Small fields any easier ? Not really !

I cannot even identify the class/form horses in the 3.50 Leicester.

Races worthy of consideration in my opinion are

3.20, 3.50 & 4.20 Leicester

2.30 & 3.30 Salisbury

3.45 Carlisle.

Anybody interested ?

Where have you been ?

Determined,

Of your list there's only one I'm looking at - Leicester 3.20 - and will post my thoughts later.

Cheers

Oldtimer

The ability ratings ( OR in brackets ) read as follows,

Murghem 186 ( 107 )
Capal Garmon 162 ( 109 )
Border Arrow 147 ( 112 )
Island House 135 ( 113 )
Imperial Dancer 118 ( 114 ).

From the top,

Murghem - well beaten on seasonal in competitve Gp 3 over the wrong trip ( too induce stamina/fitness). Didn`t win in 2001 but a Gp 2 winner in 2000. Trainer in form. Has won this race on several occasions BUT IS THE HORSE IN FORM ?

C.Garmen - has a penalty, well btn FTO and the distance has to be wrong ?

B.Arrow - formbook says he has never won over the distance but he does have group class form at the trip. Clearly in form judged on his last run and must therefore 1st on class/form.

I.House - seasonal debut was acareer best effort but 2 runs since have seen him btn` at odds on. 3 attempts at the distance have been disappointing yet he is a winner over 11 fur`s. Has to be second on class/form.

I.Dancer - distance all wrong.

So with my novice head on I have B.Arrow & I.House as the class/form horses.

**** any comments so far ? ****

Cheers,

Ability ratings followed by OR.

Repertory 198 110
Whitbarrow 157 113
Palace Affair 122 102
Lady Links 109 98

Repertory has run 67 races. Only 4 were over todays trip and in each race he finished well bt`n. Distance is clearly wrong & he is passed over.

Class/form horse are Whitbarrow & P.Affair.

Whitbarrow has many plus points however when reviewing all the opposition Hiddendale looks a very big threat.

Cheers,

hi determined,

Have you always worked incorporating the ability & official ratings in this manner or is this something you have noted & found significance in recently?.
mac.

Determined
I agree with your Class/ form horses particularly as both horses have posted times which support listed class status (Border's is prob Gp 3 level)with only imperial dancer coming close over an easier 10F.
Island House's time came over 12F @ Newmarket and IMO he is the likely winner particularly as I think Border Arrow may be over the top as shown in his last race when he was pushed along in the straight before being ridden over 1 out.
But given Johnston's liking for this race murghem top on ability could be a fly in the ointment so it has to be no bet for me.

Cheers

In Golden Years VDW advocates that with any races with 3 YO's in them, The "Split Second" figures should be used as an extra measure of a horse's ability along with the ability rating. This is so horses like Hiddendale who are possibly unexposed can be accounted for so adding those into the equation we get:

Cons ability SS
Whitbarrow 15 157 106
Palace Affair 8 122 110
Repertory 15 198 110
Lady links 11 109 111
Ashdown Express (13) (103)
Hiddendale (14) (102)

So just looking at this initial picture we see a likely winner in the field but is certainly NOT Whitbarrow.Not in the top 3 for consistency and with a SS figure some way below the top. Given that Repertory doesnt last 6 furlongs who is our likely winner? Does Palace Affair get ratings support? Yes, top rated by Raceform ratings and Postmark's pick. All in all a good thing!
Applying the same process to Island House's race it throws up Island House and Border arrow. Island House looks to be the better of the 2 and the likely winner but there is conflict as G. Hepburn pointed out so not worth the risk at the likely odds. I'm posting this at around 5.30pm but the figures used in this illustration were online long before the off. The initial picture alone has shown that Whitbarrow was not the good thing as was supposed, but that Palace affair had a lot going for it.
The 2 listed races today were excellent examples of the method in action so I hope this helps people.
regards,

hi statajack,


i thought at first there appeared to be conflict in the ratings amongst the sf.

i looked at my data source and lady links comes out as 106 not 111.

where have you got that rating from?

Barney,
The speed figures come from Split Second in Raceform Update which is the original source VDW advised using for races involving 3 YO's. Letter 47 in Golden Years explains the reasoning. I have checked both Raceform on saturday and this weeks RU and the figure for Lady Links is 111.
On the face of it Whitbarrow appeared to be the form horse after winning first time out but doing the full procedure gives a different story so a bit of digging is then needed. Also, have a look at Whitbarrow's postmark figures, what happens after every good run? Contrast that with Palace Affair's last 3 runs, which one is most likely to give its running? The more you dig the more negatives you find about Whitbarrow, none of which would have been apparent if the initial procedure hadn't been done properly.
regards,

stata thanks,

You are prepared to go outwith the first 2 on ability on ocassion according to your posting last but one, personally dont have a problem with that, when the opportunity arises would go out even further, though not often, granted!.

good to see you on again lee, barney if your still on you fancy a chat tonight? nothing serious just a blether, lol.

mac.

bream,

Hope you`ve noted stata`s last posting re- bouncing.

mac.

thanks statajack,

i was using the 2yr old figure.

i didnt consider any races today as was otherwise engaged, fathers day and all that, looks like i missed a couple of good uns. i probably would have missed them though.how did you dismiss LL, like i said not seen the card?

Seeing the likes of Statajack at work leaves me in no doubt that my novice tag will remain for some time yet.

I actually backed Island House taking the 13/8. I accept there was conflict. I just got lucky.

Thankfully I didn`t invest on Whitbarrow or Hiddendale. I watched the race and `W` certainly ran as Statajack expected.

Mac,

The majority of the experts on here do not take too much notice of the OR. From memory, I believe Guest says they are somebodies opinion and therefore not fact.

Graham,

A very good post earlier. More of the same please.

Cheers,

has anyone looked yet at desert hero

those surely must have been the golden years, there is no chance that they would get that in twice at 20/1 nowadays.

another pk type

hi determined ,

Barney along with guest, have in the past more or less said o/r`s may have a part to play but are not really intrinsic in the overall process , and knowing you respect both, but then putting the o/r`s up earlier today as part of your evaluation was somewhat puzzled, thought you had gained some other insight into the methods, just me being curious determined sorry.
mac.

Mac,

Its me who should apologise for causing confusion.

Sorry.

mac

see you in there 5 mins


what about you mark?

cant find the chat room

where has it gone??

lol same here ,

help anyone!

p.s who`s mark?.