arrowson,

I have him as "not a form horse for this race"

Mickeddy recently posted a list of strike rate by consistency rating. As these figures were only for the flat one would expect them to be lower than the VDW figures. I assume that VDW's figures were meant to represent all races not just those that he used, in any case the majority of VDW bets were in NH races where one expects higher levels of consistency, VDW theory also concentrates on higher class races in which a comparitively large section of the runners can be expected to have low figures. It should also be born in mind that the VDW selections were probably made after the result was known and were chosen to fit the theory, as a good consistency rating figure is one of the major elements of the theory one would expect this to be reflected in the results without necessarily having any relevence to selection.

You are again making noises about the effectiveness of VDW's method, however I believe that your recent behaviour demonstrates that you are definitely not employing the method of VDW. If you consult your records you will find that your method varies between a high degree of accuracy and complete irrelevence, that you are unwilling to address this problem by being more discriminative about any race's suitability for analysis means that you refuse to take control of this aspect of the process, in short it is a matter of chance that the race you are investigating is or is not suitable for your analytic method. As VDW theory specifically states that no element of a gamble be allowed to creep in your method can not be that of VDW.

Barney,

Zonergem - only saw the last half furlong on Sky Sports news but Quinnºs limited effort adds to my theory.

Hope you didnºt lose too much if you played.


Mtoto,

Well done with FUTB. A very improved horse at the top of his game. Iºll be interested in the speed figure recorded.

Cheers,

79 Chesterfield Cup,

Philodantes - his last run at Ascot had to be an example of the illusion of form ????

Also, ºPº was clearly worse off at the wgts with both Doogali and Effulgence but that clearly has no relevance.

*** these old egºs do tell us quite alot ! ***

Parasol,

Faces 3 likely improvers namely B.Sun, Bustan and Gallant Hero and is not a good thing at the odds.

Pablo - will not win.

*** in my opinion ***

Determined

Zonergem is a horse that needs kidding. Witness his win at Ascot last year when picking his way through the field to win ridiculously comfortably. I suspect that perceived 'limited effort' is an order not to touch him too much or he'll jack it in. For a horse with ability to burn at this level he doesn't have a particularly good win record and, while I might not oppose him, he's not one I'd be too keen to support.

Rob

Rob,

I agree he is a difficult ride and yes his Acot win of last year is not good enough to win a Hunt Cup but have we seen the best of him yet ?

I doubt it.



All,

Iºll be very interested in how Hugs Dancer looks from a VDW angle tomorrow !

Epiglotis

I'm open to being told that I'm failing to incorporate some vital element of VDW's approach by someone who knows his writings and examples better, or who has made more creative use of his/her knowledge, than me. But while that class may contain numerous members, you most assuredly are not one of them.

Fulham
With the 3yold's to follow,Wouldn't Weavers pride now be struck off that list,After the last win,Where i believe the horse was a good thing.Or am i misunderstanding the method.

Fulham,

Re Weavers Pride, Lago D'Orta and Boston Lodge look to be drawn out of it.

Oldtimer

Investor

It's a fair question for which I don't have a confident answer. In the four "A" examples VDW gave us, none was backed first time out as a 3yo. Was that policy, or because VDW didn't think them strong enough to back in those particular races? We know that, in other examples, he was happy to back fto three year olds.

But it is clear that winning as a 3yo does not mean automatic removal from the list - Assatis was such a horse, which VDW seems to have followed throughout his 3yo career.

Personally, I don't back any horse from the list fto as a 3yo, and watch them thereafter until either they have won a race I judge they ought to have, or the end of the season. Hence Weaver's Pride is still very much on the active list for me.


Oldtimer

You could very well be proved right, but with Fallon up I don't see stall 9 as impossible. Remember that last year he won the 5f event (4.40 today) drawn 11 of 12, though admittedly with only ten runners.

I see Boston Lodge as the c/f, but not a rock solid one in what, overall, is simply too difficult a race for me. Good luck if you are backing Weaver's Pride. His winning would certainly be no shock.

Old timer

If there's one distance at Chester that favours inside draws less than the others it's in 7f 122y races, because there's more of a straight run before the first significant turn. Low numbers are still favoured to a certain extent. However Lago D'Orta, drawn 12 of 16 seemed more favoured by the way the race was run than anything else. To my mind the leaders went off too quickly and set the race up for anything coming from off the pace. In this instance the wider drawn runners could settle in behind and pick off the field in the last couple of furlongs.

Rob

Rob,

Too true, I remember another horse winning the race from a wide draw some years back. Must be nice to be able to watch the races instead of just get the lifeless results and not know how the horses ran. It's impossible for me to go through all the results one by one, which is why I used to find dataform so useful for giving you a line on how they'd run. Sadly they're still showing cards from two weeks ago.

Funnily enough though, even though Chesterwas my home course I've rarely enjoyed much good fortune there. Ofcourse in my day this was the only meeting of the year.

Cheers

Oldtimer

Oldtimer

I've got a good record at Chester, but only in the longer races. Despite the draw bias I've always struggled at distance under 1m 2f. The longer races tend to be true run affairs. Parasol stood out for me today. It didn't show top on Ability, but couldn't be faulted on Consistency. The key point is that it was an in-form horse pitched at a level it had proved capable of handling, suited by the conditions and with form round the tight Lingfield A/W track that
suggested Chester would be no problem.

Rob

Rob,

Well done with Parasol.


All,

It would be very much appreciated if someone could put up the ability ratings for the Chester Cup.

Hope I do not offend anybody by asking.

Cheers,

Rob,

Well done with Parasol.


All,

It would be very much appreciated if someone could put up the ability ratings for the Chester Cup.

Hope I do not offend anybody by asking.

Cheers,

Rob,

Well done with Parasol.


All,

It would be very much appreciated if someone could put up the ability ratings for the Chester Cup.

Hope I do not offend anybody by asking.

Cheers,

what happened D,
did something gorgeous in a bikikini just meander by???

Hi all,
Tote Chester Cup Ability Ratings
Cover Up 154*
Bourgeois 109
Swing Wing 65
Canada 80
Distant Prospect 240*
Hugs Dancer 314*
Big Moment 70
Direct Bearing 66
Bay Of Islands 190*
Riyadh 122
Royal Cavalier 99
Romany Prince 47
Flownaway 44
High And Mighty 139
Knavesmire Omen 72
Pepe Galvaz 0
Fortune Island 78
Rahwaan 55