305a

c/f horses

milenary
asian heights
zindabad
storming home
boreas
high pitched
potemkin
the mask
yavana's pace

ability horses

milenary
storming home
zindabad
yavanas pace
potemkin asian heights


first five in betting

milinary
high pitched
storming home
asian heights
zindabad


value of best race won

milinary
storming home
zindabad

down in race value

storming home
zindabad


we now have a numerical picture

horses common to top four in all lists

milenary and storming home.

now study the form of all concerned.(hard work?)

milenry, storming home and zindabad are all closely matched on consistency and form, on a form basis high pitched also enters the equation - a book with the first two will give a profit which is acceptable at a push storming home will prevail

Hardwicke Stakes – too difficult ?

A very competitive race with several horses who may not yet have the form in the book but are open to significant improvement namely Asian Heights and High Pitched. Given these unexposed types is there too much conflict ?

Millenary is 1st on class/form followed by Storming Home on 2nd.

Millenary has Group 1 winning form from the 2000 St Leger and won the Group 2 Jockey Club Stks on seasonal debut in 2001 but hasn`t won since. The form book clearly shows he acts on good/firm but he`s far better when there is no jar in the ground. Watching him beaten in the Geoffrey Freer last season he hated the fast ground. The uphill finish will help today but the fast ground is just one concern for me. The other question is his form, ie – is it good enough ?
I take the view which I accept others may question that his overall form falls short today.

Storming Home – has ideal conditions for the 1st time this season today. His 2 runs over the course read very well most notably his 4th in the King George last year. A reproduction of that form in my opinion will see him take the prize today.

Risk element – lack of pace in the race will hopefully not be a problem as I take the view Y. Pace will may it a true run race. The likely improvers named above as yet do not have the form in the book and both will benefit from easier ground conditions.

Summary – I will opposing the 1st on class/form namely `M` with Storming Home.

Good luck,



Barney,

Well done in the 8.00 Goodwood last night. My 2 are still running. Just as well I didn`t invest.

*** had a decent bet on Balakheri yesterday despite not figuring in the VDW methodology.

Cheers,

Was preparing my comments on word at the same time you must have been sending your post.

Lump on Storming Home.

Good luck,

hi determined,

we must be getting nearer eh ?its about time!

i like indian country to beat invincible spirit

Why has Eddery got off I.Spirit for the other Dunlop runner.

Race too difficult for me.

Tha last race at Ascot has alot of scope. More `much` later.

Big job on today. Bl--- garden.

Cheers,

golf calls

good luck everyone

i,m surprised nobody has mentioned this horse,maybe some feel he,s out of form could it be an illusion,running today over his favoured trip ground no problem,in my opinion another gp1 victory for ballydoyle

Thanks Barney,
Redcar 3.25 could there be a multiple wager,Gralmano and Stretton?

Hope you were on Gralmano. I didn`t have a bet in the race but I would have agreed with your 2 probables.

I had what I thought were 2 strong investments today namely Storming Home and Cover Up.

SH was beaten on merit therefore no complaints.

CU at 7/2 was very nice although Mr Fallon nearly dropped a major boll---.

Cheers,

Indian Country ran a hell of a race and has clearly marked his card.

Also, Border Subject if getting a racing weight in the Stewards Cup (on decent ground) will take some beating.

Cheers,

Throughout the week the O`Brien camp has consistently suggested `J` will need the run and if listening John Magnier prior to the race there was no confidence.

Also, the betting told a very clear story which was confirmed in the race. Hope you decided not to play.

I`ve yet to watch a recording of the race but one has to ask the question, has he trained on ?

I feel he has but it will be a big ask for him to turn out in the July Cup.

In my opinion we may see Rock Of Gibralter in the said race.

Cheers,

VDW: vacilating, dithering, wavering: very different way? I think you people are crazy. Allan Potts said amongst the requirments in a successful bettor's psychology is self confidence to the point of arrogance, think from another shadow, where are you going? On this thread the exemplifier was considered to be "Guest", I've had my own contratemps with Guest but I can see, since he left, your general tendency to divorce youselves from the principles that he advocated. This thread no longer investigates the meaning of VDW's message.

You have a valid point.

Perhaps you can persuade Guest to come back to put us back on the straight and narrow.

