T.c
If you don't think it works then why do you spend so much time,Wasting time.It's not just a matter off pre race posting.You want the full bag of mashings.How would you have the slightest clue wether it works or not,If you make that assumption just by reading the literature (if youv'e got it )Then i could just about understand that,If you made the assumtion after looking at the examples in depth,Then you are either blind or stupid.Do you have the form books?

Jib
Why oh why didn't you take up my offer,You could have put T.C out of his misery after a couple of months the frustration is killing him.

Hi Investor.

As much as I would like to, I cannot help you in regards to your answers as I do not have the relevant form books.

Want an analysis - try this !- He got it wrong - as I think did Guest on his last post - That does not matter - We can learn from both right or wrong "Pre Race" posts -- we learn "Bugger All" from contrived "Back Fitted " posts !!




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Subj: Ante Post Bet and Analysis
Date: 24/9/2004 5:09:38 pm GMT Daylight time
From: guy@mathematician-betting.co.uk
To: tuppenycat@aol.com, <tuppenycat@aol.com>
Reply-To: "Mathematician Admin" <webmaster@mathematician-betting.co.uk>
Sent from the Internet (Details)



Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Free Service Message


Today I am just concentrating on Tomorrow's Tote Jackpot Handicap (Saturday Ascot 3.35)

I fancy FREE TRIP

This was given out to members earlier this afternoon and some heavy hitting members have already knocked in the advised price.
I expect many of them will be trading back on the exchanges at lower odds tomorrow to lock themselves into risk free bets.
(If you don't understand what trading back and risk free bet mean then ask by emailing
webmaster@mathematician-betting.co.uk with your query)

Full preview and reasoning to this bet can be read below.

The FREE TRIAL of the Race Stat Service has still a few days to run before we close it.
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Join up and you can join in discussion of this race and tomorrows other races on the members message board.
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Ascot 3.35 Totejackpot On Saturday Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (B1) (3yo+) 7f

Funfair 5/1 , Ettrick Water 11/2 ,Royal Storm 7/1 , Boston Lodge 10/1 , Free Trip 10/1 , Mine 12/1, Material Witness 14/1 , Traytonic
14/1 , Millenium Force 16/1 , Greenslades 16/1 , Kehaar 16/1 , Naahy 20/1 , Umhoomagoo 25/1 , Grizedale 25/1 , Red Romeo 25/1 ,
Bahiano 33/1. ( Reserve Runners = Kool , Master Robbie)

There are some Good statistics that might allow us to find an edge in this race and Strike before the Ante Post Market closes. With the Reserves , there should be 16 runners and 4 places and what looks an open handicap can soon be whittled dowm to a small group despite this race having been responsible for several shocks in its recent History. (We are going back to the 16 renewals since 1986 for the stats) .

There have been several shocks. In fact 9 of the 16 winners started 12/1 or more and 7 of the 16 winners started 20/1 or more and with only 1 Favourite winning from the 19 that were either Fav or Joint Favs, its clear we should not be too worried about prices.

The First Angle is AGE as this race has been dominated by Horses aged 3, 4 and 5 year olds

Horses aged 3 are 7 from 131
Horses aged 4 are 6 from 125
Horses aged 5 are 3 from 54
Horses aged 6 are 0 from 42
Horses aged 7 are 0 from 12
Others are 0 from 5

Thats 59 Horses aged 6 and over that were beaten in this race . That Rules out MINE 12/1 , MILLENIUM FORCE 12/1 , MATERIAL WITNESS 14/1 and UHOOMAGOO 25/1, and its not hard to imagine that at least 1 of the younger horses can improve past these older types . These horses do Fail other stats as well which I will refer to later in the analysis , but I am comfortable about swerving these older horses. After all MINE 12/1 is 3lbs higher than his highest ever winning Mark. MATERIAL WITNESS has never won within 5lbs or his mark. UHOOMAGOO is 9lbs higher than his best ever winning mark , and I feel its Unlikely that these 3 horses will be able to achieve something they have never shown capable of before, in light of the fact this race is usually won by light weighted improvers and younger types. MILENIUM FORCE is a Class Runner and has won a Group 3 , but he hasnt had the best, or traditional preperation for this race. He did win this in 2002 but that was from a 20lbs lower mark. He also Fails the Absence Statistic that says Only 1 horses from 56 that tried won this when racing within a week. Only 1 winner from 56 that attempted to win this is a pretty poor strike rate, And the only winner was WHITE HEART (1998) for Mark Johnston who then went on and won a listed race, a Group 3 race and then a Grade 1 race race in America proving his undoubted class. I dont see MILLENUIM FORCE doing that this year , especially as he was racing in France only last Saturday .


