determined,

Not at all, you are to be congratualated as far as im concerned , you have kept this thread going almost single-handedly, along with barney & a few others most recently, only wish i could contribute more from day to day, the main problem is getting to grips with all the methods woods & trees come to mind.
mac.

Lady Links newbury win was against fellow 3 year olds. What happened next time competing against older horses? Does LL get support from other ratings?
The main point I'm trying to get over here though is to take the time and do things exactly as advised in Golden Years and "Spells it Out" in particular. Dont cut corners. Always go about things in the same way and follow the steps laid out and if its worth considering the race further it will become apparent. Every part of the process is there for a reason and they all fit together.
regards,

i,m still watching,i very much admire your tenacity keep it up mate.

345a

racing certainty???

rock of gibraltar-class/form with ratings support.

obriens favs can be overturned so that brings in landseer,another open to improvement is the french horse bowman whos form looks relatively good,dupont has also improved whilst on holiday.


i will have ROG to win and dupont EW

305 a


another cert kyllachy, against not much oposition

I`m still busy rating all the races for `ability`.

Early thoughts are that ROG looks good however I wouldn`t expect the likes of Guest, Statajack, etc to invest at the likely odds.

Kyllachy isn`t top on ability (although not essential) but who can argue with his winning run last time.

More later,

As Barney suggests Kyllachy has alot going for it today.
Very consistent. Well placed on ability. Highest class win this season. Strong support in both RHR and Split Second ratings.
Course, going (not soft) and jockey = OK.

What of the opposition - non of those behind him at Sandown should reverse the form. The Sandown race has produced the winner on many occasions which is a/n factor in `K` favour.

Jessica`s Dream was behind `K` at Newmarket. Has won a Gp3 in Ireland since. That run doesn`t compare with `K` latest win.

The Trader - not consistent on the ratings or well placed on ability. That said, has to be respected on his RHR and SS figures. His recent win however cannot compare with `K`.

I feel the only danger is the draw, ie - no` 3. I`m of the opinion the runners will come across to the stands side rail. `K` will I expect be dropped in. Lets hope the gaps arrive.

The draw has to be the `risk` factor. At evens or better `K` has to be a strong VDW bet.

All that said, I have an uneasy feeling about the race and do not therefore intend placing my `millions`.

Cheers,

at the likely prices i would rather take jessica's dream e/w.
i fully expect kyllachy to run into 2nd or 3rd behind my selection.
conditions today appear ideal for jessica's dream and looks a very good bet.

Determined,
Excellent summing up of the Kings stand stakes. Notwithstanding any possible draw bias which is always a worry on the first day of meetings like these, Kyllachy simply has to reproduce his form while all the others have to improve upon what they have achieved to date.
regards,

Max,

Good luck with Jessica`s Dream.



Statajack,

Looks as though Kyllachy is " a winner in the race ".
Good luck if your `millions ` are on.


Queen Anne Stks

Looks a race full of conflict, ie - non of the 3 most consistent from the f/c are well placed on ability.
Of those well placed on ability No Excuses Needed has very good Gp 1 form from last season. If ground conditions suit ( good or better ) I expect him to run a big race although he will not carry my money.

Trainers hcap their own horses.

Jabaar in the 4.55 could be one to be on. Very consistent and well placed in the f/c. Heavily supported when winning at Newmarket under 10-00.
Has 7 lbs less to carry today. I was very taken with the way he travelled throughout the N`kt race.
Why haven`t we seen him since ? He`s been saved for this ?
Opposition - a weak field this year with the exception of Takamaka Bay who didn`t show at Epsom and will need the run again today ( Haydock - Old Newton Cup ? ).

Cheers,

century city

The very respected MD was invited to comment on todays racing by the BBC.

He was very strong on Rock Of Gibralter.

He believes the draw maybe against Kyllachy in view of which "he`ll be around a 5/4 chance"

With regards Jabaar - a horse he likes very much but "cannot win from that draw".

Cheers,

Up in both class value and against far tougher opposition.

Off a far higher hcap mark. Badly drawn and possibly over the wrong distance.

Despite all that I still put him up as a probable winner.

What do I know.

Thank goodness my hard earned monies stayed in my pocket.



Rock Of Gibralter/Kyllachy.

Even money was availible for ROG. I suspect Guest, Statajack, etc cleaned up.

That said, Kyllachy failed to deliver.

Cheers,

Statajack,

I found your posts of the 16th very useful.The use of speed figures as an extra measure of 3 year olds against older horses may seem fundamental to some but it was something I hadn't given a great deal of thought to before.

It was also interesting to see how you used the fundamental data.

Just thought I would let you know that I thought it had helped me.

determined,

i dont think kyllachy's run was a downturn in form, it was given a lot to do, in hindsight too much.

Kyllachy - personally I believe it may have been a downturn. He had a similar amount to make up at Newmarket but he got there through his excellent turn of foot.
Today if he was good enough he should have won. That vital turn of speed wasn`t there ?

Some will use Continent as a yardstick suggesting it was a downturn given that `C` was in front of him today.

With regards to Continent - in my opinion and I must be careful what words I use, the horse was after the prize today. Several of his previous runs were an illusion of his true merits. Another reason for his improved showing was the wearing of a tongue strap.

His trainer D.Nicholls is very hard to read but when he`s after a prize he`s rarely far away and tomorrow will be no exception.

I`ve no idea how Scotty`s Future will come out from a VDW perspective but on Determined`s methodology he`s got to be on the shortlist.

Cheers,

Given luck in running Kyllachy would have won but was unable to get going until too late after having to be switched wide, so I'm with Barney on this one.These things happen and we have to be philosophical about them. It seemed a tricky day at ascot with the exception of Kyllachy and ROG but I dont back at those prices. The 4.35 and 5.10 at Thirsk both went to the class/form horses though, at 7/4 and 2/1 respectively. If you do the methodology as for Palace Affair they stand out like sore thumbs.

Bream,
Glad you found it useful, that was the intention behind the posts. The SFs are for any races that have 3 yos in them as they may not have an ability rating yet but could still be useful animals. Try it for the Al Azhar and Dakota Sioux races today (although I only used SFs for AA's race to save time in truth).If you look at those with PA's race on sunday certain things stand out.
regards,

Had a quick look at the 2 Thirsk races and I see exactly what Statajack means.

Is this the start of the period when these good things become the norm` ?

Cheers,

Statajack,

would the two races have featured in the spells it out article, i think not. why then do you ignore this bit?

please understand i'm not being critical in anyway but would like to draw from your experience.

determind,

kylachy ran to if not better than LTO,continent however did have the form in the book but not at this leval or with that weight,so today showed some considerable improvement. i work it out as 6/7 lengths-no mean training feat, or they will all be fitting tongue ties tommorow.

Barney,
You've lost me totally. Do you mean in terms of the races set to be analysed according to VDW? If so, Dakota Sioux's race was the top race from the other meeting and qualified but just a quick glance at Al Azhar's race showed it to be worth a further look. In terms of the races to look at, you dont have to conform exactly to what is said in Golden Years but if the process is done exactly the same way every time bets will be found. It works better in higher class races due to the fact that the runners are more likely to be consistent and give their true running, but he also used a selling race to show the validity of what he was saying. Look at the races AA had won in the past compared to its opponents.There is a pattern in those 2 races at Thirsk which was there in Palace Affairs race and was there in all the examples in Spells it out and numerous other examples besides.
regards,