Could not a vdw follower not put their ideas and selection for the champion hurdle beforehand or say why there isnt one .
As I have said before it would be nice if VDW losers were discussed to give a slightly more balanced view

i,ve never read a vdw article, or book in my life,all i,ve done is backcheck horses that have been put up on this thread,there,s no doubt that the methods, and factors are there to be seen by all, like others have said it is logical.i could have stumbled across something completely different, but i don,t think so because in 90% of races i,ve looked at the factors are there.regards investor

Investor

That is precisely my point. If you backcheck horses named in this forum, you will often/usually/always find reasons for regarding them as good bets. But do the analysis BEFORE the race, and I'll warrant you'll see reasons not to back those very same horses. Once one knows the result there is, I believe, a strong tendency to think it was easier to predict than it was.

If, on the basis of nothing more than studying the currrent horses mentioned on this forum, you've developed sufficient of an understanding to be able to predict their counter-parts prospectively, with enough confidence to back them to worthwhile stakes, then more power to your elbow.

Investor

Reading these posts, it`s far from apparent that anyone has ever picked a winner before the race has been run.

But one thing sticks out a mile. You picked a loser with your outburst aimed at Swish. The ammount of people who have read your 70 posts is nothing compared to those that read Swish`s. What`s more, many board members have written to express their appreciation of his contributions,I haven`t seen to many writing about yours.

We all get it wrong now and then, I`m a fairly well practised exponant of that, but what`s so disappointing in your case is that you haven`t seen fit or had the good grace to print a retraction or apology.

To survive on boards such as this you need to command some sort of respect, you`ve kicked yourself in the goolies my friend. Do the right thing Investor, for an example look at Humour/Bidet.

Yours

111
.

Some words from a "junior member"

I currently look at all treads, at my level I am seeking knowledge.

If at a higher level - more learned types like - 111/Barney/Max/Guest/Swish and more.. want to question each other, even disagree - fine - maybe I'll learn in the process.

What is not needed is "bog" language suitable at my kids school.

I have seen some of your posts and I think you too have much to offer(much more than me at present) - surely our aim is to "stuff" the bookie - NOT abuse fellow inverstors.

spacedout

Firstly,
Thanks 3 legs,
Secondly
Thanks Fulham (and although I posted it on the other thread: the quarter final thread,)
Well done I would love to see your team win it)..
Yours
Swish

Dear Spacedout,
Thanks also,
Yours
Swish

The debate goes on. I don’t wish to sound downbeat when I refer to investor’s progression with the methods but in order that those looking in on this thread don’t get the impression that things are as simple to understand as it has been made to appear, I feel that it is necessary to mention that this scenario is far from the norm. I’m sure that Guest, Mtoto, Statajck, Fulham etc. will agree with me when I say that to be able to acquire an understanding of VDW without his letters and past form is, in my opinion, an impossible task.

Fulham, in your form and risk post you make some worthy points, particularly in recognising VDW’s apparent ability to be able to say with such authority and confidence that a particular horse is going to win. May I say that until one is able to do just this, at whatever level, and achieve the strike rate that he suggested was attainable then one is most certainly missing one or a few factors, or lacking in experience in actually using them. The first scenario is the most likely as once the factors are known then it doesn’t take to much practice to make them work.

It is really up to the reader to decide whether or not they feel there is any worth in these methods and also in the way that pointers and help is given on this thread. Post race rationalisation is really only relevant if one is falling short of the mark or is not quite what they say they are. However if, VDW, or Guest, or whoever mentions a horse that they backed, and they are achieving 80% plus winners then I feel that post race rationalisation is irrelevant and does not come in to it. But this is where the reader must decide whether or not they trust the posters integrity.

spacedout..if you class sod off as bog language,then i,m glad you don,t live where i do,to everyone else i will not apologise, to the VETERAN he,s to self righteous for my liking i will keep to this thread and hopefully theyr,ll be no more problems, if i,m sent to coventry,so be it.investor

hello there..maybe i,ve been very lucky, i don,t know but like i,ve said i,ve backchecked not fitted, the conclusions i have come to must be a massive coincidence, maybe i should stop posting and see how things progress,but it bemuses me the last 3 bets have all won,using the same criteria as i used when checking all guests posts.regards investor

would you mind if i e.mailed you, i don,t want nothing spelling out.investor

Lee

With respect, you are somewhat missing my point.

I am not seeking to impune VDW's integrity, or anyone else's. I am, however, drawing a distinction between bets actually made, and horses viewed retrospectively as good things.

