Good Morning Comrades

Once more into the fray,

Actually I`ve decided to make a temporary tactical withdrawl from this thread, including my answer to Barney. Much of that reason is down to Q`s last sentence on his last post to this thread.

That together with the stench of being in such close proximity to one or two of the Occult, it`s more than a mere earthling can stand in a short period.

However, I won`t be to far away and if I`m poked in the eye with a sharp stick I suppose I could be persuaded to revisit sooner than I had planned.

So on that note I`ll bid you Good day.


PS. The telly was crap last night anyway.

Yours (for the time being)

111
.

Morning all,

Firstly can I stress that I do not want it spelt out before the race and secondly be left in no doubt that I will not be investing today as I`m still struggling to balance all the factors.

Today for me brings a situation some of us come across regularly, ie - on my reading of form which I accept is still novicy GUNTHER MCBRIDE, my head says would be a bet today yet my stomach keeps telling me `no`.

I guess the answer is `temprement`. If in doubt stay out.

My analysis - GM for me is the class/form horse.
A 17 lbs rise in OR would normally suggest the hcapper had been too harsh ( didn`t stop Polar Red ). Added to that he is set to carry 8 lbs more actual weight and this is definately a step up in race class. I accept todays race value is less the Racing Post chase but the opposition today is tougher.

Having said all that both Postmark and Topspeed lend support. Also, his topspeed figure last time proves we have a rapidly improving horse.

The 2 horses with speed in this class namely Ad Hoc and Banker Count have to concede 10 lbs and 13 lbs to GM.

Comments in the post this morning suggest going left handed plus uphill finish may see further improvement.

*** a M Pipe unexposed contender namely Carryon harry adds further to the puzzle.

MY CONCLUSION - I consider GM at the availible 13/2 a selection today.

Regards,

hi gigondas(chris)

do i know you???

this is the class form horse with everthing in his favour,pass us mi boots.i think it was the driver that cocked it up last time and back to normal here,however,this horse has proved in recent years that its been good enough and hes not taken the trouble to attend here before,why??so much in this race depends on the going as very fast horses on slightly different surfaces,if its more good than good to soft then we shall see a blanket finish with fondmort seebald and armaturk, moscow flyer if he acts on the going(wish i knew what yeilding was). if it comes up softer then its a 2 horse race with armaturk setting the pace and moscow flyer coming off it to win,my heart says armaturk will string em out and win the facts say moscow flyer.a winner in a race.

good luck today everybody

ps. my form books have just come, beautiful cream leather yum yum !!!

Further to my thoughts on todays Cheltenham meeting here are some further observations.

In the opener the three most consistent ratings include Bernardon,In Cpntrast,Native Scout,Sacundai and Like A Butterfly. Other consistent horses who don't appear in the forecast are Dungarvans Choice and Dubai Seven Stars. Top on ability rating is Adamant Approach who won a valuable hcap at Leopardstown before finishing 3rd to second on ability Like A Butterfly when recieving 4lb on the same course but 2f further. Next on ability is Never (114) then Snob Wells (113) and close up Sacundai (111). Never is not a form horse and neither is Snob Wells. Sacundai is a form horse though and did win a class 209 gd2 hurdle at leopardstown in between finishing 2nd to Like A Butterfly (132) twice, once at levels and latterly getting a pound. He is now 7lb worse off for the last run. The mare hasn't put a hoof wrong yet, as expected and there is no evidence to say the course or going will not suit. Other consistent horses don't have the form so far to trouble the mare.

In the Arkle Chase there are a lot of consistent horses. The class/form horse is Moscow Flyer with Barton 2nd on class/form. Moscow Flyer has won 3 from 5 over fences but falling on 2 other occassions. His best run was at Leopardstown on Boxing Day (a good thing to boot) but fell a month later early on against lesser horses. He has yet to win outside of Ireland after 4 seasons. Barton has won at a previous festival and was a seriously good hurdler. He has 4 out of 5 over fences winning very easily but not against much opposition. The form analysis shows a conflict for most of the probables including Fondmort,Youlneverwalkalone and Seebald. This is a race to watch.

