Try again - "tomorow" - when you are - "sober"

T.C
I'm perfectly sober,Don't worry on that score.I have made many a post on this thread under the influence but not tonight.All i will say to you is,Don't preach to me about vdw,Because i am fine with my interpretation.infact,if you have nothing constructive to say about past examples or you can't be bothered to look at selections that have been put up in the past.Then you have n right to form an opinion at all.And i will say again i am completely sober.

I used to sell a product a few years ago now,And the sales manager always said to me that i was sincere.The reason i was sincere was the fact that the product i was selling was so good that even to this day when i use one around my house it deflates me.Complete waste of time,The same can be sid abot vdw's methods.i was a systemite for many years and sometimes it's hard to leave certain bets.But when you have a product that produces the goods on a regular basis and is better than most on the market,You stick with it through thick and thin.

quote:

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Jimmy
Member


posted December 17, 2002 12:19 AM
Investor

Swish may have mellowed but I've not. I see your still a lying sack of shit. And for God's sake learn to spell.

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T.C
oh,The good old days.You must be a sad bastard to dig that out lol.Iv'e noticed one thing about you,You don't like the truth.Arsehole.Goodnight

just to put you to bed -

quote:

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Jimmy
Member


posted December 18, 2002 02:07 AM
One of the truest posts on this thread was by someone who is no longer here. I think it is about time everyone was reminded of it.

posted November 25, 2001 06:40 PM
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The impossible dream ?

Ask yourself these questions...

1) Just how much time have you wasted trying to figure out VDW's methods.

2) How many of you are anywhere near making a profit from your betting.

Now, think on this...

1) Stop wasting your time chasing rainbows looking for a magic formula.

2) VDW's so called selections were always detailed in hindsight, he never took up a challenge of providing selections in advance. This served to perpetuate the "mystique" of the (alleged) person.

3) The whole thing was invented to sell more newpapers. (Same as Stewart Simpson- Always Back Winners).

4) Stop being so gullible and wishing that someone's going to drop a magic formula into your lap- life's not like that.

5) If you spend your time learning your trade of studying form properly, you'll find the profitable results that you seek.

6) Remember, strike rate is directly linked to odds, the magical VDW system of 80% winners at the sort of prices quoted DOES NOT EXIST.

7) I know that this will be hard to swallow, but I doubt if you spent as much time reading the articles and attempting to interpret them as I did. FORGET IT AND GET ON WITH YOUR LIFE - IF YOU DON'T, YOU'LL STILL BE LOOKING IN TEN YEARS TIME AND NO FURTHER FORWARD !!!

8) No person by the name of Che van der Wheil has ever been on the electoral register in Market Harborough.

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(pazuzu) - who was kicked out of the forum

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Saturday

Swish

Just to save you the trouble of “Typing it all out”

Here are your selections for tomorrow –

Ch
12.55 Asparagus
1.25 Chamous Royal
1.55 Gunner Welburn

Hay

12.05 Reno
1.10 Argento
1.40 Eternal Spring

Sa

1.30 Siegfrieds Night
3.05 Greenhope
3.40 Un Jour a Vasy

We

12.10 Danny Leah
1.45 Presumpuous
3.25 Mister Daves

Li

11.50 Tipo
12.20 Boundless Prospect
1.20 True Companion
2.55 Johnny Ebeneezer
3.30 Hurricane Floyd

Wo

8.30 Trace Clip
9.00 Serbell
9.30 Field Spark

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Now - can I give you my selections for a “Place” as well !!


Ch

12.25 Noble Action
!2.55 Asparagus
1.25 Native Ivey
!.55 Ballybrophy
2.30 Montefort
3.00 Charlies Future
3.35 Cornish Set

Hay

12.05 Reno
12.35 Marcell
1.10 Polyphon
1.40 Over the Creek
2.10 Take th Stand
2.45 Contraband
3.15 Special Conquest

Sa

1.0 Migwell
1.30 La Lambertine
2.05 The Last Cast
2.35 Azertyoup
3.05 Manx Royal
3.40 Smarty

We

12.10 Harley
12.40 The Nomad
1.15 Classic Capers
1.45 Beseiged
2.15 Chauvinist
2.50 ?

Tuppenycat,
Firstly, thanks for defending me and your very amusing posts.
Also thanks for posting Saturday's selections up, although you missed one out.
1.0
SANDOWN
OLNEY LAD.

