Mtoto

I never bothered with jusging ability in the seventies, I was purely a horse pattern follower as I mentioned somewhile ago. I have put it on that thread for discussion more than anything.

Is an OHR not an ability rating just on it's own? without any other calculation needed..or is not a recent Racing Post Rating a measure of current ability?

Sean

Good post there that opens up a lot of discussion.

One point, that all agreed, is that horses run faster when they're in better company.

Is that saying that a slow horse runs faster in higher class or that all higher class horses run faster than slower ones..not sure which way that is meant.

If a horse is asked to go faster than it normally does EARLY on in a race it will produce a slower overall time as extra early energy used eats in to finishing speed at a rate of knots.

So if a horse steps up in class and that race is run a TRUE PACE for that class then the horse will be going that bit quicker early and so will weaken more quickly..in the true run race it will produce a LOWER speed figure..not a higher one. On the other hand the horse steps up in class and they go slow for that class early then the horse is going no faster than it normally goes early on..when the race concludes the horse is still in there and MAY be dragged along when the better horses accelerate and produce a figure it never has in it's own class. The reason being in the lower class race there is no other horse making it pull out all the stops..whereas today there are better horses alongside it at the end which stretch the horse to the limit.

The conclusion is..a horse will produce a higher speed figure in a higher class race only IF allowed to only use the SAME early energy it uses in it's proper class. A horse will produce a SLOWER speed figure if taking part in a higher class race if that race is true run early on.

This is not an improving horse situation..obviously if a horse is improving then it can step up and win. Your run of the mill horse will react as I have posted above when raced in class.

So basically we CAN'T say that all class raises are the same. A horse will produce a different speed figure depending on how fast or slow they go early in the higher class.

Just to add..WELL CHIEF

This horse didn't show his best FTO this season..he jumped poorly early and may have needed that run. I would have rated that run at least 10lb more than RPR gave it.

Yesterday he was ready to show his best if jumping soundly. They went a true pace for the class early on and the race was 4 seconds faster than the novice race earlier..a true champion class race.

He hasn't improved the masses of lbs people think bewteen the two races..he has just shown his true ability this season..the first run blew the cobwebs away..i don't understand why people are taking the first race at face value.

The other thing about WC is that hes only a 5yo so no one is going to rush him along. As the owner says he's the king in waiting.

The horses that are in top 4 speed today are:
kelso 3.20
northern minister

warwick
12.30
conroy
2.0
abalvino
3.05
finzi

[Most will be acquainted with the idea of looking for horses which are dropped in class. Often this is a race offering less prize money, but not necessarily so. The quality of horses engaged is more to the point.]

Investor,

The above is a warning from VDW, one of a few he wrote about the flaw in the method he used to judge ability.

The argument that the horse HAD to be dropped in class to win. Why doesn't it hold good for Drumgora in that case?

You say Roushayd had shown form in his Epsom race. I have asked this before, what form did he show, he did nothing from the 2f marker? Take out the s/f and explain how this was a good run. The only thing I can see is he beat Vouchsafe. The form book says Vouchsafe was eased and logic says he wasn't given a hard race as this wasn't his target. The target was the Ascot race the one he had won before and was disqualified. I agree R was dropped in class, but not because of the reason you use. He was dropped in class because the competition was weaker at Haydock, at Haydock he was the best horse. At Epsom there where better horses than him in the race.

Ectoo,

I was half expecting that answer. I will re word the question, if you wanted to judge ability back in the 70 what method would you have used?

Yes, I agree the OR is a measure of ability, that's why I use it as a part of my method. I have never used Postmark (or what ever they call it now) mainly because I'm not a 100% now it is formulated and if the different compilers use the same methods. Also it appears to be based on bear form with little or no attention paid to the pace of the race. Is it not just of someone's idea of what they would make the OR?

Again something else we SEEM to agree on. The effect of speed and class, because of something you wrote you have given me a lot of food for thought on a flaw in my a/ratings. Although I think you may be horrified to know my ideas originally came from reading VDW!