I've already talked about The Champion Hurdle. The other televised race at 3.55 has Gunther Mcbride as the class/form horse. However he won a very poor renewal of the Racing Post chase last time and now takes on better horseswith more weight on a stiffer course. Super consistent Carryonharry has been winning uncompetetive races, but has clearly been put by for a good prize. Again though the race shows conflicting pictures.

Thanks Guest for your contribution.I agree that the mare is a good thing in the first.A word of warning to all,has anyone noticed the appalling record of Be My Native horses at the Cheltenham festival?It is not a coincidence.
I see the big race as a match between Istabraq and L.L.
Too much conflict elsewhere.

Guest

although not a vdw follower as such - thanks for your cheltenham thoughts.

Iam laying Istrabraq - landing light I quite like but have just had a small nibble on Bilboa and geos 18 and 19's plus hors at 13's as a bit of interest. Of course this isnt via the VDW philosophy.

Afternoon all,

My comments may bring back the `wind up` merchants but I`m proud of this thread even though my comments are not up to the calibre of many.

Would I be right to say that todays first 2 winners have received very positive comments from those who`s opinion we should always take note of.

Enough said, I`m now going to watch this thread hit the hat trick - watch Landing Light go.

I`ll left myself wide open haven`t I ?

Regards,

what about landing light??
the horse still had plenty of gas in the tank,it was finishing like a train at the end but had been given far to much to do by fitzgerald 3 or 4 out and only came into the race 2 out, now where have i heard that before???

it could have been a lot nearer with a more positive ride i dont know how he puts up with him.

i have been readind this thread for a few days and after reading some of the messages i cant see what all the fuss is about some of the vdw formites the way i see it vdw never told anyone how his system worked he only gave hints so i think who ever follows the mans hints will never know if there interpitain is right or near right the way my interpitation is as follows but is it the right way or not it dont matter what matters is it has filters and the best filters i have seen on the gummy forum must be MAX FILTERS having said that this is my interpitation
1 chases only non hcp or hcp must be in the 1st 4 in r/p f/c
2 take the 1st four and look at there last 3 form fig ignore f/b/r/ect ect
3 is ability you get this by all the wins the horse has won diveded by the winning runs
4 class is the horses run in its last run
5 is it weigted to win (ie) carrying less weight to-day than in its last race
6 is the horses last speed figure he's best speed figure this would mean the horse is fit
5 and 6 is the the one where the vfb people limit their bets example
5 if its got more weight they wont bet on it
6 the last speed figure must be the horses best speed figure the horse has ever got if the rule 5/6 passes the test then and only then do they study the form of the selected horse and also study the form on the other runners
they also might and more often than not then use the roushayd system that is all there is to the vdw system so whats all the fuss there only filters to see if the horse is up for it
you will see on a thread that i started on this system and you will see the horses i picked for today that was put up last night me i think the system is good because it leaves you with a couple of horses to study the form but i think MAXS FILTERS ARE BETTER perhaps if in vdw day if he could have access to to-days filters who knows if he would not have used them persionally i think he would have
these views are mine and they are for discussion

I had an email today from Browzers, asking if I still wanted a copy of this very relevant book. As it happens, I picked up a copy elsewhere some weeks ago, but if anyone is looking, there is one to be had. Browzers' telephone number is 0161 773 2327.

Hi Barney,

I don't think I know you, but who can tell? Moscow flyer brought home the bacon today. If it hadn't been for the fall last time out I would have really backed it heavy, but I'm still very pleased it won - betting bank up by 20%. Hope you got on it too!

Chris

cheltenham 2.35 13 march
ability class weight

eldron blue 285 464 +7
flagship uberalles 232 464 +7
native upmanship 181 199 +2
tiuchev 190 162 level

tiuchev is weighted to win speed figures
last race last 12 months going dist course
180 180 180 180 170
is in peak form got all the highest speed fig
flagship has had he's usuall training problems
others with high class ratings
latalomme 464 btn by flagship
turgeoney 325
wahiba sands 348 btn by tugeoney
fadalko 209 btn by flagship
with the class horse elredon bleu not run for 95 days is there a problem
also goes for flagship not run for 95 days this is what vdw says you got the class horse now sort the form out

barney
well done on your winer in a race giving it beforehand.

determined
yes fair play to barney he gave a vdw bet(winner)before a race and i have gave him praise for it,but you said two where is the other one??

