Hopefully I haven't offended you Determined I did not mean to imply you have not put in the hard work.By rapid progress I mean relative to me who has struggled with this for years.

Thank you to Guest for the reply and I understand you have gone as far as you can with nudges. I'm giving it a rest this morning and having a stroll along the beach to clear the cobwebs.

Statajack/All - I agree with your comments regarding races just below top class. In the Gold Cup, the class horses had doubts about recent form. Looks Like Trouble won last time, but hadn't beaten anything of note for a very long time. Coupled with the poor record of Gold Cup winners after such a gruelling race, he had major doubts. Same for See More Business who had to be dropped a long way to win last time. Florida Pearl was a bit trickier as he put in a bad one last time, but had good form prior to that. Ground conditions were a valid excuse, but of course he was now taking on the Kempton 2nd on a stiffer track over further in higher class. Bacchanal didn't have the form to win, nor did Marlborough and there were doubts with others. There was a case for making a book, but too many questions for me. Virtually all my analysis was based on class and form, with form/hcap ratings just a very rough guide. As VDW said, the balance between class and form often confounds those who rely on hcap/form ratings. This is not directed at yourself though Statajack, as I'm sure you consider everything else VDW showed us.

The Stayers hurdle showed much less confusion just using class and form. In fact I didn't pay much attention to postmark or topseed figures. There were only 2 possibles and they finished 1,2. Baracouda clearly had the better form given his past opposition. VDW once said about Liitle Owl/Wayward Lad that "at that time and in that race, Wayward Lad had no chance whatsoever of beating Little Owl". A bold statement sure enough, but not as unfounded as other may think.

Well done Statajack on your 100% festival record by the way. Job done as they say.

mr bossman a winner in a race!

have a real good look mate.

on what grounds

followed home by danzig island then virtuous cicle

how do you see it?

Guest,
Im no great fan of postmark either, even less topspeed but I find if something looks good on the ratings I use, when I check the form myself I more often than not find the figures confirmed. However, I can look at the form and if its not confirmed by the figures I will tend to treat it with caution, quite often rightly so. Im not bothered by a few pounds/points here or there but I consider the numerical process very important. If we look at the instructions in the "Spells it out" letter the process funnels us towards the likely winners in a race by figures alone. Its a simple process but the thinking behind it is incredibly complex. As you say though, ratings are meaningless without looking at the form.
regards,

all i can really say is look at each horse,not just the numerical picture.i,m not saying there,s anything to be had,but it,s a very interesting race.but then again who am i to say.cheers"I"

hope at least some of you got on,good forcast to i got 4/1

70% of these win on the bit,

the price was a bit shabby but for anyone who has considered this method the other one today was a much better price

well done with mr.b, if you backed him i personally let him run,but there was a good thing today,in my opinion.cheers mate " I "

come on investor name names

i backed them both

ELHEBA well done chap " i "

if horses are named too often,the big guns will clear off. i don,t want that to happen maybe by e.mail but not splattered all over the thread, regardless of what the other side think.cheers mate " i "

oky doky

No offence taken. Absolutely not.

I am quite a sensitive guy on occasions but your comments if anything were complimentary.

Regards,

Statajack - For a long time I, like many others, was mystified somewhat by the "Spell It All Out" article. On the face of it the process looked simple through the numerical picture, but the basics didn't work out in practice. There had to be more to the process than was "spelt out" and VDW confirmed as much some time after. After much research and constant re-reading of his articles certain things began to become clear, and after some further encouragement from someone more well versed in the methods, I spotted a glaring factor that had been suggested by VDW but not spelt out clearly in black & white. A lot of the clues were in the Prominent King article along with the "Spells It All Out" article. There was also a very clear pointer in the Pegwell Bay evaluation.

The point of my mentioning this is that the bets VDW gave in Little Owl and Sunset Cristo were far more clear cut than those such as Ekbalco and Justafancy in the same article or Celtic Pleasure,Battlement,Strombolus,Prom King,etc. VDW only set out evaluations for certain horses for a reason, leaving the Ekbalcos and Strombolus selections for others to investigate.

As you rightly say, the process is relatively simple but the reasons behind the factors are quite complex. Something others may like to bear in mind when evaluating races is the factor of relativity. Just take a look at Kings Ride winning the Lincoln, where VDW said he was a good thing.

Obviously you have got things sorted, Statajack and for that you have my full respect. I know only too well how tough a ride it can be to get there. I'd be interested to hear more of your views via email if agreeable.

good evening..i do not wish to appear pushy or rude after all i feel youv,e done more of your fair share,to help people but did you not feel my e.mail was at least worthy of at least a small response regards " i "

Hi, what do you mean in your earlier post about big guns clearing off and whats wrong with naming horses....you cant surely be worried about the prices plunging can you.
Regards......

BRICK

Investor i must agree with brick its one thing not to name a horse before a race ( although there are generous people on the board who are sensible to relise that the price will not be affected)

One Question I would like you to answer investor did VDW give 20 year old examples?

regards titus

It's obvious. If he names them before the race everyone will see what a pr*** he is. This is the same guy who used to name horses before racing then when they got beat he posts after racing that he also bet 8/1 shots that won, funny how he never posted them before the race. And if all that study only throws up Fineform Maximums it looks like a waste of time to me. And this is the guy who tells Swish to sod off, what a prat.

Guest,

I see your latest article gives those who are trying to understand VDW ( of which I am of course one )further nudges.

I`ve never been very good at solving `cryptic clues` and now you start using the word complex.

I`m a reasonbly intelligent chap but now things are even more `complex` than I thought you`ve got me worried.

I`m `DETERMINED` so i`ll stick at it.

Regards,