Dear Mtoto,
Great to see you back on the board and I think it is partly to do with:
a)your superb results you posted in November
b)me re-posting them on this thread
c)stimulating new interest to people who were not on the board then
d)you taking an interest in what these people have to say, (good or bad),
Take Care
Swish

Dear Guest,
I bet for both reasons you ask.
Regarding WAHIBA SANDS, I do not mind you taking the mickey that I picked a loser because, firstly, EVERYONE does and secondly I take the mick too, so I only deserve the same back.
At least I have the guts to offer an opinion though, will you or REFERENCE POINT be joining in the NAPS competition?
I know you won't, because you would be far too embarrased to show you had picked a loser. Its a lot easier to just pick nothing and say words to the affect "one day you will all find out, but I know and that is how it is staying"

Fulham
So how can anyone weigh up the form of a race
if we don`t know the pace of the race or how
well a horse did at the end of its race.And
in the case of europeon form how can anyone
judge how good the horses are compared to those
in our country.Is there any publications that
cover this ie Timeform or Superform.How can anyone
say that Got One Too was a good bet if we can`t
weigh up the form of lisaan which had the highest
ability rating.

Maggsy

Just finished reading the entire V.D.W books, no Guest, I don't no it all now, the point I was trying to make was that the books explain things alot better than some people on this board, I am not going to confuse myself any more with other people's guess work of what could have, should have or would have, your comment on read what has been written is a good bit of advice that I intend to follow, but not on this board, I want to pick and eat the fruit, not study the roots of the tree where the fruit came from, I have said before about the winners that i have found useing the basic principles found in the ultimate wheel of fortune, now the rest of the books have made me go back to some of my own workings, and have found area's for improvement, it's time to move on, But I am thankfull to those who posted the browzers web site.

Mtoto – I think you and I should just agree to differ because I’m not sure if you actually take in the comments I make. I never said you claimed to achieve 80%+ plus winners , only that VDW clearly stated that if we, as users of his method, failed to reach that figure then we were getting our reading of form wrong. You are clearly taking the numerical pictures at face value with your example of the Leger and ORs vs Ability ratings. Likewise with your interpretation of the Roushayd method which incidentally was one of VDWs most revealing articles if you looked beyond the obvious. If you are referring to speed figures, well yes I do use them in the way that VDW indicated as an extra guide or measure. Class and Form are the principles in finding winners and it is getting the balance between them consistently correct that helps show us the wagers to make. MOM makes a valid point that VDW did appear to try and simplify certain aspects of his method when producing the “Spells It All Out” article only because very few seemed able to balance the factors.

Hedgehog – All I would say is that the markets do provide an area worthy of investigation, as indeed do all the other factors, and bear in mind something else VDW told us about “so called good things getting beaten..” Congrats on finding the winners you mentioned by the way.

Maggsy- Anyone continually putting decent money on AND continually collecting will simply be knocked back. Even relatively small amounts can be knocked back when trying to split bets between bookies on course. These guys are not stupid and they soon recognise any shrewd punters and take note. Seeing as the VDW methods provide an endless supply of winners, it is wise to not get greedy and bet in reasonable amounts. It may seem exciting to think of having a bet in the sort of proportions that can be seen at the big festivals, but it is also worth bearing in mind how many of these bets actually fail. Take a look at the reported bets after any day of the big festivals.

Tommyboy – Your decision is the best one to make ie read & understand everything VDW was saying and forget about wrong interpretations. This has been my main point throughout my postings.

Swish – I was not taking the mickey out of your bet, merely observing that the horse you choose may have appeared on the surface to be a VDW type bet. Perhaps you were not attempting to use the VDW methods to evaluate the race, but had you done so in the same way I used them you would have seen the most likely winner was the actual winner. We all back losers now & then because there is no 100% bombproof method. There are ways though to achieve 80%+ winners as shown by VDW.

To those who continually seem to post only to goad or slate others I have nothing to say really. But then you already know that , don’t you?