Be Lucky

investor
hope its going well for you since you went full time?
just strikes me as a little odd,that a full time pro punter spends his time inside a betting shop?

The main difference between the OR and the PMR is that the former is independant of weight, whilst the latter is adjusted for it.

However there is more to it than just the weight, the handicapper uses intelligence when he compiles the ORs, making them more of an unbiased but informed opinion than the PMRs which are better defined as measures.

True ability, or a universal opinion of it, (as opposed to ability that has been subjected to influences which may have affected its manifestation), has to be the yardstick from which to make prediction.

Greg
Now and again in the betting shop,Get it right.A lot of Pro's go on course,Why do that when you can use the exchanges and watch racing on ruk or attheraces.Now that's what i call odd.

Mtoto
Exactly the quality of the horses is important,As is the quality of horses that have been run against.Roushayd showed improvement in his s/f.Vdw said Roushayd was coming to the boil his ability rating was 231 the value of the race he had just shown improvement through his speed figure was 227.He was coming to the boil in respect of his ability rating and would now be dropped to collect.It's about time you got this sorted,It has been said that vdw's interpretation of form was different and it was.I think you know where i'm coming from but you simply won't accept the way he interpreted form.

Some interesting points since I last looked in .

Ectoo,
your breakdown of pace/time figures was very informative. I think what the handicappers meant was your example of a horse getting " dragged along" by the better ones.

From your explanation, I would conclude that IF ( important big IF) a horse goes up in class, AND returns an improved speed figure, then that's an improving or capable horse.

If the speed fig is improved when the pace was true for the higher class, then this MUST be a good animal, for it has withstood the faster early pace ( which it may never have experienced before).

As you say, if pace was poor, then the horse is in no way stretched anymore than is usually the case in its previous lower class races.
In this case, if it didn't do well, then forget this animal/cross it right off the list. It can't go higher. It's reached its limit.

My main problem would be getting to know the pace variations of races I hadn't seen and where there are no sectional times.

OR and RPR.

Apparently, from what I've read elsewhere, there is another "take" on OR.

It seems that OR isn't really an ability rating at all. It is just a weight related handicapping figure, set by the handicapper in an attempt to slow down winning horses, so that their next race is " more of a puzzle" as he's tried to even out the natural advantage of better horses.

In theory, he's aiming for a dead-heat finish for all the various contenders.

In effect, I still think it is a useful pointer to ability, myself.

RPR is a private estimate of what the RP man thinks the horse WILL achieve in its coming run.
He's trying to predict the grade of performance, whereas the Official Handicapper is trying to restrict past winners or close finishers, in their next run - about which he knows nothing.

So OR and RPR are based on opinions, but they are set by persons with differing aims.

It gets a bit too complex for me, but they reckon both are now on the same 140 lb scale.
Apparently, there is some way of correlating the two figures, but I'm not at all sure how.

It has been said that vdw's interpretation of form was different and it was.

Investor,

There are some cases where VDW shows this, but many many more are just excuses used by others to cover the illogical thinking THEY have used to solve the puzzle. When these theories are challenged the escape route is to say, "ah, you don't understand how VDW viewed form".

