As Mtoto suggested discussing the Ability rating, I have opened this thread, to keep the "Mtoto Says" thread open for consistency discussions.

Ability Rating, Class assessment, call it what you will... how do you do yours?!

I use the basic method first given me by Investor:

"Divide total win prize money by number of wins".

That's about as far as I've got on that score, but I'm reading a bit of actual VDW everyday, so I may progress eventually.

I feel sure that there must be at least half a dozen further checks to be made, once this is done.

Seanrua
Divide the prize money by the total of wins.
Write this down on a piece of paper.

You can , now sell this piece of paper on e-bay for.....?

Or you can throw it in the bin and get off down the pub.

I know what I would do.

Today I started a paper trade experiment based on factors my old mate Maurice, the bookie, (now deceased) told me , plus a few ideas of my own.
The results were:
W7-1
L5-1
2ND 7-2 FAV
2ND 10-1
W7-1
L5-4 FAV
W11-2
W15-8
L11-10 FAV
W16-1
These were all hcps and had nothing to do with adding up form figs or adding up prize money.
There is a common link to each one (note how all the favs lost) although that is not the link.
Only first day, but I have suspected it was profitable for a long time.
I shall list tomorrows later.
Look at this , though supposing there are 10 tomorrow and all 10 lose,
We are already UP 25 points on win side plus 7 out of 10 placed that made about 10 points.

If all come nowhere tomorrow (I shall take the risk) it is tough luck.

Swish,

But what is the common link?

If anyone can find the link, I shall donate £20 to Gummy.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Swish:
If anyone can find the link, I shall donate £20 to Gummy.

---

i think i know what it is swish , but do you want me to spoil it so early on?

No Tannis,
Not yet, thanks.

FRIDAY
SANDOWN
1.O
MANBOW
3.10
MOUNSEY CASTLE

EXETER
12.40
CANSAIRUN
2.15
VILLAIR
2.45
ROLLO
3.20
JUST KATE

WOLVERHAMPTON
1.50
I'M AIMEE
2.55
GREENWICH MEANTIME
3.30
EIJAZZ
4.0
NADIR

Here's hoping

Swish,

There might be a riot when this gets out!

Check my answer on your hotmail address.

Answer on your btopenworld email address

quintessential

adj : representing the perfect example of a class or quality



email returned - address no longer valid

clue above should sufice tho !

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Is the link "missing"?

Only joking everyone, in that sort of mood today you'll be relieved to hear!

JIB
Have replied to your e-mail.
TUPPENYCAT
BRILLIANT answer!

Hi Swish

I am not making much headway with this over the last couple of visits (although the selections may have been). You may have to lead me to the answer, or if not lead, then help me to be up there for a while.

?

More profit for the Quintissential!

Well Done Swish!

B.C starts a thread called ABILITY,So what happens.The same as always,Any old crap is put up.

B.c
When you recieve the form books mate,I suggest that one of the first things you do when looking at a particular example,Is to collate the ability ratings of all the horses in the race for comparison.It has been said in the past that the ab rating is flawed,Of course it is if it's taken at face value.But it's what a particular horse has done or not done with it's rating that's important.

I notice that swish put a load of results up for posters to check out,Did he get accused of aftertiming.Did he bollocks,Seems to me like a case of if the face fits.There is only Seanrua who has mentioned the ab rating and B.C says he hasn't got time,Make time my friend.It needs to be done.

Investor,

As you know I have said more than once this a/rating later suggested by VDW is flawed. Not only when used at face value it is poor plain and simple. I think it only works when it mirrors the other way VDW suggested to gauge ability speed.

What use is this rating when it has the final selection way down the pecking order of ability? Now I don't expect anyone to go into great detail about how you use it, I would just like to hear (or see) a couple of examples why you think it is so important. As VDW did explain the basics of this rating I can't see how it would harm to explain how and why you think it works.

Part of my problem with it and it's users is you say you know it's flawed. You then proceed to use it to gauge the strength of the form from previous races. How can something that is flawed do this? Pk was joint 7th rated for ability in the Erin. His last run is considered good enough to win this race based on him being beaten by a horse that had the same rating as him (17) at the time of that last race. We are told but look what that horse (Drumgora) did last time out, he ran 3rd in a 116 race. The interesting thing is this 'good' run doesn't reflect in his a/rating, in fact it goes down from 17 to 13. (How does this reflect a horses will to win?) While all this is going on VDW says PK was selected because he was top on another set of ratings and joint top on the other. I don't think this a/rating came into the equation anywhere.

For me trying to make this rating work for the early races brings even more problems. These are based on how some say VDW viewed form. In some/many cases it has to be viewed as unique to say the least. This has to be done to eliminate horse that would otherwise be the c/form horse, and therefore the selection.

This is addressed to Investor but it is open to anyone. Shoot me down. I don't think this 'new' a/rating was part of the original methods.

Be Lucky

investor

so BC starts a thread - titled "ability"

and - in your view - any "any old crap" is put up !!

In 2 days - Swish puts up a couple of "postings" and they show a "Profit" -

You "whine" - yet you "Put up" - "Bugger All"

I know - "Exactly" - where swish and his "Mate" - are coming from !!

They have - "Bugger All" - connection to - "Your Approach " !!!

How about putting up some "postings" - on the Threads relating to - "Capability " and "Probabilty" ??

You have "Bugger All " - to say there - either !!

Mtoto
The whole pont is that Drumgora had shown improvement in higher class,Which as we know is a factor that is part of vdw's methods.As you say Drumgora had finished 3rd in a class 116.Prominent King ran the horse to 5 lgs giving it stacks of weight,Therefore P.K had also shown form in higher class (than is ability rating suggested) and was now 17lb lighter over the same course.And like i said before the Erin was a class 90.So basically he had shown good form against a horse that had placed in higher class than the value of the race being run today.There are various ways of deducing a particular horses form and this is just one of them.I'm sorry if you can't accept this but vdw did say "consistent form combined with ability in higher class is a force to be reckoned with".Do you not consider that the fact he ran drumgora close with the weight burden could categorised as part of that quote.It may be worth looking at beacon lights non formness.Beacon light was beaten by a much lower class horse in a race that had a penalty value lower than his ability rating the same thing be fell Smart tar against pegwell bay.It's all there mtoto you just hve to look a little deeper than the ab rating suggests.