************

WEIGHT

Weight is the Next Strongest Angle and the Statistics say that you need to Stay with horses that carried less than 9st 5lbs.

Weight - Horses with 9st 5lbs or more struggled and were just 1 from 65

Thats a Pretty Grim statistic for High Weighted horses. What convinces me about the strength of this statistic , are two important factors.
a) That sole winner was Decorated Hero in 1996 who was a Group 2 horse in a handicap. He went on and won 3 listed raced, 4 Group 3
races and 2 x Group 2 races so you can excuse him as being totally exceptional to the rule.

b) If you look at the 65 horses that failed this stat , Not one of them managed to come 2nd in this race. Its not as if several Topweights were beaten in photo finishes. They just havent been competetive and only about 6 of the 65 managed to finish in the 1-2-3-4.

It isnt about Horses "Not being able to carry the weight" . This task isnt the problem. Its about the horses at the top of the handicap there because they deserve to be , and the handicapper has almost entirely caught up with them and had the time to rate them properly, and these types are fast running out of improvement and are vulnerable to younger improving types that are "coming of age"

Thats Why I feel we should rule out horses at the Top of the weights. Some of these have already been "rejected" through their Age anyway. The horses that Fail this stat are MINE , NAAHY , MILENUIM FORCE , MATERIAL WITNESS , ROYAL STORM and the well fancied FUNFAIR (5/1) . FUNFAIR has 9st 5lbs and has Fallon on board, and it would be Foolish to rule him out solely on this statistic ,
as had he had 1lb less he wouldnt have failed the Statistic. However I am still keeping FUNFAIR in the "rejections" list as he does fail another statistic later on thats also quite important.

************

EXPERIENCE

What this race takes , is a lightly weighted , improving younger horse , but you dont want them too inexperienced. It mustn't be forgotten that this is a very class Handicap for talented horses , on a Grade 1 track, and experience of this is important. You want a horse that has at least gained some experience before, and has ability and knowledge of what it takes to run in a tough handicap. You really dont want the very lightly raced types that have yet to learn their craft. The Following Statistics Illustrate this ;

1) Horses that had less than 9 career starts are just 2 from 66 . This included 7 horses that started Favourite , and 17 horses that were
1-2-3 in the betting market . The 2 Sole winners were way back in 1987 and again in 1998 with White Heart who as pointed out above
then went on and won far better races .

2) Horses that did not run in a Handicap last time are only 2 from 59 . Only 2 managed to win this and they were in the 1987 renewal where an exceptional horse managed to win this when inexperienced, and in 1993 with Young Ern who was an exception to the rule as that horse went on and ran 2nd in a Group 1 race (Juddmonte International) having won several Group races prior to that.
Thats why I would be personally keen to Oppose the really lightly raced types in this race as they may not have the neccesary experience to win this race , and history shows us that unless you are really exceptional , you cant get away with that.

From the remaining Types I would see KEHAAR as the most vulnerable. He has only had 3 starts. He won a maiden, and yes although he
did win a 16 runner handicap on his 2nd start , that was a) an easier race and now he is 4lbs higher b) he was suited by a heavy downpour c) the form looks unsafe and as soon as he stepped up to this Class last time he ran badly. He may prove me wrong, many win this and then win a Group race but if you back horses that ran 3 times in races like this over a period of time you will go skint.