I have asked the question many times and never get an answer. How does the fact that Prominent King runs Drumgora to 5 lengths giving him 19lbs show he is good enough to win the Erin? If the answer is logical I can't see why no one will answer it. That run proves a few things, it shows PK is in good to fair form, it shows he can act on the course but we already know that. It shows if Drumgora ran to form it gives PK a chance of beating Decent Fellow. Is that fact of any use when Decent Fellow isn't in the first 3 on VDW's other ratings? Doesn't it make you wonder if PK's rating comes from somewhere other than collateral form with Drumgora. It should be remembered that's it's not me that is saying the other ratings were the deciding factor, VDW said it.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
But the ratings aren't the be all and end all,That needs to be remembered aswell.Beacon light went down to a lower abilty RATED horse in lower class than his ability rating.This is what i mean about interpretation.You have set your heart on your interpretation,And i have done the same.And it's pointless carrying on mtoto you just cannot or won't see it.Surely you have seen that all the examples that vdw gave have shown form above there ability in one way or another.Another point regarding Roushayd.Vouchsafe had just won a class 116 previous to the old newton,Had any of the other horse shown form above that,I will answer it for you Clifton chapel had but finished tailed off 12 of 14 lto over the trip that was being run today.Roushayd had beaten Vouchsafe by 2lgs giving him 15lb in weight.No doubt you will see that as illogical aswell.I have tried to explain it the best all you say is it isn't logical,I give up (again).

investor, mtoto, everyone, van der wheil, stated ;i use many lines of evaulation: equate race class with rating achieved:..would you have used race before epsom, roushayds, running against iben bey,

grundy
Each race has a different problem to solve,That is why it's not a system.There are many ways of looking at what a horse has to overcome,So in answer to your question ALL the horses have to be looked at,And on occasions what they have ran against.Don't forget that roushayd had won a class 609 over today's distance 9previous season) so he was well capable of winning this.it was just a matter of preperation.

Probably not much point in publishing this "load of old bollocks" - but here are the results of my "place selections " today -

Kelso

12.15 - Neckar Valley - L
12.45 - Alices Old Rose - 2nd - 7/1
1.15 - Waltzing Along - 2nd - 11/8
1.45 - Page Point - 3rd - 11/4
2.20 - Yuor a Gassman - 1st - 10/11
2.50 - Gatograde - 2nd - 4/1
3.20 - Glenfarclass Boy - L

War

12.30 - Kings Rock - L
1.00 - Torche - 1st - 5/2
1.30 - Vicario - 3rd - 7/1
2.00 - Artic Spirit - L
2.35 - Lin D'Estruval - L
3.05 - Finzi - L
3.35 - Golden Measure - L


Take out - Am Hcap and NHunt Flat and you have 8 from 12



Neckar Valley and Finzi - dissapointed - but there again - look at the Race Class ! - posible filter here

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Place selectons for Monday -


Ayr

12.30 - Oliverjohn
1.00 - Tandava
1.30 - Forever Eyesofblue
2.00 - Wing Commander
2.30 - Culcabrook
3.00 - Lord Capitaine
3.30 - ????????

New

12.50 - Topanberry
1.20 - Habitual Dancer
1.50 - Imperial Dream
2.20 - Hot Weld
2.50 - Jerico III
3.20 - Time marches on


Wolv - I hate it !!!

1.40 - Tiger Dawn
2.10 - Fiveaclock Express
2.40 - Dock Tower
3.10 - Mount Eprhram
3.40 - Stormy Nature
4.10 - Midshipman
4.40 - Sorbriesharry

Well done TC... looks like a good profit.

Interesting conversation between Ectoo and Seanrua. Seanrua, your explanation of Ectoo's advice was very useful. I shall try to keep that in mind (spotting improvement). Thanks both.

Grundy,

The answer to Roushayds "informness" for the "Old Newton Cup" lies in his last race. The race before Epsom is important in two respects. Firstly in that it is used, along with the other races in that booklet, to show Roushayds consistency. Secondly and perhaps more importantly, that race is used relative to the Northern Dancer to gauge consistency/improvement in form.
A good analysis to undertake which may gauge how CVDW judged form and class lies in CVDW's detailing of the Aston Park Stakes.

Our Elisio troubled me for some time, I could not see how CVDW could come to the conclusion that he had neither the class nor form, when he had just finished a close second and yet Roushayd and Chauve Souris only lacked class.

This is a fairly positive indication of CVDW's methodical approach.

Ibin Bey has little bearing or Influence on CVDW's judgement, of either class or form, for Roushayd's participation in the "ONC".

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pkboy,