Walter - The reason for mentioning Olden Times was the same reasoning I believe VDW had for mentioning Silver Buck, Another Captain, Sea Pigeon, Lesley Ann, Failiq and in particular one horse in the Pegwell Bay evaluation. When you consider the whole evaluation process it should be obvious really.

Mtoto - I have double checked VDWs articles on the 2/3 yo front and he clearly states that in addition to his class/ability rating use as a further guide the speed/merit one he suggested. The ratings have to be related to form and class though to have any real use and once again in the Son Of Love example there is a clear indication as to his real level of form. It is interesting also that as with other VDW examples, the clue is held within the form for the runners as presented in the popular daily racing paper of the day. I believe VDW picked these examples specifically because the clue was there as the paper presented the form and not concealed to those without form books. In fact, if the clue wasn't there to see on the day, VDW gave us a nudge by mentioning the missing clues so that we may check for ourselves given a form book.

For info here are the top 10 ability and then merit ratings for the 79 Leger.

225 Soleil Noir
127 Milford
116 Lake City
112 Niniski
95 Imperial Fling
93 Reprocolour
86 Scorpio
84 Cracaval
49 Son Of Love
44 Noelino

Merit
88 Niniski
83 Cracaval
82 Reprocolour
78 Billbroker
76 Lake City
76 Serge Lifar
74 Imperial Fling
73 Torus
71 Noelino
70 Stetchworth

Pipedreamer

Yes, one of mine runs today - Hi Dubai in the 3.15 Newmarket. The Godolphin horses all seem to need a run at present, so for that reason and others I'll be happy just to watch it today.

Hi Dubai is one to leave today as there are horses with form in higher class races in the field.

The 1000 has ability/form as Soviet Song/Six Perfections and merit/form Six Perfections/Soviet Song. An inspection of the form shows that whilst Soviet Song won a better class of race the opposition was not as good as the opposition that Six Perfections beat in class 876. SP has had a recent run over 7f beating fair opposition, in fact one has gone on to win a group 3 over 9f since.

Personally I favour Six Perfections, but the sensible thing is to make a book with both horses.

Pipedreamer,

No, looking back through my records I have NEVER backed a horse at Brighton! Looking at the races I backed in yesterday, I have to admit I am a little surprised no one seems to have found the winner at Haydock. The race at Newmarket may not have been everyone's cup of tea. I had to take two stabs at it.

Guest,

Are you saying that every horse above Son Of Love (in the ability ratings) is out of form? There is only one way SOL can come into the reckoning your way, I always think taking collateral is a little dangerous.

I agree about Six Perfections being the likely winner, but would not bet at the price. I would want at least double the price on offer. So nothing for me today.

I will just watch the football. Wish I thought Leeds were capable of beating Arsenal, but you never know! If they can the title goes to the rightful, and best team.

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

Iºve spent along time on the 79 Leger this past several days. My rough notes are back at my apartment but from memory I have all the horses rated above SOL as out of form.

** I wasnºt aware of SOL ability rating until Guest provided that info ( thanks Guest ) **

Could I ask, Fire Up The Band looked one of your types yesterday ?


All,

Newmarketºs first race today. Like Fulham I agree there were many questions in this race today however the question of Caprichioºs in formness is of interest.

He in my opinion was clearly not busy on his seasonal debut and his run had to be ignored ( illusion of form ). With regards to todays bigger prize I would have to say he was a form horse and without access to todays ability ratings, if top he would have to be the class/form horse but with other in my opinion in form horses namely Attache and The Tatling in the race it would have been one to leave.


FULHAM,

I plan to make a visit to the Newspaper Library sometime in June 03. At your conveneince would you be able to again provide the opening times etc,


Todays Guineas,

Boring yes but Six Perfections os the one but could she have a coffin box draw ?

Good luck,

Determined,

Could she have a coffin box draw indeed? With the woeful record of favourites and previous Group 1 winners in this race over the last decade one wonders if she can overcome all odds to win. Like Mtoto I'd want a lot more than 2/1 to tempt me.

Oldtimer

Determined

If you ring 020 7412 7353 there is a recorded message which tells you about access arrangements and opening times.

Guest
You don't half have some rough luck,With some of thoughts you put on this thread.I don't think anybody could back Russian rythmn logically,Good form and all that but not when others have proven ability.

Russian rhythm
Fav lto
And shortist price in Lto Betting
I though you would have liked that one

Determined,

225 Soleil Noir.... out of form? beaten 11 lengths (in race distance didn't suit) race before had won a Group 1 (460) OVER THIS DISTANCE
127 Milford .....3rd in a Group 2 (well beaten) won a Group 2, out of form?
116 Lake City ...out of form
112 Niniski ..... won a Group 2 (194) how is he out of form?
95 Imperial Fling .....won a Group? out of form?
93 Reprocolour ......3rd in a Group 1, won a Group 3, out of form?
86 Scorpio .... won a (105) so in form
84 Cracaval .....won a (71) so in form (whether form is good enough different matter)
49 Son Of Love...4th in a Group 2, beaten 3.8 lengths. in form?
44 Noelino... out of form.