Greg,

My 2 were Landing Light and Gunther Mcbride.

What you must bare in mind of course is that my `VDW` selections are from a novice.

Thats not an excuse it`s a fact, ie - as you can see from Guest`s observations today GM was not a bet as there was too much conflict.

In short the effectiveness of the VDW methodology should NOT be based on my selections as quite clearly I`m along way from understanding the method`s.

LANDING LIGHT

That said, whilst I accept GM was not a VDW bet today I`ll be very interested to know if all those well versed in the methodology, ie - Statajack, Lee, Mtoto, Bensam, Fulham, etc invested on Landing Light today.

Barney,

Landing Light always has a `flat spot` in his race but prior to today he`s always got away with it.

His turn of foot wasn`t there today. Perhaps thats as good as he is ?

Regards,

hi greg,

the other winner was like a butterfly, given by guest and a detailed description of the method(further up this page).

determined thanks for that i hadn't noticed it

florence speed figures 'bahh humbug'

Determined,

Today was one of those days where all didn’t quite go according to plan. Like A Butterfly was fortunate and I’m sure the punter who backed her at £225000 - £100000 (it wasn’t you was it Guest?!) was relieved to see Adamant Approach go over at the last, mind you I note that someone lost out on £14000 - £1000 each way.

Landing Light most certainly had the right profile to warrant my support today but unfortunately they can’t all win.

Hi Lee
Thanks for the welcome.
I look forward to your reply. I can well appreciate that you are flat out at the momment.
For myself I sit back and enjoy the festival , watching all those top class horses/jockeys/trainers battle it out for the honours, that's what makes it such a special occasion.As far as the punting goes I leave well alone, far to many top class factors for me to draw any sort of educated conclusions.

Going back to the two horses I mentioned, Gaye Chance and Catch Phrase, do you think that there are any firm conclusions that can be drawn.
Take Gaye Chance ( this is a big sticking point for me )with a duck egg lto why in "VDW Spells It All Out" was G/Chance's consistency figure shown as 12?3,It could be that G/C ran in a much higher class race lto probably with much credit, but where do you draw the line. Can anyone when looking at the consistency figures make this educated guess, if so then that in effect would render the consistency figures useless.

Whoops, I've just spent the last half hour looking at what I've just wrote and can see that I'm confusing the issue with two totaly different issues. I.E cons/figures up against class/form, still I'll leave it in as I think the last part of what I wrote holds true.

Moving on to Catch Phrase, I can see that this may be a different situation to G.C . Catch Phrase was refered to by VDW as being 2nd on class/form, so this would imply that you can have multiple class/form horses in any given race, being that I've got the formbook for this race I'd say that Catch Phrase's record of his last five races would leave a lot to be desired, the form figures alone are F00-PF .

In all honesty the only answer I'm seeking would be, to isolate a class/form horse would this be a mechanical process or would it be down to ones own understanding of what that indidual would constitute as form.
If the answer was the latter then surely there wouldn't be a methology as it would all boil down to ones own interpretation.
All the best
Win,Brighton

13 march cheltenham 3.55

ability class weight
frosty canyon 45 71 - 8
japhet 145 75 - 5
maximize 123 290 - 3
jimmy tennis 123 208 - 5
colonal braxton 164 152 + 4

the class horse is MAXIMIZE but there is a conflict in the ratings, 4 of them are weighted to win they have done the dist colonal braxton not proven over the distance i would leave the race alone
i must stress these are my opinions and they are open for discussion regards florence

Determined.

I'm sorry to say once again I was out of step with the conventional vdw thinking.
I made Hors La Loi 111 the class/form horse and made Bilboa the main danger. Shame a great race was spoilt by the accident, and I fear Hors will never get the credit he deserves. Oh, yes I did back him. I thought 12/1 was a steal when they where only giving 7/4 Like A Butterfly with 28 runners. Some people have more money than sense, but that's another story.

I also think you hit the nail on the head with your thoughts on Gunther McBride. The penalty value may have been down but the class was certainly up. As I have said before the competitors make the class, not the prize.

Hope we all have a good day tomorrow.