In my opinion if one can find a definite factor against the 1st class/form horse, Gossamer being a case in point then there is no reason not to invest in the race.

From memory Guest has on this thread shown that he has backed against the class/form horse.

I expected Gossamer to struggle on the firm ground and in my opinion so did the majority given her price, ie - 2/1 availible.

I couldn`t find one to beat her unlike Barney and therefore left the race alone.

A similar situation occured (again in my opinion yesterday) where I felt Millenary was beatable. I supported my judgement with a decent bet on Storming home who just failed.

Not been clever, over the past week I have had decent bets on the following horses the majority of which either went against the class/form horses or were considered well placed on class/form but some considered factors against,

16/06/02 Island Light 13/8 1st
20/06/02 Vinnie Roe 5/2 2nd
21/06/02 Balakheri 11/4 1st
22/06/02 Storming Home 7/2 2nd
Cover Up 7/2 1st

The experts will I guess query all those bets but I`m comfortable with them. OK, I`ll never hit 80% but all were confident investments based on my reading of form.

Hope it helps.

***** the downside to all this is temperament, ie - I`ve always loved h`caps and I am still stuggling to leave these 20 runner plus h`caps alone. Several small bets over the week in the big Ascot h`caps have seen the majority of profit lost.

This is totally unacceptable and unless I get a grip all my hard work will come to nothing.

Cheers,

Pipedreamer,
I think youve answered your own question re Gossamer. With Stretton/Gralmano you could have saved dutching on the two. Stretton was carrying 10 stone, much more physical weight than the horse has ever won with before and was 5lb higher in the official ratings than his highest rated/best win. Horses with a combination of both these negative factors do not often win.

Epiglotis,
Exactly which race/horse did I throw out due to postmark ratings?
regards,

pipe dreamer,

IT WAS NOT THE GROUND THAT BEAT THAT HORSE

give me your e-mail and will tell you the races to look at.

Gossamer - not the ground ?

Perhaps you could educate me please !

Cheers,

Barney,
I presume you were referring to Sophisticat's form lines. Would it have beaten Gossamer if the going had been soft?
regards,

hi

both zenda and sophisticat would have beaten it on soft.and a couple of others would have given it a damn good run

Hi,

I joined this board when I noticed the thread that mentioned vdw. I firmly believe the man was on to something that made a lot of sense. Good consistent horses with proven ability win races, I don't think anyone can argue with that. The aim was to see if anyone could help me improve on the main elements of his thinking. I was, and am still not happy with the ability rating. Also the consistency rating gives me problems, why is a close up 4th or 5th beaten less than say a length awarded less points than a distant 2nd or 3rd. I did think with the amount of technology (and brains) now available we could have improved on the basic platform.

Along comes Guest, who has obviously studied vdw. He starts to give vdw selections that for me fail in the basic elements of not being consistent, Florida Pearl for one. Although he does solve one long standing problem for me, namely a reason why Beacon Light is rejected. I must admit it is not a reason I would except, but it has been proven right a couple of times this week. So Guest has been a big help in understanding a possible insight into the way vdw thought. For which I thank him. Guest has cut back his postings, and they have been replaced by posting that appear to be geared to selecting the winner. However they don't explain the thinking behind the selection. For me they at times don't even make it clear which horse they are talking about. Now that may just be me, being thick.

I don't expect people to lay it on a plate for anyone, but how about a little more talking in general terms about the elements of the method. i.e. what is good form, and how do you judge it? I know the consistent horse is not always the form horse, but the fact that a horse is consistent does show an element of class. To still be placed when things go against it, hampered, wrong distance, wrong course, wrong going, and still be placed takes a little class. Beaten favourite, is it out of form? Who makes it favourite? is it clever money or just media hype? Did vdw actually say don't back a horse to do what it has never done before, or is this another saying that has been laid at his door?

Determined.