************

FITNESS

You have to be Fit to win this race. Although the "Fitness" statistic wouldnt be as solid as most , it is still worth heeding as FUNFAIR Fails
the statsitic , the Ante Post favourite, and it gives us a chance to Oppose this horse on this Statistic, as well as the WEIGHT Statistic that he also fails (discussed above).

* Number of starts this year - Horses with less than 4 starts this year are just 2 from 33 . That was in 1987 , which we already know was
won by an exceptional horse, and again in 1996 with Decorated Hero who proved to be a Group 2 horse in a handicap (See weight stats)
FUNFAIR Has only had 1 start , and All 19 horses that had 0 , 1 or 2 starts that year and he would easily be the least proven winner of this in terms of number of races he has had to get fit. He is a a horse that goes well "Fresh". He ran very well on his 2004 seasonal debut, and he won last year on his seasonal debut so he clearly doesnt mind an absence and he is a horse that may well just be "best fresh". After all on his 2nd start last year He ran badly. I question his chance on any number of other levels as well . You could also question why Michael Stoute Let him go and why he now races for Amanda Perratt ? I would also want to know whether the Cambridgeshire is not his target ? Will he be ready for this with the Cambridgeshire round the corner ? After all he started 5/1 in the Cambridgeshire last year off "93" and now he is rated 10lbs higher . Would Amanda Perratt want a penalty for him in that race by winning this ? He has won off "94" but has lost all 4 times he has raced in handicaps since and its hard to imagine him as well handicapped, and if he was, would Stoute not have kept him as he has not changed owners either ? I just dont like him. FUNFAIR fails 2 important stats and offers more questions than answers for me

************

RACE CLASS

2 Interesting stats in this race are about Listed Class, and Group Class Runners.

1) Horses dropping from Group or Listed Class last time out are 0-37

2) Highest Race Class - You want a horse thats ran in Class B , but no higher. They had 13 of the last 16 winners (81%) from just 51% that ran . The Record of horses that ran in Class A or Above before at ANY Time in their career are only 2 from 147. Obvioulsy this statistic is tied up somewhat with the weight stats (Listed/Group Class runners have big weights) and cant be seen to stand out as a isolated statistic, but there are arguments that show the sense of why this happens. Horses that tried their chances in Group Class and then come back to handicaps are usually those that failed in Group Class , and often horses that are on the downgrade, or horses that have shown enough to be accurately rated by the handicapper, and we have seen this all season with many races like this won by horse who are "About" to start racing in Listed or Group Class, and NOT Won by horses that have already tried and failed in that Class. I would be sceptical about Opposing these 2 statistics. Here are the horses that Fail these 2 statistics.

Failed Class Rejections

1) Horses that ran in Listed/Group Class last time (0-37) -

Royal Storm 7/1 , Bahiano 33/1 , Material Witness 14/1 , Millenium Force 16/1 , Naahy 20/1 , Red Romeo 25/1 ,

2) Horses that Ran in Class A or Group Class before

Mine 12/1, Naahy 20/1 , Material Witness 14/1 , Millenium Force 16/1 ,Royal Storm 7/1 , Bahiano 33/1 , Boston Lodge 10/1 , Traytonic

14/1 , Red Romeo 25/1 and the 2 reserve runners ( Kool , Master Robbie)

************************

DISTANCE

7F is a specialists distance. There are many 6 furlong horses that dont excel at 7f, and many that drop down in trip and dont seem suited by this distance and several 7f handicaps are often won by specialist 7f winners. Stats that show this to be accurate are as follows

* Distance - Horses that come from a race that was under 7f last time out have a Poor 2 from 84 record . That was the 1988 winner (Macs
Fighter ) who went on and won in Listed Class , and White Heart (1998) who proved to be Grade 1 class in the States and good enough to bust other stats that year . The horses that come from a race under 7 furlongs last time have it to prove statistically.

This year we have 2 that Fail that test - Traytonic 14/1 and Red Romeo 25/1 , both who fail other stats as well

************************


PRELIMINARY SHORTLIST

So far the runners that have not failed Any of the above stats are as follows.