Dear Guest,
Yes O.K. then you knew the winner I did not.
I look forward to the day when I can also pick most of the winners and never tip one and just watch people on message boards guessing winners when all the time I KNOW the answer.(I do not mean that for one iota).
You must get tremendous enjoyment, knowing you know the answer because you are so clever.
You have never felt joy in giving to others then???????????????
I do not care if you are a multi-millionaire or what, you are selfish and egotistical same as Reference Point (you are both same person anyway)
it's a good thing message boards came along so you can brag about what you know without anybody being able to catch you out, face to face.
The net has given you a way of pretending you are someone when really you are no one.
You have never given a single winner, and even if you could you are going to keep it secret because of your own greed. Let's face it the bookies won't know your secret name is Guest/reference Point.
You are on the wrong board really.
You need to find a board where everybody loves your knowledge even though you have never given one winner ever.
Trouble is there isn't one.
We are all in a surreal situation, which you thrive on. If you walked into a real pub and carried on the way you do................well!
Yours
Swish

Guest,

Do I take it that you are not prepared to comment on my question re the class/form horse in 1.30 at Warwick on Saturday. Or perhaps you missed the question?

One further point you may be able to clarify for us Guest, whilst accepting that not all class/form horses should be backed, does every race contain a class/form horse or just certain races ?

Cheers

It has taken a little longer than normal for the predictable pattern of frustration to be shown by some when the methods of VDW are openly discussed. But, nevertheless, it has happened. For what it is worth I have never Posted as 'Guest' and likewise he, whoever he is, he has never posted as me.

All this leaves me to say is good luck to those who are genuinely serious, and with some hard graft you will achieve your aim.

I dont think there is any frustration nor ill feeling between those engaged in "open discussion" of the methods of VDW or any of the other methods brought up on this board. However vapid, obscure or self-congratulatory posts cannot be considered part of open discussion. It's quite natural that various members would become tired of the style and content of messages posted under the names Reference Point and Guest.

I can not see the point in all this back bitting. We all have our own views on VDW and racing in general and as such it makes sense to have a certain measure of respect for those views. There are a lot of clued in people on this board and it would be a shame to see it turn into something like ractips 365 or other such rubbish that is out there. VDW, much like racing as a whole is open to interpretation and there will always be a personal element contained when making your selections. There is no true "way" to find winners. Looking back at the old VDW examples there are patterns to be found BUT the trick comes when selecting and using the various elements as and when they crop up. There is no 1,2,3 guide to VDW but follow the spells it out approach and you will not go far wrong. Of course those so inclined would gain a great deal from going back to the beginning and if possible with the aid of some old form books look into the examples in greater detail. The basics DO WORK. Like I said the spells it out approach is very good for narrowing the field and is as good a starting point as any for those wishing to begin the journey, but like everything in life you get back what you put into it.

M.O.M

Hello All,

It's getting a bit heated isn't it!

John in France - Yes I used exactly the same method as for Got One Too.

Barney - I'm not sure how the tables in the article could be copied in this forum. If anyone can post how I can get a table to work, I'll post the article with pleasure.

Can you send Gummy your email address as he no longer has it.

Swish - I thought Wahiba Snads was the one to be on. And if my memory serves (and it often doesn't) Turgeonev was not even in the top 4 on Ability.

Guest - thanks for the response. I'm beginning to get an inkling of the use for previous race odds. I'll keep looking into the matter.

Can I ask, when you got Turgeonev, did you strike out higher ability horses and then add the next highest in?

All the best
hedgehog

Had a look for books written by VDW,but it seems there are quite a variety avaliable,most of which have not been penned by the man himself.
Has anyone got a complete list of the books that he actually wrote.Please dont include those adapted or copied by other Authors.
I have very little knowledge of his ideas,but it seems to me the best way to start would be to read his OWN words.
Thanks in advance Guys

Gary

Swish, Leave the guys here alone,i appreciate that you like to share ideas and that you put a lot of effort in yourself and have never been afraid to put up your selections,But if the likes of Reference Point and Guest are not attacking other peoples ideas its fine.
They dont have to put there own selections on the board.
Give em a break.

How's yer dutching going by the way?

Barney,are you still dutching your selections or have you 'Turned to the dark side'?

Seems to me that a lot of people tie themselves in ever tighter knots over VDW.
I have used race values and VDW's principles as a guide to selection for a while, but they must be treated as such. They are a guide, open to interpretation.
I tend to favour horses with placed or winning form in higher value races than their current race.

Gary,

VDW only actually wrote one 'book' this was a short work for Raceform entitled 'Systematic Betting'. The bulk of what he wrote was in the form of letters to the sports forum of the then Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book, now Raceform Update.

The majority of these letters can be found in a 'compilation' edited by Tony Peach titled 'The Golden Years of Van Der Wheil'. Other significant contributions can be found in 'The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune' also edited by Tony Peach. Both these would be available from Browsers.

