ECtoo,

CVDW gave ideas and thoughts and a number of aftertimed selections. A few folk, who have investigated the selections, attach far more importance to the apparent "drivel" than such casual mentions and considerable intent and consistency is more than obvious through the whole range of both Flat and Hunter Chase selections. Your "discovery", such as "consider why a trainer places a horse at the head of the handicap in the first place" or "watch where a trainer places his charges" carries an amount of credit as a basic system and Fair play to you if you have the necessary temperament to make it round to next years Cheltenham or stick to these selections, or would you suggest interested parties pick up the Raceform Update where the Meeting information(by trainer) is available for £2.30, or wait "a la Pencher" for further "Jewels" from your good self?

JIB,

Where do you want to start the "filling in"? The best place, in my humble opinion, is with the 1978 Erin, so lets go. All thats necessary to make the betting decision is on the thread already and you must have heard about it or noted observations "in passing", that you may have thought were pertinent. Why do you think That CVDW thought Prominent King had the form "in the book" to enable him to make an Informed opinion that it would win?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pkboy,

PKB,

It would not surprise me in the slightest if most of the VDW examples had in fact been 'placed to win', nor that their trainers were accostmed to winning at their respective venues. The essence of horse racing success lies with the trainer as, like a general in war, he is responsible for how his troops are positioned and deployed.

Perhaps the trainers function was the bit that he mentioned that his readers would have to work out for themselves, then again perhaps it wasnt. Either way I dont think he made any clear references to the subject, only going so far as to metaphorically doff his hat to it.

Some VDWers, notably Johnd, have picked up on the phenomenon of placing, past and present, but that says more for their understanding of horseracing as a reality than to any guidelines handed down in the scriptures. By checking the horses class/ability they make a fair stab at prediction but have incurred the wrath of the class/form traditionalists.

Whilst the quoted references seem to be VDW making the right noises I dont think you can make any tune out of them. And only a vivid imagination could distinguish anything uncommon in their content. Unless of course you can correct me.

Thought for the day

In letter 20 (1979) of The Golden Years, VDW said 'Therefore, look for good class stakes and handicaps. At present values and these are constantly changing, a novice chase or hurdle with prize money of £3000 upwards will attract horses worth looking at, but elsewhere values are different.'

There is a website which calculates Inflation, Cost Of Living increases etc.

According to it, £3000 in 1979 was worth £9,300 at the end of December 2002 (the last date available for stats).

It seems to me therefore that today we should be looking at races worth about £9,500 upwards.


What do you think?

Black Cat
Have a look at the 2.50 Kemp,Taking the "method " into consideration.

Hi Investor

Yes, I looked at it briefly. But MIJ was a first time chaser today... BlackCat doesn't like that!

Cheers.

Perhaps Investor will tell us - "What it had done in Public" - as a Chaser ??? and why at 4/5 "On" - it was a value bet ??

Good opportunity here for some "Solid" - "Aftertiming" -

B.C
Under normal circumstances i would agree with you,But we have to take the relative merits of the whole field into consideration.What did it have to beat?.Hurdles to chases aren't so bad,It's chases to hurdles that pose difficulties.

T.c
I mentioned to Black cat a while ago about the methods of Colin Davey,Using just the 2 main factors has resulted in 1 of the last 17 bets losing and that was Well Chief which only went down by a head.

Jonto,

I think £10K may well be a good starting point.

It's generally agreed that VDW methodology doesn't work too well on the AW, but I managed to get a 2nd today at Southwell in a £13K race. The winner was no shocker, either.

Whereas, at Wolver on Monday, with races paying about 15 hundred, I couldn't get anything right trying similar methods!

I should point out that I'm not a VDWer proper, as I've never even read the books.
However, one kind member has sent me some of the basic material, which I'll read once I discover how to read pdf!

So, when it comes to VDW or computers, I'm certainly NOT the man to ask.

Hi Investor,

I forget now,
was it agreed by VDWers that CD understands and uses VDW, or did people say they thought his selection methods were different or better?

Investor -

Do you "Fondly Imagine" that - the Bookmakers - have not got - VDW - and _ the "Colin Davey System" -

Firmly "Locked into " their Computors ???

The Best - that you will ever do -

is to - "Rotate" - your Money !!!

T.C
Your quotes mean absolutely nothing to me.What we are talkingabout is CLASS and CLASS of opposition.I have had many good priced winners this summer 2 that spring to mind.Flamboyant lad 13/2 And mephisto 6/1,Unlike most on here i am realistic and understand the fact that most of the wnners will fall in the shorter end of the market.

Going on to today bare this in mind,We have a horse that has won a 58 grand grade 1 hurdle,And the nearest horse has won a 15 grand class d h/cap hurdle at huntingdon.For christ's sake open your eyes your pockets will fill up quicker.4/5 not very good in most peoples eyes and would more than likely have been left to run,By most.

Investor,

Obviously at 3pm today you thought Made In Japan 250K a good thing.

As the hours have passed it has obviously gotten better and better!

I see at 9:46pm you now feel so strongly about it that you feel inspired to lecture us about its glories. Do you have nothing better to do with your time?

Jib
Merely trying to be helpful.

Jib
Further to my last post,The horse you mention was not a good thing.But it had CLASS that was far superior to anything in that particular race.Even you can't disagree with that FACT if only you'll take a look.

Investor,

I actually had a bet on the damn thing as I'm pretty sure Swish did too. I'm not arguing about the horse, I arguing about your ambiguity and aftertiming.

Jib
I mentioned a while back to Black Cat about the colin davey method,All i did was put a post to him to look at the race with that in mind.T.c came up with some sarcy quotes.So i just cleared the matter up.I don't know why you get so upset,it's the only way i could check out certain horses when i didn't have the form books etc,I personally enjoyed trying to understand why these horses would have been classed as good things.When i did get the form books it just endorsed what i had alreagleaned from various posters on this thread,For which i thank them.

Seanrua
Please excuse me your post passed by unanswered for which i apologise.i personally believe that the basics behind Davey's method is very good.I will give you the 3 main ingredients so to speak.

1.The horse must be in the top 3 race class lto.

2.It must have an ab rating of 40+ and must be 20 clear of it's nearest rival.In short it must be top on ability with the 2nd rated having an ability rating of 20.

3. it must have won the most valuable race of all the runners.

Now what i would like you to do is check out

Made in Japan (yesterday)
Nas Na Riogh..wincanton
Rule Supreme..Clonmel

It may seem like a system,But it form a very good basic platform from which to start.This isn't aftertiming everything is easily viewed either on r/p website or the paper version.But always remember it never stops there.

Seanrua
Just so confusion doesnt set in.

Nas na riogh... ab rating 96 top nearest rival chamos royale ab 68.That puts N.N.R 28 clear won in class 214 which again is top 9 today was a chase though,That figure was prouced in a hurdle)Top 3 race class lto

Chamoss royale 180
Gildorrans spice 70
Nas Na Riogh 68.

Apply the same factors for Rule Supreme And Made in Japan.Hope you get the gist.

Hi Investor



Thank you.

BlackCat

B.C
No problem mate.Quick update
Spanish don 4/1
Azertiyuop 6/4
Alcazar 11/8
Total enjoyment 8/11
Moscow flyer 4/11
well chif lost
Made in japan 4/5
Nas na Riogh 5/4
Rule supreme 12/1

Could have included Rooster booster,But he went out straight away due to weight.Race class lto ruled Out Fundementalist but the 7 grand fto was just a livener,I was a bit pissed i let that one go.