Determined

The answer to your question as far as I'm concerned is no. There were too many uncertainties for a bet in the Champion Hurdle, alas the only race that I was able to look at in any detail today.

Just taking Landing Light and the unfortunate Valiramix, the former prevailed last April - by 3.5l at level weights. But only four months earlier, Valiramix had prevailed by 20l, giving Landing Light 3lb. Now, there are what I regard as solid reasons for thinking that Valiramix's success was falsely emphatic (particularly the going, and the fact that Valiramix had had a run and Landing Light hadn't). But on those two runs I could not be certain which would win the next time they met (and having watched a recording of the race, I am far from certain which would have finished in front of the other had Valiramix not fallen, though my inclination is that it would have been Valiramix).

In addition, there was conflict in ratings. Landing Light was miles ahead on the ability rating, having won more and better class races. But Valiramix was 5lb in on the Official Ratings, which I find a useful guide in non-handicaps.

Todays racing showed amply the reasons why a strike rate of 100% is impossible to attain. Bad luck seemed to plague a few runners today, but those who have bet successfully for any length of time will know that this factor evens itself out in the long run. VDW obviously based his findings on actual results as opposed to what might have been. This means on ocassions we will witness races lost at the last and sometimes gained at anothers expense.

Valiramix was obviously travelling well within himself when coming to grief between hurdles and it seems that for once the hype was well founded. However the evidence was not in the book beforehand and for every Valiramix type improver there are those that fall below connections expectations. Don't get me wrong, trainers such as Mr Pipe certainly know what it takes, but I prefer to follow VDWs advice and base final analysis on what a horse actually achieves in public. It does seem though that we lost a very talented horse today though and it is a reminder of the cost of the game for some. Tony Dobbin put things further in perspective with his post race interview following the last.

A not so clear cut case involved the finish of the Supreme Novices hurdle. Horses fall for many reasons and I'm sure many thought that Westender was looking like pegging back the winner just after the last. She actually started to pull away again close home, but as ever it is the result that counts. Anyone who thinks VDWs method only picks easy winners is well short of the mark. The important fact is the vast majority win in whatever manner possible.

Regarding Gay Chance, it's last run had been in much higher class at Leopardstown in the December competing in the equivalent race that Adamant Approach had won this season before finishing behind Like A Butterfly.

has anyone come accross a speed figure or race time for race 1535 (1979)???

thanks in anticipation.

Morning all,

I notice many have replied to me posts of yesterday. A big thank you.

I`ll read the replies in more depth when I get chance.

My work commitments are getting on top of me again.

Good luck to all today and lets hope all horses/jockeys come home safely.

Regards,

hello there..thanks for your response, and congratulations on your evaluation and subsequent winner in the 2.00 i kept my powder dry yesterday.

Day Two of the Festival and some tricky situations. Without adding too much, I'll list the class/form horses for the first 6 races and leave it for anyone interested to decide the leavers and takers.

Over The Bar is class/form with Rouble second on class/form.
Edredon Bleu is class/form with Flagship Uberalles 2nd on c/f.
Stormez is c/f with Secret Native 2nd on c/f.
Japhet is c/f with Colonel Braxton 2nd c/f.
Oa Baldixe is c/f with Manx Magic 2nd c/f.
Lady Cricket is c/f with Foly Pleasant 2nd c/f.

There is something to be found in the above, but remember c/f does not mean automatic selection.

give us a chance guest which race??

is it in the japhet race

Barney - there are 2 bets found, one in the Queen Mother and the other in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase. Apply the principles, check the form and they will be found.

thanks guest you are most kind

i,ve got one i will double check the other

guest

sorry to go on

is there any similarity to win of brighton,s comment in his letter vale of tears regarding little owl

We all saw what happened yesterday. We lost an old champion and a future superstar. The form book told us that Valiramix was the class / form horse of the race. How do I justify that?

The current seasons form is vital far more than what happened last season.

Valiramix beat Hors La Loi out of sight at Newbury and he is a proven Festival winner. Hors La Loi then franked this form in no uncertain terms by running close up to Landing Light and Bilboa in the Christmas Hurdle and then by beating Copeland (winner of the Tote Gold Trophy) at Wincanton. Remember its not the grade of race you run in that is important it is who you are running against and what they hvae done and go on to do.

Pipe never even bothered to enter Copeland for the Champion Hurdle. This gives confirmation to the fact that Valiramix was the Class / Form horse of the race as he had all the others covered.

I just feel robbed that he has not had the chance to have his ability recognised.

Anyway back to the form book to find the Class horse.

Hi Guys

Bad stroke of luck there, tough break, the fabulous Florence has found her way over here. You think I`m a pain in the wotsit.

Good Luck Mates

111
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PS, She wouldn`t be a "Guest", would she?

PPS It`s another crap night on the TV.
.

I wonder if it's going to be one of THOSE nights again,how interesting,Guest up all night picking a fav how wonderful,grovel,grovel and everyone talking in language cut and pasted from a Noel Coward wartime movie script,ok chaps,carry on,oh and you girlie,what's her name Florence,hope someone eventually answers you,but you know what ignorant chaps they are on here and how they tend to keep their powder not so much dry but shrivelled up.
Q

By the way, well done to Guest today he got a winner at the festival, one of his second bests.

Flagship Uberalles. What was the VDW line on this one; pick the shortest price fav of the meeting?

OK Guy`s

You win, I give in. I`m bored and going for a pint. I can only assume by your lack of response that you too, are all out celibrating your days success.

There`s one thing for sure; there was enough class and form today at the festival to sink a Battleship. So I`ll look forward to reading how you all did tomorrow.

Goodnight

111
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hi 3 legs i did shite lost a fortune

Hey What you all doing over here where is everyone tonight?
Regards..

BRICK

Barney What horses did you back and what were
the 2 that you thought Guest was on about?
Do you think Guest did his money?

Maggsy

Barney - VDWs reply to WIN of Brighton holds some very good clues. Well worth reading.

Snail - There is a lot in your post that I agree with and recent form is more reliable. Valiramix did beat Hors La Loi very easily at Newbury, but Landing Light also beat him with a good burst at Kempton along with Bilboa. The grey had certainly improved since last year and to the extent that his connections believed judging by the way he was running. These types are the exception mainly though.

So far at Cheltenham from 4 bets I have found 2 winners with a nice profit. The class/form combinations listed were not all selections as clearly stated beforehand.

In a round about way you seem to be getting the answer to your questions, Guest's strike rate is 50% with an average SP of 7/4.

Guest

If you had started off on this board the way you have posted the last couple of days you would possibly have gained the respect of a lot more people. All that most people want is honesty,no bull**** about secrets, and a willingness to help. Try Carnegie's book "How to win friends and influence people", it seems like you need it.

Jimmy