Investor,

I only calculate that a/rating when I'm looking at the old examples. If you wish me to comment on your last post i'm sorry but you will have to give me a clue. Which race are you talking about?

I think a very good example of the flaw was Take A Stand today at Haydock. To think he was dropping in class takes a lot of imagination.

However give me a clue to the race you are talking about.

Be Lucky

well according to the VDW abilty rating both winners would get the same number, £50,000 divided by 100

thats clearly wrong surely

Mtoto
I didn't want to aftertime,So i tried to do it a different way.It was the 2.05 sandown

you are quoting ability figures Investor but don't seem to be bothered that they are flawed, is it a case that if you ignore the reality it will all come out in the wash?

sorry but you confuse me sometimes

Mtoto
Take the stand wouldn't have been considered mate,Because there were horses that had shown form in higher class,And chives was one them.

Ectoo
they are only flawed when you don't know how to use them.of course i'll confuse you because remember that journey of a thousand miles beginning with one step.Well you haven't taken that step yet,So i would hazzard a guess that until you do,You won't have a clue what i'm on about.The moral there is either take that first step,Or stay confused.

I think you need to understand the difference between a purse value and actual race class Investor.

Until you do, you will be rating a National winner higher than a Gold Cup winner.

Is that what VDW would have wanted for you?

More Daft Selection to "place" tommorow !

I hate the AW - but I should have followed the idea though today as Lingfield produced 7 from 8 thats the "Gummy Curse")

However -

Kelso

12.15 - Neckar Valley
12.45 - Alices Old Rose
1.15 - Waltzing Along
1.45 - Page Point
2.20 - Yuor a Gassman
2.50 - Gatograde
3.20 - Glenfarclass Boy

War

12.30 - Kings Rock
1.00 - Torche
1.30 - Vicario
2.00 - Artic Spirit
2.35 - Lin D'Estruval
3.05 - Finzi
3.35 - Golden Measure


------

Swish selections are -

Kel

12.45 - Flaming Heck
2.50 - Hugo de Grez
3.20 - Northern Minster


War

12.30 - Conroy
2.00 - Albavino
3.05 - Finzi




tc

Ectoo
Listen to me,I have been following these methods on a proffesional basis since last christmas.And they work for me,You can think/Say what you like,i have done enough trawling through form books to form a picture and get what i consider to be a good grip on what these methods are about.When a race comes along i can take it apart using the factors that vdw gave and contrary to what you or anyone else who hasn't started the journey believes,These methods are very good.That's all i have to say on the subject.like i said before ,if you want to stay confused then don't take the steps that are required no skin of my nose.Maybe one day Black cat will be able to help you all out.He will have the form books soon.I'm not going to dot I's and cross t's for those that can't be bothered to try and understand these methods.

i'm not trying to learn Investor, just trying to work out how you get by when you patently don't understand race class..you aren't alone though from what i've seen today

I won't bother you again as it's like pulling teeth

Lol.Thank **** for that.

Ectoo
One final thing i have to say,it is you who doesn't understand race class.Your way maybe,But not in the way that vdw portrayed it.And that doesn't include backing pipe at cheltenham or nicchols at chepstow.They are systems vdw most certainly isn't

it's not me that thinks the National is a better class race than the gold cup..it's you.

it's took me a while to work you out Investor

I've read your posts on this board tonight and I think I know what your game is.

I'll leave you in your little world...put the light off when you've done.

Ectoo
say what you feel,I do.I don't give 2 shits about this thread and iv'e said so.So come on get it of your chest.I feel good for doing it,You may feel the same i would love to know what you have gleaned about me tonight.Its got to be more than you know about vdw's methods and that is a cert.

My apologies to all. Especially Johnd, JIB, Swish, Investor, TC, pkboy, Ectoo, Gummy and the Moderators. Probably to Ectoo more than all.

I tried to act as a self-appointed arbitrator on this thread. That was not right. Just because I was not enjoying the forum because of the bickering, doesn't meant the rest of you weren't.

