.Example (again) Merce cunningham ab 55 dropped slightly from class 79 to 77 in class 77 he took care of ben adhem which had just won a class 166.So M.C had shown form way above his ability,Was there any horse in the class 79 that had shown above that (recently)Shimshek had finished 4th class 253 previous to that had finished 3rd class 76 (vdw said he wasn't on, of course he wasn't M.C had just won in higher class than he had finished 3rd in) Al hounak had finished 4th class 249.The nearest after that was Roushayd finishing 3rd class 51,Hope you get my drift.

Investor,

Slow down. While I think ability was used I think it was measured in a different way. I think if you read my post again you will see that's what I said.

Funnily enough Shimshek was just the horse I was thinking about. He finished 2nd in a 254 grade race and that isn't good enough. Among the reasons given was it was a slow race and he did nothing from the distance.

Roushayd also does nothing from the distance but is the selection why? Perhaps because it was a fast run race allowing him to record an improving s/f? Even though he was beaten by inferior horses.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
i have spent most of the day trying to put my point across about Roushayd and you say Why,I'm not going through it all again mate.re-read my posts if you feel the need.I'm going to sit down and have a few beers."Why" aaaaaaarggggghhhh

in the middle of all this - I will post the results of my "total bollocks " race - "To Place" -predictions - as I said - I"Hate" wolves" !

Ayr

12.30 - Oliverjohn - L
1.00 - Tandava - 2nd - 2/1
1.30 - Forever Eyesofblue - L
2.00 - Wing Commander - L
2.30 - Culcabrook - 1st - 5/2
3.00 - Lord Capitaine - 2nd - 4/1
3.30 - ????????

New

12.50 - Topanberry - L
1.20 - Habitual Dancer - 1st - 14/1
1.50 - Imperial Dream - 1st - 8/13
2.20 - Hot Weld - 1st - 13/8
2.50 - Jerico III - 2nd - 7/2
3.20 - Time marches on - L


Wolv - I hate it !!!


1.10 - Point of Dispute - 2nd 5/2
1.40 - Tiger Dawn - L
2.10 - Fiveaclock Express - 3rd - 7/2
2.40 - Dock Tower - NR
3.10 - Mount Eprhram - L
3.40 - Stormy Nature - L
4.10 - Midshipman - L
4.40 - Sorbriesharry - L


NB - I note that whilst I started 2 new threads - based on the last 2 elememts of VDWs "Equation" - not one post on either subject - has been made by any VDWr - this indicates to me that not one of the knows a "bloody" thing on the subjects

They are still "Chasing their Arse" on the Janet and John - " Elements "

TC
The ability rating would seem to be the dominant factor

Seing as it is flawed and "not perfect for obvious reasons" (VDW's Words) there would seem to be a lot of evaluation reliant on it

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TC,

I think you will find I did suggest that it would be an idea if you at least started the threads going. I thought as you couldn't be bother you had lost interest.

It may not have been on one of your threads but I did state I don't think being a distance winner, or having a first run of the season would be grounds to doubt a horses capability. Also I don't think the size of the field worried VDW. Have you any thoughts on either subject?

Be Lucky

Two Pints Later


Looks like our resident expert has nodded off
Must have drunk too much
Again

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

Mtoto -

I did post some initial - starting pionts on "both" threads - but with zero responce .

I have now posted some more "contrevercial" suggestions !!

Perhaps they will Kickstart the Threads

I see that "Our Mutual Friend" - is now - totaly "Pissed" - and has gone - "To Sleep"

Mtoto -

No - not my thread -

but I do think that a Top "speed fig" in the last run of the season - is something to consider for the first run of the next season !

boozer -

I disagree -

I think that - Time and Precentageges - are the Key to his methods - !

They were not "Deliberatly - Pointed out " - but they are a continuing "Theme" !!