With c/form we have been shown being in form is the first requirement, whether or not the horse has PROVEN form in relation to the race appears to be optional. I agree finding the c/form horse can be difficult, but in this case I find it VERY hard to make SOL the c/form horse. If you are not prepared to forgive Soleil Noir his bad run, how can you pass over Niniski?

You are correct about the selection from Newmarket. I do hope the weather picks up for you. It must be disappointing to go so far, just to sit in front of a computer!

Be Lucky

Boozer
Up until today a sprinter,Where have you got this lto shortest in the betting from,It means nowt to me.

Just a couple of points. IMO Six Perfections would have been closer without the interference, but probably still wouldn't have beaten the very good winner.

The winner is a timely reminder on several fronts. Firstly, don't take trainers comments as gospel before studying the form objectively. I must confess I gave the winner scant consideration due to the poor reports from the stable. However, how many saw Russian Rhythm as a good thing on it's last run at odds on? Plenty and rightly so and how many wanted to back it today?

A familiar situation?

Note also that when VDW gave his appraisal of the 2000 won by To Agori Mou, he stated he made a book based on class and merit ratings with three horses, two of which were the one two, To Agori Mou and Mattaboy.

Today saw the top rated on merit beat the 2nd rated on merit.

Guest

I assume from your comments that you use the Topspeed figures for your Time/merit rating. I use Split Second's figures, with (in this case) similar results:

On the usual ability ratings:

Soviet Song - 447
Six Perfections - 336
Russian Rhythm - 271
Presto Vento - 251

On the Split Second time/merit ratings:

Russian Rhythm - 112
Six Perfections - 112
Tante Rose - 111
L'Ancresse - 109
[Presto Vento - 106]
[Soviet Song - 106]

One of the six named (Presto Vento) was clearly "out" on the ground of form, and two others (Tante Rose and L'Ancresse) could also be eliminated on the basis that their form was relatively far inferior to that of the other three.

This left Russian Rhythm, Six Perfections and Soviet Song as the three most probable, occupying first, second and fourth places. (Just as, with Danger Over a non-runner, the first five places in the 2.10 were occupied by five of the six most probable from a class/form perspective).

In both races I personally found it impossible to proceed further, either to identify a single horse which could confidently be backed, or a book at what I would regard as realistic odds. But that doesn't detract from the fact that, day after day, VDW's approach continues to focus attention on the right horses.

Mtoto,

1979 LEGER,

Very quick as iºm waiting for a bus.

I stated yesterday that (from memory) I had all those rated above SOLÑ as out of form.

Not for the 1st time my statement was incorret therefore apologies.

The 1st point I should make is that I wanºt aware of the 3 french horses ability ratings until Guestºs post of yesterday.

Ignoring the ability ratings of those 3 I made the following evaluations,

Soleil Noir was out of form based on his last run ( whether I would have made that decision at the time I donºt know )

SOL - definately in form.

Scorpio - based on his last known run when 4th in the Irish Derby, btn 6 3/4 lgths - not qckn.

I would have to have him as in form.

Niniski - progressive and yes I did have him down as a form horse but was he in form in the context of the Leger ?????

Summary - 3 probables for me.

Thats where I am at presently.

**** Niniskiºs last winning run when beating M Lloshan in receipt of ?? lbs when one considers ML previous win at 2/9 was not as good as the form of SOL ????.


The weather on the whole picks up from mid day and is boiling.


All,

Zonargem a form horse today ????

In my opinion they have one race in mind, ie - HUNT CUP.


Fulham,

Thanks.

Bye now,

determined,

he is for me.

quote:

---

Originally posted by investor:
Boozer
Up until today a sprinter,...)

---

investor,

have a read of the 'Timeform 1000gns top 3' thread in the 'General' forum.

Imp
Russian rythmn most certainly had some decent form,But of course there are other factors to take into consideration,It's o.k being wise after the event,But when you have 2 horses that have proven ability at the distance,And R.R not been raced above 6f (irrespective of it's speed) and now stepping up to a mile,There's no way i would have backed R.R.

mISTER ED
You have mail.

Chester 2.25

Any thoughts on Weavers Pride in this.

I have a marked card and dropped a long way in class.

Not out of it on the draw.

Joint 2nd on ability

joint 2nd on consistency

Lago 'D'Orta has a skewed ability rating having won just one race at 104.

Arowson

Weaver's Pride is one of my "2yos to follow at 3" list, but I have him 4th on the ability ratings (behind Lago d'Orta, Inter Vision and Boston Lodge); well behind these three on time/merit; unproven with today's weight; and disregarding the non-form horses, not the c/f.

Given Barry Hills' skill, and penchant for Chester, that probably makes him a certainty!