Sorry Jimmy, but I can't let your last post go unanswered.

Firstly, whoever said I was looking for respect, least of all from negative losers such as yourself.

Secondly, you have really shown yourself up with your statement directed at Swish about my strike rate and average sp. Two days and 4 bets is no measure of long term success, any fool knows the reasons behind that.

Here is a direct question for you Jimmy and your cronies - Have you or they ever posted anything of genuine interest or use on this board ?

As to your last suggestion, I think it is you who needs to get out and about a bit more.

That's all right, your apology is accepted.

Jimmy

Guest

Does this boil down to golden goal vs davids lad in that order, or can knife edge really produce a top performance after running yesterday - I'm not sure how to take such a recent run into account?

Chris

There have been no bets for me from a VDW viewpoint at the festival so far as the numerical picture has not shown up a clear "winner in the race" apart from Edredon Blue, where the simplest glance at form shows the horse beaten at level weights by Flagship last time out. With no prospect of a turnaround the likely winner was always going to be Flagship but where there is conflict between the 2 aspects its a case of no bet.
I would accept that Like A Butterfly and Moscow Flyer looked good bets to some but for me form and the numerical picture have to match. The strike rate VDW achieved is entirely due to only betting when everything seems to match with no negatives. This sometimes leaves long gaps between bets and the waiting can be exceedingly dreary as it can mean sitting out some exciting events. This can also mean sometimes that strike rate is achieved at the expense of profit in the short term. The stayers hurdle tomorrow however shows a case where everything seems to match and Barracuda looks to have a great chance. He may even go off at a reasonable price if value hunters seek to oppose him. Not a very original selection for the people wanting free tips but he does seem to have everything in his favour.
Regards,

Morning all,

Although I`ve only watched a recording of yesterday`s racing once and very quickly at that, what was clearly evident was how tiring the ground appeared to be.

The going conditions on the new course obviously will play a significant role today.

The class/form horses listed will now be subject to hard work,

Newhall / Giocomo

Barracouda / Bannow Bay

Golden Goal / Davids Lad

Copeland / Polar Red

*** with regards Gold Cup; I`m struggling.

Regards,

Guest

With regard to Landing Light's defeat of Bilboa and Hors La Loi at Kempton. He gave a hint in that race of what race he would run in the Champion Hurdle. He hit a flat spot 3 furlongs out and looked outpaced for a while. Champion Hurdlers don't do that. Yes he has a terrifc turn of foot but he needs the right conditions.

On Tuesday's ground this meant he was always going to have problems with the sharpness of the Champion Hurdle course (two bends and a flight of hurdles at the top of the hill). Leaving him having to try and make up ground running downhill. Fitzgerald was alive to the problem as he try to keep him close to the pace.
Run the same race at Sandown or Newbury on soft ground and he will beat those who finished in front of him.

Any views on Eluna would be appreciated. Not my type of race, but she looks the class form horse of the race. Her first Warwick win is very solid.

Eluna has to be a class/form horse also.

`one of these days I might know what I`m talking about`

Gold Cup - how many class/form horses are there ? I`ll keep working at it.

Snail - Regarding Eluna, I see the point you are making, but I prefer to base asessment on what horses have actually achieved at the time. Giocomo has almost certainly improved recently. I make the class/form horse as Newhall with Giocomo 2nd rated on class/form, but as always, being a class/form horse does not mean it is a selection or bet. Something airheads such as Jimmy fail to grasp. I'm sure you,Snail already are aware of this vital point.

Re Golden Goal/Davids Lad/Knife Edge,etc. The class/form horse is Golden Goal with Royal Auclair 2nd on c/f.

Other races show Baracouda as the class/form horse with Bannow Bay 2nd on c/f. Looks Like Trouble is class/form with Florida Pearl 2nd c/f.

I agree with Statajack that Baracouda looks a good thing, but only if the price is right. Further to Statajacks comments, I have to say I made a glaring error with Japhet yesterday (don't listen too much to trainers) as there was a bad flaw in his make up. Mistakes will always happen and I hold my hands up.

i am writing mainly out of inexperience,but surely your putting the odds against yourself,when you start playing in fields of 20+ i know the methodology has sound principles,but surely there,s a point where you must say no,regardless of the horses ability,so much can go wrong regards "I"

hello all..i feel there,s a race well worth a look,at southwell but is there conflict? "I"

CLASS/FORM HORSES.

Guest,

As always your thoughts are valuable and I am pleased to see me finding the same class/form horses as you.

TRIUMPH – form lines link a lot of the horses today but the more I look at this race the more I like Giocomo and Newhall.
On Warwick running Eluna looks to have the beating of Giocomo however since that race `G` has done nothing but improve and when upped in class.
Added to that he has no penalty today and his last race certainly produces winners of this race. He must run a big race today. Newhall has the beating of the Irish horses she has faced so far added to that I anticpate further improvement on todays better ground.
At the available 10/1 this morning they represent value but can anyone be confident in such a cavalry charge ?

STAYERS – Baracouda despite your positive comments and whom am I to doubt you he would not be a bet for me today at any price. In my opinion he`s racing against his toughest opposition to date on a course which may not suit his style of running, ie – similar to Landing Light he usually hits a flat spot in his races and I believe he may get caught out coming down the hill. Added to that I expect a significant improvement from Brother Joe today and also, how good is Bannow Bay

POLAR RED – everything in his favour today but not at 6/4.

GOLDEN GOAL – further study is required before I draw any conclusions. Initial thoughts are that he up in class today but he`s clearly on the up and trainer was originally going to wait for Aintree. Per gummy and Racing Post the horse is thriving.