It is clear to me that several of you enjoy the argumentative process.

So I'll just try and bite my lip as I did all those years ago...

Eight Old Ladies

My 7 aunts and grandmother would find things to argue about. And boy, could they argue. God knows what about. I don't actually remember what they were screaming about now. Nothing dramatic happened as I recall. In those days, there was no sordid goings on (that I know about anyway). But scream they did. And then, at the end of the afternoon, when they came to kiss my nan goodbye, they would hug and kiss each other.

Amazingly, they would watch the racing without a cross word being spoken! But then, in the late 60's / early 70's, they wouldn't have known about the Van der Wheil Method, would they!

Blackcat,
No harm done mate, I know you did not mean any.

Tuppenycat,
Ok then, after today's crap results,
I shall split them on Sunday between, ones in top 4 (?) speed figs and ones that are not.
Perhaps nothing will come of it but it keeps me busy.

Ectoo,

In a post a little further back in this thread, (at least I think it may be this thread but there seem to be so many) you seemed a little surprised we could agree on a couple of points. I think you would be surprised now many things we do agree on.

You said you knocked up that little idea for judging ability, can I ask what is your normal method as it isn't that one? Can I also ask how you would have gone about before the OR was readily available? Say back in the late 70's.

Do you think having a method of judging ability is a must, or was it just a talking point?

Investor,

Going back to that race, I think you are working under a few assumptions. Just because he won a lower class race doesn't mean that was the best he could do. He was changing disciplines, when most horses do that they are dropped in class. The next assumption is the horse beaten by 8 lengths came anywhere near beating the winner. Even if he had why can he take/borrow the a/rating that belongs to the other horse? This thinking stems back to PK in the race before the Erin. Thinking that is used by others to make the example work, and then held up as VDW's thinking. Once again with this example it works the way I think VDW worked the Erin. No, I'm not claiming it I didn't look at the race until it was mentioned this evening.

If you think the rating is flawed why continue to use it? If you can see it can classify the class of a race incorrectly why use it to incorrectly classify the strength of the form?

Be Lucky

Mtoto
Bloody hell,Do you read my posts properly.I said the rating is flawed if you DON'T know how to use it.Wether you like it or not,Or wether you can accept it or not.Contraband was a good placement by the trainer.Made in japan was no longer a form horse imo therefore he didn't have anything to beat." a horse is often raced above it's ability before being dropped to collect,remember you don't just look at the horse in the race,You also have to look at horses a particular horse has shown form against.Contraband had run Fundamentalist to 8 lgs and was now taking on a lower class horse that had to be dropped to a class 80 to collect.Which was way below his ab rating.

Mtoto
What you must remember is that the horses vdw metioned had shown form above there ability.I'm sure you understand that.So let's take our old friend Roushayd.Everybody is convinced that this revolves purely on speed figures.Vdw said That Roushayd was " now coming to the boil"was this because of his speed figure alone,No it wasn't.What was Roushayd's ability rating and what class was the race he had just shown form in.You will argue that vdw didn't use the ability rating at that point,But you are very much mistaken.

Things are getting a bit mixed up and confusing with all these threads and discussions, but here's a simple point that came to me from America.

Some handicappers ( horseracing punters) were debating speed figures and pace, which they're all into big-style.

One point, that all agreed, is that horses run faster when they're in better company.

So, maybe this is a good reason for our checking what a horse did in its highest class races. Not too far away from " speed in class" now, are we?
Could it be that achievement in the most valuable races IS a true measure of horse ability? Is this what VDW was banging on about?

If we accept any of the above, then I'd say it all stems from the basic fact that the horse is a HERD ANIMAL, whose main social instinct is to keep up with the group.

Witness Well Chief yesterday. Never mind all the arguments about OR last time/next time.
The critter pulled out all the stops to keep up.

Actually, I've seen similar scenarios with small soccer teams taking on the giants in cup matches.
The big difference seems to be that the top players can repeat the good efforts, whereas the gallant underdogs cannot.

Consistency??

Perhaps it's worth thinking about.