I like your postings and don't think there is much wrong with your understanding of vdw.
In most cases I can follow your logic. I am a bit surprised you had trouble with the handicaps at Ascot. I know my thinking isn't standard vdw, but applying my understanding I had 4th 20/1 e/w, L e/w, W 9/1, 2nd 10/1 e/w. Those were SP's I managed to get better on most. When you play in these races you KNOW they will be trying and that the races will be run at a true pace, except for the marathon. The losing race was run at a quick walk, just what I didn't want

Be Lucky

hi mtoto

welcome back

yet again the very questions you ask are the key when answered. guest was very guarded in some of his answers but all the questions have been answered in on way or another.it is almost impossible to give any more without spelling it out

form is the key and has many facets they form a triangle pointing to winners.

at its base is class(not numerical class) to the left consistency and to the right ability all pointing to a winner in a race.

try looking in the opposit direction from beacon light its polar in its aspect of what we look for.


distances won by or beaten by are relevant but onl;y in the context of what class of the other runners( just try doing it without OR).judge the performance itself not the numbers.

hope this helps

after further thought


thats the whole point of getting the form books and going through the examples then most is revealed.IF you can also take into account guests pointers then there is a lot more to be had.

Determined/Statajack/Barney,
Thanks for the feedback and help,much appreciated.

Barney,
try mcunningham@garveys.ie

Barney

Sorry i cant help with the VDW method as yet because im one of those among us who have not got the form books yet,
But going by your post (welcome back) it seems to me that i am on the right track, Those of you who have posted in the past i thank you all, You have put up with us who are a bit slow on the uptake which must be a bit annoying sometimes.

Re 80%
I believe VDW said in one of the books that he only had about 12 bets a year which in his eyes were certs, So as he has said before temperament seems to be the key to the 80% you just have to wait for the right horse with all the right things going for it then jump on it.
When i get a bit more courage with my investments i will post them for all to see and debate on what and why they were chosen till then please keep the posts coming i for one enjoy reading every one of them even if i dont post about them , Again thanks sorry its so long winded.

michael.

Hi Barney,

I'm sure you are trying to help. Once again you have completely confused me. In your triangle aren't 2 of the sides the same thing? Ability and class aren't they the same, vdw style? You finish by saying judge the class of the beaten horses. How do you do that, without OR's and/or speed figures? I can't except it can be gauged by the value of the race. One example, a recent race at Redcar, Worth £20,000 +( a 105 B handicap). On the face of it a good class race, the top weight had an OR of 84. If this is not taken into account the resulting figures a usless. How many horses run in a 105 race when the best horse is rated that low? Class has to be judged against something, and penalty value by it's self is not enough.

You mention the form books, although I don't have many old ones I do have the complete form of some of the old vdw examples. Maybe you could point me and some of the others in the right direction. Could you tell me which race convinced you PK had the class to win the Erin? Or for that matter Celtic Pleasure, or any of the other early examples. PK didn't have the class based on it's ability rating, and for me it's last race was a negative rather than positive.

While I agree Guest's pointers have been helpful. I am not convinced that his interpretation of vdw's theories are pure vdw. Or for that matter some of vdw's theories can't be improved. Another question is when does opinion become fact? If we don't use opinion we may as well throw the form book away. The form book is full of opinion, down to the distances of horses winning and beaten. They are based on time.

To finish I would just say I didn't go into to much detail with Gossamer after I knew the going was firm. I saw the Guineas and she couldn't act of the firm. She ran her worst race, much of the time side ways. She never got into full stride, when she tried she stumbled. She couldn't act on the going full stop. I think you would have been a brave man to take her on if there had been ANY give in the going. There again just another opinion!

Be Lucky

while there is interest in this race's outcome.

i will try to go through it without spelling it out.

start at the begining;group 1 race over 1 mile

horses with runs at this leval(forget distance just yet)or just below

look at the form of all thes horses in comparison

dolores,gossamer,lady high havens,maryinsky,misterah,red liason,shiny,sophisticat,zenda,

dolores- likes top of the ground, maiden the upped in class whrere improved performance then dropped to collect LTO(roushayd and a good thing) back up in class(bounce?).

gossamer- start in a maiden with reasonable performance,has been upped in distance and form deteriorates.needs slow ground as shown by newmarket race.

lady high havens- shown ability in race at ascot then disqualified.real leval is shown in july races.

maryinski- good form as 2yr old aimed far to high so far at 3.

misterah- very consistant running as well in g2 and 3 as in maiden??when upped at newmarket shown real leval of ability.good thing next time if placed at right leval.