Thanks for the reply. This "continued" thread was started by Swish with the idea that the membership discuss and analyse the works of VDW. It hasn't functioned in this way for a long time. The default experts have made great play of "hidden factors", Barney says he has so far discovered about 35 of these stating that the selector needs to review all of these for all the field. If that is the case, at least 30 of them can be thrown open for scrutiny by the membership without compromising the "profitability of the method". As far as I'm able to judge none of the VDW disciples are hitting the 80% aimed for so I dont understand why they are reluctant to put their ideas into the public sphere, after all that is the function of a discussion group. Fortunately I'm sufficiently arrogant that I believe in myself without the need for VDW, nevertheless I would like to consider the theory. The only words of VDW that I've read are those that have appeared on this site, at best they strike me as common sense, particularly to the effect that 1, the punter is continually putting the odds against himself, 2, never ask a horse to do what it hasn't already done and 3, choose all age races. On top of which Guest has many times said that we should consider facts not opinions, from these various considerations it's difficult to understand why races from Royal Ascott came under discussion. Even more puzzling is Statajack dismissing a race because of Postmark ratings. The VDW people are objective enough to think official ratings are mere opinion but Postmark... Really, isn't it time to get back on track?

deteremined one of the key elements of vdw,s 3 yr old betting stratergy was to select horses that had not been "run into the ground" as 2yr olds.

johanasburg looks to be a case in point.

Epiglotis


You commented that "This thread no longer investigates the meaning of VDW's message".

For the last couple of months your comment has been a substantially correct description of the situation. By early May (as I noted in a post to Greg) it was fairly clear that, at least for the time being, the predominant interest was in posting selections per se, rather than using them (and of course other means) seriously to explore VDW's ideas.

I think there are several reasons for this: the intrinsic complexity of VDW's work being one, as sustained returns for effort put in are not immediate (one poster, I think very aptly, likened studying VDW's work as on a par with serious degree level study). There is also the point made more than once by Guest: that aspects of VDW's thinking need a great deal of teasing out and it is not in the interest of anyone who has put in the time and effort to discover at least some of them to spell them out in a public forum.

Despite this latter point, Guest nevertheless showed himself willing to give students of VDW's work some very valuable pointers. In my view it was the interchange in exploring those that made this thread so fruitful over the last Winter/Spring. All those posts remain available for study and provide a unique resource for those wishing (in your phrase) to "investigate the meaning of VDW's message".

A final comment. I think that the 80% strike rate business is something of a red herring. Unless one sticks to the Rocks of Gibraltars of this world (and has correspondingly few bets), I doubt that anyone is sustaining an 80% plus strike rate LONG TERM. But achieving the decent returns Guest demonstrated in the pre-race selections he posted on the thread is utterly realistic, and indeed one senses that, for Guest, those results may have been on the poorer side of normal.

hi epiglotis,

i like you think that 80% is impossible for beginners like myself and determined to achieve,however there is a constant stream of winners at all manner of prices.

the race the other day contained an example of his methodology that has given me manny many winners this year both flat and jumps, i am asuming that people spot the factors, perhaps i should assume that people cant be bothered to look at the races mentioned, as there is seldom any feedback

determined ,can i'm sure, speak for himself but i have tried in my own way to help shed some light in a way that directs to specific races and horses for those that do not have the books or inclination to get them.I dont know why i should as its cost me over £400 pounds this year on form books alone.Thats not including this seasons flat and jumps .

i am still learning. I have never studied the ascot crds in the way that I have this year.next year, and possible this year, i will not be betting on o'brien horses that have run all round europe looking for soft ground instead of coming over here on good or g/f.

thats makes it 37 and its not hidden but unseen by most.

look at his runners this week if you care to develop this point and see where his winners came from and the path they trod.luckily i spotted this hidden factor just in time to get on sophisticat(not that it was the only one)

if you have time try to join in and give your opiniion on a race or even start the ball rolling when we are all looking at the same card at the same time you will see something new and valid every time.

Thanks for the thoughtful replies, I will think about things further.

Barney/Epiglotis/Anyone,
Surely Gossamer had all the attributes of a vdw type.Ok the ground was against her,therefore would vdw have left the race alone,A bit puzzled pipedreamer