GOLD CUP – the fact that only one horse has won the race for a second time since the 70`s worries me. That said, watching LLT storm up the hill 2 years ago certainly gives you confidence. The trainer certainly knows how to win the race.

Regards,

Guest and Statajack,

Well done with regards Baracouda. I bet you couldn`t believe the price. Mind you for along way was you a little concerned ?

Regards,

Guest

Yes, I do only use form / class horses as a starting point. I would never bet in a 20+ field as too much can go wrong but I study the form of these races (as they are normally truly run) as a good guide to the future. The Triumph seems to suggest what the ante - post market has suggested all along that the English Juveniles are very moderate (although Giacomo made a very made mistake goign down the back straight)

Also most importantly I want other things other than the form to point me in the right direction.

CELTIC PLEASURE

was celtic pleasure put away for the summer(1977) becuase the ground was to firm and the races to fast or was he injured???

I've been following Determineds and Investors rapid progress with interest and envy they are obviously getting there. As for me I can't progress beyond what a form horse is, talk about getting left in the stalls. I have been trying a different tack and am looking at the examples that have been given as not being a form horse and at present am busy with Idaho D'ox given by Guest as not a form horse for Saturdays 2.45 race at Sandown. Stuck again with this however as apart from dropping in class the performance does look like an improved one. Any nudges or boots up the backside gratefully received.

Thanks in anticipation.

Guest
Would Royal Auclair have been considered a good thing today?
Must say I enjoy your contributions.

Statajack - I get the strong impression that you only wait for those class/form selections that show the ultimate balance, as with Baracouda today who, as you say, had everything go his way and it would have come as a surprise had he not won. Some may say that he hadn't proved it at the top level. To my view he had proved it at a better level in the past and all that was required was a reasonable price for such an event. 13/8 was well over his true chance measured via VDWs methods.

There are other bets to be had via the balancing of class and form, but of course these types are more open to interpretation. Yesterday I made a howler of an error with Japhet, as there was a dead give away to his fatal form flaw in the very same race. At the end of the meeting I have placed 5 bets with 3 winners at 7/4,7/4 & 13/8 SPs. This represents over 60% profit on turnover at level stakes which is a nice return but moderate in comparison when compared to some prices available about good things. I also make use of a variation on VDWs staking method which comfortably absorbes the odd losers.

Snail/Investor - the size of field is a minor concern, but VDW clearly did not concern himself as shown with bets such as Broadsword in the 1981 Triumph with 29 runners. A similiar type to Like A Butterfly actually except that she held on to win. VDW said he made 3 bets at the 81 Festival with Broadsword 2nd 7/4, Clayside Won 5/2 and Little Owl Won 6/1.

Barney - Celtic Pleasure had a long break after disappointing at Newbury. When this sort of thing happens, it usually means things were not right for whatever reason on the day. A lay off is a fair signpost to this.

Romans - It's the balance between form and class that provides the answers. Just because a horse finishes 2nd it doesn't mean it showed form. Yes it was form in that it came 2nd, but how do we equate form ?

For example, See More Business was not considered a form horse today. Looks Like Trouble was given the benefit of the doubt, though a thorough inspection showed the doubts were too much to select him as a winner. Florida Pearl was also given the BOTD, but full analysis showed major doubts with him at Cheltenham in this class.

Royal Auclair looked good, but was left to run.

Guest-I find its OK to take liberies with lower class races (Listed, Bs, Cs etc) but with the very top class events I need everything to be perfect due to the more competitive nature. If we look at the Gold Cup the first 3 consistency ratings covered 9 horses and a rating like Postmark also had 9 horses within 5 points of the top rating. When the initial numerical picture shows something like this its rarely worthwhile looking at the form as its unlikely the picture will be clear enough to make an informed choice. More chance of making a mistake and picking Behrajan or Bacchanal than Best Mate so leave the race alone. Contrast this with the ratings for the stayers hurdle and we immediately get a clearer picture of the likely contenders with one of them ahead on all aspects and a look at the form confirmed this. In a case like this 13/8 was a very good price.
Likewise with other VDW methods they are easier to apply just below the very highest class races as there will be a slightly greater disparity among the class/ability of the contenders that is often not reflected by the betting.
Regards,

I Wish !

Morning all,

A very quick message before going to work.

Romans

You feel I am making rapid progress. That`s nice of you to say but I would question `rapid`.
Yes, I know a bit more now than I did 2-3 months ago but I would say I`m making slow and steady headway.
A % of my old form books have just arrived with the remainder expected next week. That will help but having said that I feel there is enough on this thread to help all of us who want to learn and with the continued help of the very genuine Guest, Statajack, Swish, Fulham, Lee, Mtoto, Barney, etc we can only improve our knowledge.
What they cannot help us with is hard work.


Guest

Well done on a successful Cheltenham.

Golden Goal – I can see why he was not a bet today but to quote yourself Royal Auclair looked good but was allowed to run. To me RA had done all he could by winning his 2 races and it should have been 3 but for falling when well clear. Would I be right in saying the opposition he beat weren`t the best horses in the world Yes, he had the age allowance and I feel it safe to say he was on the up much the same as GG but he was up against tough opposition today and been asked to do something it hadn`t done before so I would have `let him run today` .

Polar Red – would have been a bet for me today at a price of around 5/2. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it looks as though his excertions at the weekend took its toll when the formbook shows he was `all out` to win. I think I may have the answer my own thoughts.

Regards,