Regarding your own place selections.............. Is that a puzzle for me to figure out?
Would it be possible to find a common link?
If so I shall have a go.
No point though if it is just your intuition and knowledge of form.
By the way, the reason your e-mail was returned was because my oold computer is knackered.
If you would like to chat about horses my e-mail, now is :
bobswish@hotmail.com.

Investor
I agree the initial results were back fitted, but todays which were posted in advance, made a small profit overall.
In any event the method is so cut and dried that it could not be fiddled by back fitting as JIB, Tuppenycat, and I guess Tannisworld have quickly figured out. (I told not one of them in advance).

Blackcat,
Of course I will tell you in the end (if it turns out to be any good in the long run) but , just for now, try and figure it.
Tuppenycat put up a massive clue.

This statement posted by Jimmy and now reiterared by Tuppenycat is so true
.
There is not a man alive who can dispute it.

6) Remember, strike rate is directly linked to odds, the magical VDW system of 80% winners at the sort of prices quoted DOES NOT EXIST.

In particular this:
Remember, strike rate is directly linked to odds.
I wrote elsewhere that the idea of 111 form figs giving 33% winners and 000 giving 2% winners is perhaps true but you will find that the prices are adjusted accordingly, in the long run.
Therefore, say, 111 will be 1-1 fav and 000 will be 33-1, hence the strike rate.
Therefore the form figures become meaningless because the bookies make certain they become meaningless by pricing accordingly.

So if it follows that bookies tend to price up according to form figs as a basis it must follow that picking a horse without the "right" form figs is a first step to beating the odds.

I asked on this forum, before, does ANYONE know how the tissue (prices in papers) are arrived at. Noone on here knows, or if they do, they aren't telling us.

I suspect they take the jockey into account, sometimes, like MCoy, but they didn't do too well on pricing his 20-1 winner this week or his 9-2 winner today.

I suspect (although I do not know) that the tissue men look first at:
1. Form figures
2. Jockey
3.trainer
Except in non-hcps where they will go:
1. speed figs
2. form figs
3. jockey
4. trainer
This is only a guess, but I reckon it is a pretty good one.
ANYONE out there know any one atall that decides the tissues?
How do you get a job deciding tissues?
Do the men who decide the tissues bet?
If so do they win?

Tuppenycat
Almost certainly it could be improved with filters, but bloody hell man, let's give it more than 2 days before we decide.

It might be bollocks any way.

Blackcat,
My mate Maurice (the dead bookie as you say (a little hurtful, by the way))
Was the man who first thought of it because in his life he took 1000's of bets and spotted this common link between a lot of handicap winners.
It may not be so, he never made any notes or owt like that, but I sat with him many times when they went in (or placed).
Only one way to find out.

Swish - looks like you might have discovered -

VDWs - "2nd Numeric Picture"

He did say -

quote:

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When you have found it - you will have the same horses - that I have !

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It certainly involves some of the "probability" element in the "Winners" equation .

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

My placing posts are certainly nothing to do with my own feeble efforts

just again from observations of results

there is a common link tho - but not as clever

I wouldn't bother looking - Its probably a load of bollocks anyway

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Ah, I've looked at the card and spotted the "old Maurice" link at once.

Probably as good as any " blindly-followed system", I guesss.

Logic could be to do with favourable weighting; I know a gang of old timers in the bookies who are always on about this - when they win!

The subject of "tissues" has interested me for years, Swish.
It seems to be even more " hush, hush" than VDW's missing link.