Free Trip 10/1 - Selection

Ettrick Water 11/2 - Danger
Greenslades 16/1 - Small Chance
Grizedale 25/1

GREENSLADES 16/1

I particularly like all 4 as they have all ran in Class B before , and no higher (like 13 of the last 16 winners). Four picks though is not
acceptable and the first I would rule out is GREENSLADES. He Has been punished by the handicapper for not winning. He was raised 4lbs
for not winning the Victoria Cup and all he has done is win a handicap off "85" and "93" may just be too high for him from This stable. He
has a chance and is statistically right but as a 5 year old, you would expect better handicapped horses with more improvement able to beat him in this race, especially as he is Drawn 10 and that may not be a good draw. He has a decent chance, but to side with a draw like that, I would want a horse thats seriously on the upgrade and from a powerful stable, not a 5 year old Peter Makin horse.

ETTRICK WATERS 11/2

He is statistically perfect as he has made the shortlist of 4 , but I dont want him on a point of value. He just looks a bit short at 11/2 . My first queerie with him is his age. Yes horses aged 5 have just as good a record as any other horse, but that is based on a 16 year record. If you take the last 12 renewals they have only won 1 race (2001 Downland a 40/1 shock in heavy ground) . The 3 wins that this age group had were in 1990 and 1992 besides that "Shock year" , and in the last 12 years Horses aged 3 and 4 have dominated. I would want a 3/4 year old over a 5 year old myself. I also dislike the fact that he has now won 5 handicaps in 8 starts , and has shot up the weights a total of 21llbs.

He now has an extra 5lbs taking his mark to "99" having stated winning off "78". I wonder now whether he has enough improvement to defy the weight rise and the penalty having already improved so much this year. I suspect Luca Cumani agrees as he has booked a 3lbs claimer to take some weight off his back . After all, an artice in this weeks Racing and Football Outllok exposes the fact that horses that have won 4 or more handicaps before struggle badly (1 from 45) and they also have a very poor strike rate with "Placed" horses winning over 4 handicaps.

Another thing I dont like about him is that twice he has been beaten when stepped up to Class B company. Any rain may also be against him as he does need it on top. I also think his draw (9) is another obstacle to overcome He has a sound statistical chance but when I see FREE TRIP at twice the price with twice the improvement in him I have to prefer his chance.

GRIZEDALE 25/1

GRIZEDALE may be 30/1 but he is still a very dangerous horse to reject , as he was 2nd in last years race when 2lbs higher in the
weights, and when carrying 3lbs more than he will be doing this year. He ran poorly last time, but he did the same in 2003 before running a huge race . This year he has had 4 starts, hes ran 1 good race and 3 poor races. I Didnt like him at all on Video last time. He ran in
snatched, didnt settle well and just hasnt looked like a horse about to win. You have to be careful though. He has a rails draw (usually an
advantage) and many winners of this race have ran well down the field on their most recent start before winning this race. I think he HAS To be Value at 30/1 (exchanges) much as he cant be the selection on current form.

The Selection - FREE TRIP 10/1

FREE TRIP is a Very interesting runner who is clearly on the upgrade, and won a 0-98 last time out very easily over a Mile. Gosden is on
record as saying he is best at 7f as he has so much speed, he is the right age, is statistically perfect and has plenty of improvement in him. John Gosden has always liked this race. He had the 3rd in1992, the 6th in 1993 and in 1995 the runner up with Decorated Hero. That horse went on and won the race in 1996 in the style of a very class animal . In 1998 he went very close again with Mubrik (4th) . In 2002 Demonstate was serioulsy fancied for the stable but missed the race as a "puss pocket erupted in his foot," yet hacked up just a few days later. In 2003 he fancied Desert Opal but rain spoilt his chance and he withdrew the horse yet his "second string" still ran a close up 6th. This is a race that Gosden likes to target with young improving horses and this year I love his chance with Free Trip.