red liason- consistent but not enough shown so far,upped at germany, slow ground good performance then dropped (another roushayd)bounce!!

shiny- good performance at new then upped then dropped (didnt do it),then dropped again(still didnt do it.

sophisticat- good performance at york( in comparrison) good performance again next time,and then another,(very consistent on all ground).outstanding performance when upped at belmont park( likes fast ground),excellent class performance at long on slower ground.third to zenda lTO when ground not ideal but phew what a race. lost his TOF in that ground.

zenda-poor as 2yr old, good performance on reapearance, excellent performance at longchamp on soft(far better than any gossamer run so far) failed on heavy.

always its a balance, several have form on this ground sophisticat had the best leval of form on this ground and more importantly had shown on all grounds what he was capable of at this distance,


horses dont now their rating they dont know who they run against and they dont know the class of race they run in--- THEY JUST RUN.

hope this helps any points please ask i will try my best

mtoto,
ability can be judged as class a class performance cannot be judged as ability.

if there are three in a race with the same class and all are consistent then which has the most ability.

to make it even for those without pk or celtic pleasure -

for zenda the longchamp race showed ability without class, the windsor race showed class without ability.

sophisticat- belmont showed fantastic abilty( its hard to be classy at that leval)at longchamp showed ability and class. better than all other performances in that race card.


try rating those races with OR!!!


PS.i didnt say judge the beaten horses i said judge the performance

[This message was edited by Barney on June 23, 2002 at 06:28 PM.]

Sorry Barney TRNI is the American Racing Channel on Digital TV.On from about 6p.m-11.45p.m.every night.Some of the stuff they have on is quite humorous and they always do e-mails periodically.One of the people who regularly sends them in is A guy called Barney and I thought it could be you.

Hi,

Have read & tried to understand this thread for a while now and have to disagree with a recent posting that the thread has gone off track recently, im still getting help from the posts but those of mimas & hedgehog in 122 stick out & then barneys pointer the other day re- letter 36 paras 11 & 12, what else can these people do? they can only help others at the level they are at themselves and surely that warrants praise more than anything else, they are taking the time to try to help at least, & that says it all for me!.

mac.

You state that Zenda`s French win was a far better performance than any Gossamer had put up so far.

Gossamer was rather impressive when winning the Irish Guineas.

Is your statement therefore just your opinion or a statement of fact ?

I for one couldn`t come to such a clear conclusion. Where am I going wrong ?



Also, ability and class performance you say are not the same. Again, something I must get my head around.

An example,

horse A finishes 2nd beaten a head in a fast run race, the race being a £50k h`cap. Its ability rating coming into the race is say 50.

horse B with an ability rating of 110 has just finished 5th beaten 3 lengths in a fast run h`cap worth £50k.

They meet in their next race (level wgts) in a £50k h`cap. Both have ideal going, etc in their favour.

Which one do we back ?

Cheers,

determined,

in my eyes fact.

the example you give is not enough to go on

is A up down in weight is B

what are their capabilities judged by their entire carrer.

has the horse been prepared on a stiffer or similar track

whose the best at that distance

what are the styles of running

what are the styles of other runners in the race

will there be pace or a sprint finish

who is the jockey

is the trainer consistent in his placement

what is the horses win pattern

are they fresh or tired

how did it achieve its place

chasing held up

blocked in



you can go on and on and on

and then still be wrong

"In your eyes fact"

Is that therefore your opinion.

Coming into the Coronation Gossamer had won the Irish Gns by 4 1/2 lgth`s leaving Zenda trailing in last place (hated the heavy going).

Zenda when winning the French Gns had Sophisticat behind.

I assume you are using `Soph` formlines from the previous season to base your `fact` that Zenda`s performance was better than Gossamer`s ?



With regards my question on horses A and B I accept more detail was required. One assumes the list you provided are some of the 35 - 36 factors you refer to.

I have been giving this ability v. class performance some thought and pages 18 - 19 of Systematic Betting may help me ?

"what is form if it is not that one performance is better than another. Logically form must represent a degree of achievement"

"Form is WHAT they did and class is the LEVEL it was achieved"

Cheers,