All I've managed to glean over the years is

a) a "bookies only" tissue does actually exist. It's said to be hard to get, and I've never managed it.
Coming back on the train ftom Ascot one time, I watched a bookie going thru a bundle of white paper print-out sheets ( looked like cheap photo-copies). He wrote here and there with a biro, then put a criss-cross line over most of the sheet. Then onto the next.
Someone's told me that this was just his " twist sheet".

b) On many, many occasions, I've seen bookies pricing up from thr Racing Post. Lazier ones just copy the others. Nobody likes to be out of line, and there's always a geezer who prompts them to shorten up, if they're long about one.

Personally, I've believed for years that Ladbrokes control the whole goddam shooting match.
Certainly, the bookies are frightenred to death when the Ladbrokes Man comes in the ring! You'd think St Peter himself was coming!

c) The RP betting forecast is done by "Spotlight" who writes up the analysis and verdict. You'll see there are several Spotlights and I expect they have a fair back up staff or sub-contractors someplace.

I never forget that the RP is a bookies' paper. Just look at the adverts.

d) nowadays with everyone wired up ( probably to Betfair which is probably controlled by the bookies, by now) it's hard to know what's going on.

Btw, if anyone tells you that " weight of money" on course has anything to do with it - don't believe it!
And, some bookies DO gamble; many lay off on betfair. It's a right merry-go-round.

funnily enough this did turn a profit of 33.78pts last month , albeit helped by a 50/1 winner.5/1 and less made only 3.78pts of that , the remainder of 11/2 and bigger made the other 30pts so a possible filter there to reduce the amount of selections.

The 50/1 must have been a humdinger on BF!

Hi Swish

I certainly meant no offence.

I had been told what the answer (probably) was, and if correct, would not have needed your other ideas or the input of a bookmaker. Hence my reference to "my trusty pin", which had more in keeping with the answer provided to me.

Therefore, I assumed that the bookmaker was a red herring. Please accept my sincere apology.

BlackCat

Placing Selections -

Ch

12.25 Noble Action - 2nd - 4/6
!2.55 Asparagus - L
1.25 Native Ivey - L
!.55 Ballybrophy - L
2.30 Montefort - 1st - 9/4
3.00 Charlies Future - 3rd - 11/4
3.35 Cornish Set - 1st - 15/8

Hay

12.05 Reno - L
12.35 Marcell - 2nd - 4/5
1.10 Polyphon - L
1.40 Over the Creek - L
2.10 Take th Stand - L
2.45 Contraband - NR
3.15 Special Conquest - L

Sa

1.0 Migwell - 1st - 4/1
1.30 La Lambertine - 1st - 13/2
2.05 The Last Cast - 2nd - 9/2
2.35 Azertyoup - 2nd - 5/6
3.05 Manx Royal - L
3.40 Smarty - L

We

12.10 Harley - 1st - 9/2
12.40 The Nomad - 1st 9/4
1.15 Classic Capers - L
1.45 Beseiged - NR
2.15 Chauvinist - 1st - 4/7
2.50 ?
3.25 Fashions Monty - 1st - 10/3

Haydock buggered it up !

Mtoto
Moving on from my post yesterday about horses showing form in higher class.A lot has been said about the ab rating being flawed,here is an example of using it to uor advantage to find a "winner"

We have horse A with an ability rating of 56.In it's previous run,It ran a horse rated 251 finishing 2nd btn 8lgs over 2 miles at cheltenham class 302.

In the race in question he comes up against a hose rated 236 that has been droped from class 638 to 81 to collect on his last 3 runs.

So to conclude the horse in question has shown form against a horse that is rated higher than the top ability rated horse in this particular race.The class of race they run in is class 232.A great piece of placement by the trainer.

Investor

Can you answer this?

HCAP RACE £50,000
CONDITIONS RACE 50.000

the top weight in the handicap is rated 145
there are 3 horses in the conditions race rated 168, 165, 160 that finish 1 2 and 3.

which is the highest class race in your opinion?

**** knows