Hope this helps.

Hello All,

I was just looking on the 0dd5 site and found a couple of good articles one on SP the other on lengths beaten.

The SP article had a table showing likelihood of winning against position in betting forecast. Reading the table, the values seem to be 1st 31%, 2nd 20%, 3rd 14%, 4th 10%, 5th 7% and 6th 5%. Old news but it made me wonder if anybody has done the same for other finishing positions. If so this may back up Fulham's hint that trainers sometimes use position in the betting market as an indication of final position.

Just a thought.

All the best
hedgehog

Contrary to my last comment I do have one final thing to say to Swish. Your heated reply continually contradicts itself suggesting I am some sort of selfish con artist in one breath and then selfish because I won’t tell you which horses I back or the exact details of how I find them. Make your mind up pal. And once again you have failed to read exactly what I said in that Turgeonev was the most likely winner in the race. Did I say that I put money on it ?

Yes, the message boards on the net are open to abuse and it is not hard to spot who is behind certain aliases. Obviously for some though, paranoia has clouded their judgement and I can only state that I have posted under one alias only within this thread. In case you hadn’t noticed Swish,Epiglotis – I chose to be known as a guest. And as mentioned before, the only reason I have posted is to pass on a few clues out of generosity to those who are really interested in VDWs methods. I have been asked why I bother and I must confess I am beginning to ponder the same question myself.

MOM – I agree with a lot of what you say, but even though the examples given in “Spells It All Out” as bets were clear cut so many still failed to grasp all the considerations required. Don’t get me wrong , it took me years to see the illusive factors, but I always believed they were there and when you find them, if you haven’t already, things will become much clearer.

Crock – It can be tricky to isolate the class/form horse in a race,but others do stand out. A good wager does not have to be top rated on ability. It is the balance between class and form that counts. The 1.30 at Warwick looked at face value a tricky situation, but a thorough investigation of the form did isolate the probable winner. For reasons already stated I won’t go into the various factors considered, but they are logical facts and not hidden.

Hedgehog – Keep following your research into various areas. Re Turgeonev – It might seem an obvious thing to say, but the race was a handicap. Depending on the class , weight can and does stop horses.

Gary – The best books to get are “The Golden Years” , “The Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune” , “Betting The VDW Way” and “Racing In My Systems” (which has useful VDW chapters). There is more than enough within those books to gain an understanding. If possible it is well worth getting a copy of “Systematic Betting” penned by VDW which gives excellent methods not systems as the daft title attributed by Raceform implies.

Ascot 2..20 Sat

Lisaan

I have read the comments about the lack of detail in the form for this horse. The horse ran in handicaps in its last 2 races.I would have thought that, that information would have given you enough to work out the class of the race, and horse. Lack of speed figure, if you gave it the same figure as the fastest horse in this race, it still wasn't good enough to win. The over all ability rating (vdw) does not take into account the better prize money in Ireland (or France) This is one of the flaws in the vdw ability rating. How was he to know the other counrty's would get their racing sorted out, and have prize money that reflected the true worth of winning races.

I have said before that the ability of a horse MUST be taken into account. I just think the ability rating given by vdw was a last ditch effort to stop people using just the numerical platform he had given before 1981. It was better than nothing, and easy to understand (at the time)

On another subject, Guest didn't say Turgeonev was the bet, he said it was the most likely winner. Wonder if that is because there where to many dangers in the race? Over to you Guest!

Regards

Note to guest

Sorry to be a pedant but the following is a dictionary definition.

SYSTEM, n. method; order; set of connected parts forming a complex whole; classification.

So system and method describe the same thing.

Definition pretty well sums up VDW's approach.

Rob

I applied the same principles as Hedgehog did the other day (2.20 Ascot) to the 3.50 at Doncaster today and came up with Out of the Shadows. It won (just) at 7/1. I do not know why I particularly chose this race, although I think it was because it looked very competitive. Could someone please give me an idea as to which races to concentrate on, as I am sure that we don't wade through the whole card. Many thanks. JIF

Hello All,

JIF - I usually follow VDW and do the highest and 2nd highest penalty value races at the principle meeting and the highest at other meetings. This is why I didn't evaluate the Got One Too race prior to it's running.

All - I've just been copying Guest's posts so I can read them to pick up on his hints. While doing that I had a thought.

What one question would I ask VDW if I could?

Answer - How to read a card properly.

All the best
hedgehog