there are no vw bets today. probably.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Nessie,

So... is that a N then?

Seanrua: I think Court Masterpiece is the natural selection, I've no real idea as to which, if any, would be the VDW selection, maybe Royal Storm?

Sean/Epi.

Court Masterpeice, it may look as though everything lines up here, but there is conflict with Kheleyf and Polar Way, making this a non event, in my opinion.

A question to all who have the form books that are needed for all the relevant races.

Would anyone be prepared to sell these items, or even loan them out to myself providing I first sent you, in cash, any amount you requested as a holding deposit for any period of time that you thought fit.

This is a genuine offer.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: raffingora,

Raff
I understand your point r.e Court Masterpiece.He was subsequently put into a gp 2 class 580 over a mile and then upped slightly to class 600 over 7f and showed improvement with a s/f of 90.

In contrast kheyleyf Has run twice over this distance,Winning a class 377 over 7f gp3 and finished 3rd behind Bron and suggestive,Then Whacked up in class 2213 gp 1 where he was taking on the likes of six perfections over a mile .

Polar Way was dropped a long way in class lto,But has a good piece of form with Court Masterpiece.He was giving court masterpiece 5lb on that paticular day and going down by a nk.Today they meet on level terms.The run behind suggestive when dropped in class doesn't look good,But it appears something was a miss.Maybe the Warwick race was just a confidence booster,But i agree with your conclusion on the race.

Seanrua

“Having said that, if Fallon winsa on Damson, forget it!”

Are you saying that Damson is not a VDW bet because in my view it is a virtual certainty to win.

For what they are worth my thoughts on Court Masterpiece are on the Supreme Stakes thread.

investor.

It bothers me that kheyleyf was beaten by suggestive, and in turn how far Polar Way had to be dropped (and where the race was run) last time in order to collect.

"Class in permanent form is temporary"

Seanrua,

You ask for a yes or no about Court MasterPiece. My answer would be a no, but that is only my opinion. I have no idea how VDW would look at this particular race. He did say if your not happy don't bet.

How/why could I not be happy with him? A course winner, consistent, fast, in short he seems to have all the requirements. Investor has tried to explain his reasons for seeing conflict and this is much better than just saying conflict. I think he is saying the conflict is based on the weight turn around. I not look at weight so I can't use that reason. My reason for doubt is the course, all though he is a course winner has he beaten horse of this class on this course? For me no. He is best on a stiff course in a true run race.

My main worries are the obvious dangers Kheleyf and Polar Way. Of these I think Polar Way is the real danger. I think he would have held CP if the Ascot race had been run on this course. I think he was stopping up the hill, there is no stiff hill here. If/when PW wins the pundits will say it was the turn around in weight that beat him.

So no bet, that will please the folk that think the VDW follower's never bet. I put the doubt in the probability column. What would VDW have made of the race we can only guess?

Raff,

Can I ask why you think PW had to be dropped that far to win? Is it not possible he could have won a better class race if tried? I would prefer to look on it as a nice bit of training, picking up £10,000 in a prep race.

Be Lucky

" Are you saying that Damson is not a VDW bet because in my view it is a virtual certainty to win.".

No, Garstonf, I haven't even looked at that race from my idea of a VDW perspective.

I was just justifying my faith in old Fallon re my Santa Fe selection.

I follow the jockey a lot and i feel if he gets the big one up (Damson) he may not "put it all in" on SF.
Conversely, if he goes down in a tight finish on D, he'll be so mad, that he'll carry SF over the line in fury - about four lengths ahead of the others!

This has fk all to do with VDW, of course.

Mtoto.

In regards to Polar Way, it is virtually the same pattern as last year where he had to be dropped to a 7k race at Doncaster in order to win. It is my thought that PW's target was the race at Ascot where he was beaten into second.

Your point is a valid one, but I still feel on closer inspection the pattern is not a coincidence.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: raffingora,

Another remarkable instance of the importance of a trainer placing his horses to win with guile and deception was the 405N.

Gosden who I ve been trying to give you the nudge nudge wink wink about for the last fortnight was until this morning 16/55 (+48pts) in 2yo non hcps at Newmarket.

In the 405N he had three runners Sparkford (8/1), Sandy's Legend (14/1 I think) and Pevensey (Danehill, 16% progeny SR at 8f) w50/1 (form figs -60).

To quote our dearly beloved Investor 'Get wise!'

Jib
With all due respect,I can't find any example of vdw backing a horse in a maiden,A very well done to you if you backed the horse.From a methodical point of view the page was turned over very quickly.

Investor,

Whether VDW struck wagers in maidens or not has nothing to do with it. If you refuse to recognise that there are other powerful factors at work in racing you are unlikely to see many smiles on the faces of your naked ladies.

Unless they're independently rich naked ladies, my prefered tiple I must admit.

Court Masterpiece, 6th of 11, at 3/1.

Thanks to all who gave input, and congrats to those who mentioned the 14/1 winner, Mac Love.

It seems that CM was almost a VDW selection but, generally, there were reservations that made it a "no-bet" race.

Among the negatives given were conflict, weight, course , targets.

As for the winner, he was tipped soley by Topspeed in the RP.
His Best RPR was equal to that of CM (133) but less than that of Polar Way (137).

By Cape Cross, he had won this month at the distance, as had Royal Storm.

Joint 6th in the RP betting forecast (12/1).

Prize money-wise, he wasn't in the same league as CM.

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Lee

I to have worked tirelessly on these 6 horses for the last year or so.I find rivage bleu very frustrating.I have made very good in roads on valiant warrior.Have you got the book Bingham issued on this horse?

I find the class/form horse and the roushwyd methods fairly ok and i have achieved a 75 - 85% strike rate using these methods over the past 2 seasons.I also follow a number of trainers and i have learned the way they operate and place there horses.Amoung these are Peter harris who in my opinion placed 1 to win at goodwood today,Hughie Morrison,Mark Prescott and William Haggas.

Jib
it has everything to do with vdw,There ar oer ways of knowing when a traier is sending a horse out to bring home the bacon.And it has nothing to do with sire stats,I understand that yourself and others are trying to bring things up to date.But you won't even try to understand the methods that this very thread is all about,Why not abandon this thread completely and start a new one and call it alternative vdw,Because like many of your responses to me with regard to vdw and his methods (negative) i personally have no interest in your sire stats,it's about class and form and what horses have achieved on the track john,End of story.

A point is that a price of 50-1 suggests that the trainer had no idea that the horse could win. More strength to your elbow JiB, good one.

Investor -

When you pay your membership and become a full member of the Forum - instead of the Parasite Status that you currently occupy -

Then perhaps your views as to what should or should not be discussed on this thread - might merit some consideration !

Until then - since the forum started by your own bunch of defectors has fallen apart -

Just be Bloody Grateful that you have a thread to post on at all !!

We asked Gummy to open up the thread to all comers as an experiment - If it isn't working we can just as easily ask him to close it down again !!

Remember also that acceptance to membership of this Forum is also subject to the approval of current members -

it is not simply a question of paying your cash !