Occasionally, VDW says he backed a specific horse, and I certainly have no reason to disbelieve him. But much more often there is ambiguity. Compare, for example, the two occasions he identified five winners on a Saturday - 14/4/79 (in the 24/5/79 letter) and 7/3/81 (the "Spells it all out" article). Are you SURE even of how many of the ten he regarded as strong enough to class as bets, as distinct from likely winners to be watched, let alone whether they were identified before the races concerned or as a result of post-race research, and if so what are your grounds for certainty?

I have looked with interest at some of the recent postings and there is obviously ill feeling between some of the posters.The bottom line is that we all have something in common.In short that is an interest in horereacing and most importantly to take as much money as possible from the bookie.We should not lose sight of this common goal and forget the oneupmanship.Basically,my view is that there is more than 1 way to Skin a cat and if one way is to back few horses to maximise strike rate thats fine.Equally if there are other methods with a reduced strike rate but increased profit margins that is also fine.Personally,a method that could combine both worlds would be perfect.However,I do not see that both views are incompatible and having read the basic outline of vdw I think there is much overlap.Gentlemen and ladies lets get back to the common goal of thrashing the bookie and respect for each other.

Fulham,

VDW made reference to the horse’s chances in the ‘spells it out’ article, namely Little Owl (a certainty), Sunset Christo (almost certainty), Gaye Chance (one to leave), Kenlis (a genuine forecast favourite, but also one to leave), Wild Gamble (another genuine forecast favourite but again one to leave). Ekbalco and Justafancy were also mentioned in the same letter as good things and in contrast were quite different, with the former horse having appeared to run an out of form race last time.

I have studied the above examples, and the other 5 that you refer to in 1979 and have satisfied myself, employing the factors that I know to be relevant, of the answers that I asked questions too.

To be certain if they were pre or post race examples is really of no significance to me as they have helped with the understanding of the methods.

With regards to my point about integrity of posters, this wasn’t directly aimed at yourself. It was aimed at those that seek more than a nudge in the right direction, for instance those who want pre-race selections posted. Other than confirm what the likes of Guest, others and myself already know it will serve no purpose, and this is where it is up to reader to decide for themselves if the help that is currently being given is of any worth to them or not. I’m sure that most are glad of what they can get, but there are always those that will try and milk that extra drop. So much help has been given on this thread that really does give those who want it a massive head start, however at the end of the day it is down to the individual to prove to themselves, with effort, exactly what is attainable, not others.

Lee

That really does take the buscuit. Quote "For instance those who want pre race selections posted"

I must remember to pop down to my local bookies tomorrow and ask him for my winnings even though I didn`t bet it. I`m sure he will understand that I did tip it to win!

Get real matey, every day horse`s are tipped left right and centre on this site, with a good strike rate. You`d starve to death backing horses tipped on this thread, most of the horses are dead now anyway and probably the jockeys too.

I`ll make you a deal; I`ll shut up and go away if you show me a couple of decent priced winners BEFORE THEY`VE SET OFF That must be worth it.

It makes me wonder if some of your types have ever been to a race track and actually seen a horse, because if you had, one thing you would recognise is the smell of horseshit when it wafted past your nose.

Have we got a deal ???

111
.

and you gave me grief,for having a pop at VETERAN. tut..tut and stop using bog language, or spacedout,ll be after ya!..investor

Invester,

I wouldn`t want to be unfair, I`ll be quite happy if you pool your efforts with Lee or your mates to come up with a couple of winners.

Don`t think you`ll be doing me a favour, I won`t be backing them any way, at the moment your strike rate and winning tips are ZERO and I`m not that daft.

You`re the one`s to prof, I`ll disappear, surely that must be tempting.

111
.

Oh come on, one of you Volks Wagon Drivers must be reading this.

Is it a deal or not ??

sorry mate, you stay as one of the grand old duke of yorks 10,000 men,back all his longshots,and everything else he backs, and make loads of money, you don,t need this thread chap.investor

Evening all,

Any thoughts on who are the class/form horse(s) !

With an ability rating of 438, some 149 points clear of his nearest rival the obvious answer I guess would be Istabraq ?

That said, is he in `form`.

For me the class/form horse is Landing Light who will win the Champion Hurdle tomorrow.

I`m off for a walk with my lady wife as its a lovely evening. Any comments whilst I`m out talking to the stars will as usual be very much appreciated.

I don`t want anything spelling out just some constructive dialog.

Regards,