FREE TRIP looks a perfect type for the race and he was very impressive on video last time. Looking at potential problems he has 2. He is
described as a small horse, and has a middle draw (8) and horses drawn in the middle here over the years have had a miserable time. He is also described by his trainer as a "small field horse" . I Dont know whether I buy that. His record (won a 22 runner handicap, runner up in a 15 runner H,cap) suggests he will be fine and they could split here anyway. Richard Hughes will no doubt hold him up till late and you could have traffic problems , but he is potentially a massive improver that could repeat the stables 1996 win in this race. As regards to the Middle draw, it is a problem but this race has changed to 16 runners this year , (Its always been 25 + runners in the past) and that must help. His penalty wouldnt worry me as 5 horses have succesfully defied a penalty in this race , and I think he is a huge improver and given the run of the race could run these down . Many of his "dangers" are drawn badly as well , and whilst you may have to sit and suffer and wait for him to stake a late claim the fact is that he is the most exciting horse in the line up, has the most improvement and could be the Blot on the handicap needed to take this race. For me there is no chance he cant be value at 10/1 and a strong win bet is advised. I think its significant that Corals have ducked this horse and go 6/1 and Ladbrokes for me have made a big error in risking 10/1 to your money.


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8 of 12


Include original text in reply.

TC.

This service obviously does their homework, but that is what they are paid for, and punters buy this kind of thing which is fine if they can make a profit, which some do.

As you say he got it wrong, but that does not matter, some are still able to make racing pay using a different approach.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: raffingora,

I think it's gonna be difficult to get very far here, but I have an idea that won't hurt anyone's ego but mine (possibly, but I don't care).

In an attempt to get some feedback from those that know, I'll try post my idea of a VDW selection whenever I see one, on a daily basis.

All I'd be looking for in return is for the VDWers to each say " yea" or nay" to the question

" Is this a VDW selection?".

To make it real simple, a simple "Y" for yes, or, "N" for no will suffice. Just tap in one letter, I'll understand.

No need to worry about giving away anything on a plate, and no need for any bullshit or slagging, unless you feel like it. I don't mind at all.

My prediction is that

a) there will be very little response, other than excuses as to why this would not be possible.

b) by Christmas, the ratio of N to Y will be something like 60:1 at best.

We'll see ( I hope).

Sean.

Lay me 60/1 for 5p

quote:

---

Tuppenycat.

My knowledge is like some others on here "limited" hence the statement ("as far as my limited knowledge allows") so let me put you straight on that point, and I am the first to admit that this is the case, and have never pretended otherwise. However, there are certain instances in the 3yo area where I have concentrated on and have had some success, but in all probability no more than some others who use their own ways, albeit using vdw or not. Racing has never revolved around vdw and this will always remain the case. Having said that, I am still at a loss as to why some on here are determined to ridicule his methodology. I do not have many answers or an ego about vdw, just a quest to learn more about something of my own choosing

---

I Might well have writtenthat myself - except -

quote:

---

I am still at a loss as to why some on here are determined to ridicule his methodology.

---

-

I understand very well why some are determined to do so -

Prats like investor et al - set themselves up as the "self Appointed Authority" on the subject - and promote his ideas , to the exclusion of "All other considerations" -

as you say -

Racing has never revolved around vdw and this will always remain the case.

-

So why do they "Stick their Beaks in the Ground" and produce "High Pressure Shit" from their Backsides ???

T.c
I don't give 2 s...s about Mathematician,We are talking about vdw.There are no proper pre race posts on this thread anymore,By that i mean proper explanations as to why a horse fits the bill.I have learnt in life that there are givers and takers,And a majority will take as much as they can,But will give sod all in return,That's a fact of life.You pissed me off big style when you edited that post to Boozer.(Butter him up and he might squeal) so you can go and take a flying f..k at a rolling doughnut as far as i'm concerned,If and when i do give a selection i will mention it by name only more or less the same as most on here and you can work the rest out for yourself.

