Just a quick word on Ascot so far.

I only backed one horse today, rather unexpectedly due to the price being way out of line with it's true chance.

It should be obvious which horse via the following question that one needed to ask after evaluating the races. Who represented the better bet at the odds, Kyllachy or Rock Of Gibraltar ?

One other question follows on concerning the markets. 9/2 last time then up in class at 11/10f or 4/7 last time in good class then 4/5 in similiar next ?

Note in relation Statue Of Liberty.

Food for thought maybe.

I do not want to push the point far but I note Postmark have rated Kyllachy`s performance yesterday = 112 compared to 125 when winning at Sandown.

Good luck today,

Cheers,

Statajack,

sorry what a stupid question, i was that bogged down in ascot never looked at thirsk.I'm a bit mixed up this week,sorry again.

Mixed up - regular feeling in this business.

I always thought there were 5 senses. I have a 6th namely mixedupmytosis.

Cheers,

Guest,
Based on that factor alone, Kazzia would not have been a bet in the oaks then would it? Up in class and 14/1 last time out by that reckoning.
regards,

I considered Kyllachy and Rock Of Gibraltar to be solid VDW selections yesterday but baulked at both because of the prices. I'm never keen on going in at short prices at big meetings.
I couldn't split Statue Of Liberty and Spartacus, so left that one, though S Of L did the biz, which at least proves I was along the right lines.

In the end I settled on backing Dakota Sioux, who looked pretty solid at Thirsk, though 2/1 SP was disappointing. A runner in form and running in the right class.

Today one horse catches my eye and that is Grandera. He had very sound form last season, being competitive in decent races. Hopefully he can build on his Group 1 win last time.

Rob

Good luck with Grandera.

Was being saved for the Eclipse but runs today instead due to his excellent work at home.

I haven`t evaluated the race in depth. One I do not think will win is Nayef.

On all known form Indian Creek cannot win but I anticipate a big run.

Cheers,

hi rob

nice to hear your views,

i have grandera c/f followed by the closely rated pair nayeff and banks hill.

grandera is in form and i think nayef needs a bit further now.

banks hill may have needed the pipe opener over an inadequate distance and is out of form.

banks hill is not as exposed as the other two and if back to fitness after that run will win.

the resulting conflict is enough to leave alone for me.

muddling through the conflict

has anyone an opinion on clever consul 355,

GOOD, BAD, INDIFERENT?

Barney

re Clever Consul, there are some similarities with the same trainer's 2000 success in the race - Barba Papa.

DETERMINED

thats because the have not spotted the real improvement by some others and have brought it down to their leval.

keep pushing it if you find why it wasnt a downturn it will help.

fulham,

who told you the bus driver, lol

shall we have a bit of fun

millenium dragon
rag top
carnival dancer(barney method)
stateroom
clever consul
tomamahawk

Trainers hcap their own horses. Bottom weight. A very clever placement.

Given the trainers excellent record over here he must be on everyone`s shortlist.

Riyadh has the `class` run to its name last time along with High and Mighty.

I`ve missed the morning prices but if the prices are right later on then I will be backing both CC and `R`.

Cheers,

Rob North,

Well done with Grandera, I find it impossible to deal with horses that run abroad as I can't get a line on them. Should teach me to leave stakes races alone and stick to handicaps - they're easier to work out.

Again well done.

Oldtimer

Well done Rob. That looks like 2 winning days in a row.
A man in form is always worth listening to. Look forward to your thoughts tomorrow.

Barney,

Will this conflict business ever go away. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Both you and I were confident Nayef couldn`t win.
What was wrong with backing both Banks Hill and Grandera ?
Any thoughts.

Cheers,

Oldtimer/ Determined

Thanks very much, I was very comfortable with both Dakota Sioux and Grandera as selections. Sometimes it just feels that they're right and things slot into place.
Regarding foreign form, I don't mind using it on occasions simply because I reckon it's undervalued sometimes. I think German form is particularly worth looking at, Nick Mordin often blows that particular trumpet. Italian form is more valuable now than a few years ago.
I've made a promise to stick to class C races or better this season. This reduces the number of races to be analysed and sticks to more reliable form. I've dotted around the classes too much in recent seasons.

Rob

well done rob on your selection,

determined

i often struggle when a couple or more from different methods conflict.

rob was right to consider it out of form as was i, but the obvious thing as you say was to back both just in case.

just to keep pushing it banks hill is still out of form.

Barney,

3rd of 4 against a horse who was soundly beaten yesterday, yes I agree that Banks Hill could be classed as not in form.

On bare ability ratings she was 3rd best. Both you and I agree that the 2nd rated namely Nayef wouldn`t win.

"when the prize is big enough the best horses seldom get beaten".

The very fact that Banks Hill was sent for todays prize suggests she was considered by connections as in form (hindsight).

Taking that view gives us 2 probables namely BH and `G`.

At the prices on offer if unable to split them on form then as stated earlier perhaps a book was the answer ?

Cheers,

Anybody draw any firm conclusions on this race ?

Statajack - The point re the markets and the observation about past sps is that horses who won when largely unexpected to last time often fail next time when a shorter price and perhaps up in class. Of course none of VDWs ideas were bound by hard rules and everything else has to be balanced out. Kazzia was very lightly raced and had done little wrong, where as Kyllachy was relatively exposed and clearly a poor value runner in such a class race. ROG had been there done it and got the teeshirt on all sorts of going at top level.

Two horses dominated the front page today, but both were not form horses, just as Kalanisi was not a form horse last year no matter how much money was bet on it. Fantastic Light was a racing certainty last year and the same connections provided the winner once more this year. The jockey even took the same route!