Its nothing to do with its form against vouchsafe,

vouchsafe had been dropped from a class 220 to 116 to collect last time out at 12/1.

he went into the race against roushayd as a form horse but substantially up in class against a better horse, and with obvious negatives that gave him no chance.

he had done his "job" last time.

Hi Fulham
First of all may I take this opportunity to say how very much I enjoy reading your views on vdw , it's very much appreciated.

COLLATERAL FORM.

Fulham I hope you can bear with me on this one!
I'm probably way out of my debth even asking the question.

" The class of horse engaged is more to the point " VDW.

I'm not sure what ability rating Smart Tar had, but going into the Mackeson, vdw took the view that there was nothing to suggest a reversal.

They met each other and Pegwell Bay took his scalp.
What if anything can we make of this result?
VDW was noted as saying that Smart Tar had a lot of ability.

In the 1985 King George there was a long complicated line of collateral form which more or less involved all of the field , not forgetting Forgive'N Forget ( previous seasons Gold Cup winner )


Perhaps I'm wrong in how I'm interpreting what was said.
Presumably you must have a benchmark from which to work from and the " class of horse engaged " must surely be to the point.

All the best
Chris

Are you still happy with your way of doing things
Or have things calmed down a bit.

Was it a flash in the pan?
Are you still of the same bullish opinion as you were before your

2 winners out of 5 selections

Hi Fulham
Just seen your reply to Boozer.
As was said, I'm out of my debth.
Can I re-phrase my original question.
Did VDW afford any attention to the horses that any probable had met in previous races.

All the best
Chris

vouchsafe had been dropped from a class 220 to 116 to collect last time out at 12/1.

Yes barney but he didnt run till the next flat racing season for his drop in class,
and as far as I am concerned that dont count

Not a good example

[This message was edited by boozer on January 23, 2003 at 10:33 PM.]

Absolutely
It depends though on how you interpret class

Abiltiy ratings
Class ratings (prizemoney to winner)
Even Sf's

Mac,

I don't know if you still look in, but some of the things you said stuck in my mind.Your alternative view of the Roushayd method could make sense to me now in the light of other peoples later posts.Thanks very much.

Chris

VDW was always interested in the horses that had beaten, or been beaten by, those he was considering. An example worth considering is Baronet, which won the 1978 Cambridgeshire, and the comparison with Petronisi, also a runner. But in my view VDW used such comparisons principally to establish whether or not a horse was in form.

An example worth considering, too, is the 1985 King George where Burrough Hill Lad and Wayward Lad met, having raced against each other only a month previously. On that occasion BHL beat WL by 3 lengths, carrying 4lb more. In the King George, the two ran off level weights, which might have led conventional form analysts to conclude that BHL was the bet, and indeed the market shows this was the dominant view (BHL started at 4/5, WL at 12/1). Yet VDW made WL, who won, the class/form horse and a bet, and regarded BHL, who finished a well beaten fourth of five, as not a form horse. An excellent demonstration of the superiority of his approach compared with that of the conventional form analyst.

you have lost me

vouchsafe collected in mid june approx 2 weeks before the ONC.

As far As I can remember Vouchsafe marked his card then won the NTO next saeson

If I am wrong then I am wrong
Aint got the old books anymore

Or even next SEASON

you may well be right,

I am on about the form going into the onc which roushayd won.

In fact VDW gave mention of vouchsafe, as one of the three probables, in his analysis of the ONC.

Will have to do some searching on the computerised VDW publications

shhhhhhhhhhhhhh.................

I may be wrong but I think there is a reference to Vouchsafe marking the card in the Old Newton Cup
He won NTO 12/1
Albeit The next Flat racing season

No doubt someone will correct me if I am wrong

Yes i agree with all you say regards the 1985 King George but as was said with my last post, do you think that Forgive 'N Forget had any bearing on VDW'S evaluation.

All the best
Chris.

boozer,

after the ONC he came out in a class 70 and finished 3rd, that was next season.

he had a good chance as well although i have not looked in any detail at that race.

he gave up after that, and did not run again

What in your opinion is a indicator of a class performance?

And dont answer a question with a question

I must be wrong then

you are