T.c
Yes,Just as i thought,The frustration is killing you,I'm not a self appointed authority at all,But i have at least spent time trying to understand these methods.Stick to your beloved massey.Because vdw is out of reach i'm affraid.

I'm not clever enough to understand laying, Raff, and gambling on here is prohibited, I believe!

We'll see.

It would be nice if some of the "N"s could appear before the selection has lost.

Investor: In Lee's absence perhaps you could take a stab at explaining what you think he had in mind with "something almost nobody would dream of".

My Achilles heel in my understanding of VDW (apart from the absence of the relevant form books that is) relates to Pace and Speed Figures.

VDW wrote (Winning Ways to Bet)..."You should not need to be reminded that the class against which a horse runs is not the same as the class of the race in which they compete".

I hope Mtoto will not mind me quoting some of his interesting snippets from the early days of this thread:

"...a low speed figure doesn't always mean a bad race".

"..the class of the race probably towed this horse to a very flattering speed figure".

"Good horses run faster longer, so the horse with a good speed figure but inferior class will struggle. He will not be able to have a blow, because the pace is faster longer".

Would anyone be willing to discuss the concept of speed figures and pace with me? - or at least point me in the direction of a good read.

Agree Trojan -

Thats why I highlighted Trilemma's (410 Nott yesterday) - poor speed figure - in his last race . (esp in the context of Roushayd)

Roushed had a dramatic rise in his figures - whilst Trilemma had an equaly dramatic fall - which by vdw reasoning ought to have ruled him out !

Yet of course - he "pissed all over" - Race the Ace !

Is it just that this "New" guy on the R.Post - is a "Clown" ???

Lee

I to backed double vodka on both occasions that you mentioned.Here is another few i backed on the flat this season using my understanding of the roushayd

04/06/2004 - Makfool
16/06/2004 - Mine
06/07/2004 - Alderney race
24/07/2004 - Court masterpiece
31/07/2004 - Pivotal point

Have you ever worked on the horses van der wheil later gave i.e Rivage Bleu, Travado, Valiant Warrior, Ever Smile, Killeshin and arthurs Minstrel

Thanks

Aeolus

Raffingora,

If we calculate long-windedness in the same way VDW calculated the Ability rating, in this case words per post, I have little doubt that you would be promptly led into the winners enclosure.

Investor

"butter him up and he might squeal"????
I know Nuuuuuuurthing
You old scallywag you

Epi
I have always respected lee,And i can't understand why certain posters are pooh poohing his posts,He is very knowledgable on vdw as is Guest,And they just get ripped to pieces by the dogs.Anyway enough off that,vdw said that now days a lot of things were done on a NUMERATE basis and this is no different with vdw.In a reply to F .Chester he said "The latter had gone a long way towards the ultimate conclusion" he was of course refering to F.chester.This is what f chester wrote.

pays to play percentages
LAYING it on the line,I think the key to mr van Der Wheil's method of preliminary evaluation lies in his own percentages.They support his device of adding together the figures for the last three placings and at the same time provide the means to eliminate a great many races.They direct attention to the races offering the most exposed form.

if no clear choice emerges from methodical study,One of two things should become plain,The competion is too keen to justify a bet or the winner must be looked for among the outsiders."

I havent put the whole piece in because what you need is in them 2 paragraphs.I will say that regard to the last paragraph the answer was TEMPEREMENT.But vdw is based around numbers.Having said all that without the form books there is no chance whatsoever of understanding what vdw or I am trying to say.That isn't bullshit,That's fact.

I've never known so much hot air blow as i have seen on these threads.

Quite astounding stuff.

The "puffing of the chest" knows no bounds within the framework of things VDW.

Are we sure that someone on here isn't Colin Davey and that he is Mr VDW

T.c
There were only 2 horses in that race,They finished 1st and 2nd.From a vdw point of view it would have been left.Don't try and twist it round because of what Lee said,He was offering an opinion based on vdw,There will be plenty more come along and they will be much bigger than even money.

ectoo -

you have damm nearly - "Struck the Mark" -

Not Colin Davey - but - v -close !!