Guest,
I agree with you on that, but what were the negatives for Kyllachy? He too, had done little wrong. The horse had beaten most of his opposition and was the only G2 winner in the race, having won at Sandown from a poorish draw. All his rivals had to improve on their form to trouble him. Where was the class in his race? As it was he lost due to finding trouble in running which is always a possibility in 5f sprints but that negative was balanced by just who of his opponents was going to beat him?
Contrast that with ROG who as you say had got the T-shirt but was forecast at 4/7 on the morning of the race. To my mind not good value as horses who go off at odds on in G1 races do not have a good record.
regards,

Looks a tough card today...what else at Royal Ascot??

Shadow Dancing caught my eye as a possible in the 2.30(Ribbledale Stakes). Well ahead on ability rating in the top few in the forecast, fair third in the Oaks(beaten 14l though) and solid form before that. However I'm not particularly comfortable with following the Oaks form into this race, so I'm letting it run.

Can't split Marino Marini and The Bonus King in the 3.05, both Listed rce winners last time.

In the Gold Cup I'll go for Persian Punch. This will probably bring howls of derision from some quarters, but no matter! He is consistent and proven in the class(many times!). The 9/1 quote this morning looks a decent price. Vinnie Roe is way too short in the betting for one who is not a proven stayer. He may win, but I'm prepared to oppose.

The two 3yo handicaps are too open for my liking.

Common World is interesting in the 4.55, but there are some lightly raced performers open to improvement.

Just to show the value of the VDW Ability rating, backing the top ability horse from the first 5 in the betting forecast(R.P.) has give 4 winners out of 11 (I didn't rate the Chesham Stakes), prices being 1/1, 5/2, 11/1 and 4/1.

For reference today's top Ability horses(from top 5 in f/c) are:

2.30 Shadow Dancing
3.05 Marino Marini
3.45 Vinnie Roe
4.20 Barathea Blazer
4.55 Common World
5.30 Mineshaft

Rob

good morning,

good analysis Rob (AGAIN)

MM and TBK numerically are impossible to split but think i can and MM will win.

commonn world is highest on ability but the class form horse is creekview and that also will win.


of the other races royal rebel always saves his best for ascot

Barney

I think you may well be on the mark with Creekview, his two runs this season read very well, 5th of 8 in class 525 and 2nd of 6 in class 331. The suggestion is that this class 290 event is within his compass. His entries suggest a well-regarded horse.

I take your point about Royal Rebel, but he has too many no-going days for my liking. Persian Punch gives it the works and will not fail for lack of effort.

Rob

Of the first 5 in the betting Vinnie Roe is ultra consistent and in Group 1 races to boot.

He`s top on ability and, is in form and has to be the class/form horse.

The distance has to be a major factor especially given that there are proven stayers in the field.

PP is 9 years old now and if retaining his ability should he have won last time ?

I have taken the view that Vinnie Roe is taking on `weak` and/or out of form opposition and if he is so far clear on ability does the distance matter ?

I may be totally wrong but I have taken the 5/2 availible this morning.

Here`s hoping,

Cheers,

355r

good thing

determined,

VR is the c/f horse and is without doubt the one to beat.He will have to get every yard though there wont be a false pace here.

the more i look the more runners i fancy i am now stuck between akbar and hatha anna.

also add to that list wareed

couple of lengths of nayef last year,eased down, has shown significant improvement when upped in trip.

his defeat by VR was purely down to the going.

akbar to beat wareed and royal rebel


i'll put my track suit bottoms on then it is easier to get them off when i have to show my arse

Barney/Determined

Different opinions and interpretation of the available form are what this game is all about. Hopefully one of us will be on the mark in the Gold Cup!

Rob

hi rob,

ive named enough to be there abouts. LOL.


akbar is non runner so wareed

Its anybodys guess as to whether c/f horse Vinnie Roe can last over 3/4 mile further than he's won over before. If he cant its difficult to seperate any of the other contenders as they all have negatives, so I think the Gold Cup is one to watch. I dont know what sort of price Mario Marini will be in the Norfolk stakes but he seems to have a lot going for him. I cant really see any negatives unless something can improve drastically (which happened yesterday with Tomahawk) but the horses today are a bit more exposed than in the Chesham.
regards,

c'mon sunray

Trends - its just been pointed out on the BBC that no 4yo has won the Gold Cup.
Trends are very important and a factor I always consider but I can genuinely say that I completely missed it.

1st time for everything.

also trainer not bullish about the trip

jocky was trying to say he wouldnt get the trip and wouldnt like the ground but willie butted in and said he will.

Barney,
A good thing?M looks the one to me,danger CT

Barney,
If that is so,then CT looks the one to me,you could be right about M,We'll soon know

systematic

what i have done wrong this time?

i will try to start the ball rolling today.

230 ascot

3 highest ability

divine task
xtra
ulundi

class/form horses

vintage premium
extra
ulundi

form horses

vintage premium
chianti
holy orders
johanian
arabie

down in class

divine task
holy orders
i cried for you
ulundi

same class= vintage premium


im sure we all agree its a rather confusing picture
and therfore no bet,however i will try

divine task - 5 1/2 lengths off novere seems thats the limit of his ability- no easy task under allocated weight weight

ulundi - first time out this year, marked improvement in form at back end to beat hatha anna and then thundering surf who have both franked the form this week.

vintage premium - ran well in 'c' then asked too much in listed,dropped back to 'b' where shown improvement at this distance,

xtra - the distance is all wrong he might struggle at this pace.

conc the class horse has too much on his plate,if ulundi is buzzing he will be hard to beat but taking fitness into account vintage premium may be the one

305a

this looks a tad easier

c/f horse is bustan 2nd is bollin eric 3rd dihagilev

busten hasn,t beaten much

bollin is bang in form and capable of this

dihagilev has the same profile as yesterdays donkey so i'm right off that,even if its ready its not good enough.

bollin eric against not much oposition