I`m having problems with Mistletoe and The Bunny
Boiler because Mistletoe was being raised in class
and weight.The Bunnyboiler rated 43 on ability
with 7 horses having a better ability rating and
some of these were form horses.The Bunnyboiler
fell lto when it looked like he would win.That
could be overlooked as a one of but his jumping
hasn`t been fluent in other races.How can these
be good things?


Maggsy

determined,


by all means e-mail away wnbarnes@hotmail.com


sooner rather than later

Guest,
I decided to re-enter the thread because I did not like the phrases "Jimmy and his cronies" and "pals gone silent now". Also because, in general, you just avoid any direct question. I was keen to know how often you found a really strong bet, but you just refuse to answer. Why not? What harm can it do? If you were civil to people who ask simple questions, there wouldn't be a problem would there?

As for "Swish trying to find every winner" or words to that effect, if you had bothered to read what I have said plenty of times, IT IS AN EXPERIMENT, to teach myself when and where a bet is worth doing, in what type of race, class, etc, etc, etc. All choices are recorded on spreadsheet with full info, this is all with the hope that myself and other board members can improve their punting. Don't you think that is a good idea?

I would like you to reply to this letter, and then as long as you don't go insulting Jimmy and myself when we are not looking, I shall leave you to it, which was what I had done in the first place until you wrote your insults,
Yours
Swish

Dear Determined,
This booklet is absolutely brilliant in my opinion, and is a MUST read. John in Brazil has just read it and he agrees, and he is a very intelligent man.
By the way, have you had chance to read either of the other 2 books I suggested yet?
Cheers
Swish

Dear Barney,
We have chatted on board and in chat room, and you told me you thought speed figs were useful.
Why the sudden change of heart?
Yours
Swish

Swish,I think Guest should be complimented for all his contributions.Do you realise how many members are in this group?It appears to me that certain people are trying to goad information out of Guest.It will not and should not happen.There is no short cut.If the vdw books are read and re read,and understood,and compliment this with Guests examples,it will seem much clearer.
Guest,the only dissappointment I have,is that you descended to the level,of the goaders,but I see you have addressed this in a previous post.
Determined,keep the faith.

Pipedreamer.
I see you've entered the Brown Hole,there doesn't seem any point of return for any of you now.
Guest,isn't it becoming a little uncomfortable.
Q

hi swish

yes you are right not long ago i thought they were ok and i still think they are for simple systems.

through looking at numerous examples daily i came to find they were not accurate by a long way and in the end someones opinion. i now use the facts and not rely on other peoples opinion i find my way is more accurate.

Maggsy & Swish,

Thanks for the comments re` Systematic Betting. I`ll be sending for a copy in the near future.

Swish,

I haven`t got past the first few pages of the `Pipe` book. When I get around to reading them is anyone`s guess. I cannot keep up with this thread never mind anything else.

Speedfigures

With regards speed figures VDW from memory gave 3 methods for identifying horses to follow judged on the timefigure recorded,

a) the 2-y-o method; 70 plus on certain group one tracks

b) the 3-y-o early season method (maidens) who record a figure of 75 plus finishing 2nd or 3rd

c) 3-y-o plus who win 2 races over the season, have certain form figures at the end of the season and record a figure of 80 plus

Does anybody use these methods and if so do they prove fruitful ? Also, the stated figures were the `old` Split Second figures. Has anybody any suggestions on how the new figures compare ?

Barney,

I`ll do my best to E mail you later this evening.

Regards,

Determined

There is a further VDW method based on identifying 2yos via speed figures, set out in Chapter 6 of "Systematic Betting". That focuses on 2yos which have run not more than three times without winning, and have achieved a sf (old style) of 40 or more over at least 7f on a major track (VDW specified Ascot, Doncaster, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown and York, but my researches suggest Kempton can profitably be added to his list).

Last year about 75% of qualifiers won as 3yos, though by no means all could be backed.

This year is the first with the new style sfs, and using 98 and above produces a comparable-sized list to previous years using 40 and above.

It remains to be seen how well the list based on the new sfs will fare.

Thanks Fulham,

Regards,

Whats going on speed figures rubbish....Poor old Phil Bull must be turning in his grave.....I would not and have not bet without SFs ...you have to understand though that its a Rating based on opinion or that persons formula to reach that opinion and they all differ....you only have to compare them to see most of the time they all select different top rated for each race.
Regards......

BRICK

That’s a strange comment, you, “now use the facts and not rely on other peoples opinion”. If this was the case you will use very little of the information contained in the form book, in fact if this is the case you don’t need a form book, you only need the daily results sections from say the Sun. Most of the relevant information in the form book is subjective; in fact Official Ratings are only someone’s opinion. How a horse won, driven out, all out, easily etc, is opinion, Even if you watched every race and rated them yourself, the rating would only be an opinion, albeit your own. Starting Price’s are opinion as much as forecast prices. A few months ago, based on the questions you were asking, you knew virtually nothing about speed figures, now you are dismissing them out of hand, comments like this make me wonder if you still know nothing about them.

Jimmy

Swish - It is tiresome when people don't read what is actually said isn't it?

I think in general I have posted in a civil manner, only stooping to mild insults when provoked. Can you honestly say that Jimmy and others such as Quinelle, 3 Legs, etc have posted in a civil manner on this thread? Have a re-read of some of the posts before you answer that though. While your at it, make sure you read carefully the post by Three Legs on March 11th at 9.20 - "Post a couple of Pre-Race winners, and I`m gone." and his post the following day mentioning giving a couple of pre race winners. I think the problem for these guys is the popularity of this thread.

Your questions regarding bet frequency, strike rate and average sp are actually akin to asking someone how much their salary is. I don't see why you find my betting accounts so interesting, seeing as you tell others publicly that I don't have a clue about VDW. Finally, the point I was making about your daily lists of horses is that I don't see the use for others in you mentioning all your considerations in every race run. The best way to improve your strike rate is to analyse past results and understand why certain things happen, often in a seemingly illogical manner. That's my view anyway.

Speed Figures - I agree that speed figures are useful for several purposes including judging fitness and yet another way to judge levels of ability. Improved speed ratings can help to identify horses coming to the boil, but all the other factors have to be checked also. Attaining a good speed rating does indicate good horses, but low speed figures do not automatically mean a poor animal. All my bets last week were found without using speed figures. There are other methods I use that do use speed figures as part of the process.

Statajack - my email is Guestmail00@yahoo.co.uk. I'd be glad to hear from you.

Jimmy!
You ARE a star!

Pipedreamer,
Which are these other books VDW wrote then. As far as I know there is only Systematic Betting.
As for goading Guest to find out more information, what a load of rubbish. All I have ever asked are simple questions which can mostly be answered with yes or no answers.
I can pick my own winners, thank you very much. Are you sure it is not you goading me to find out how I have picked 66% winners with my "certs" and a 100% profit, or can you do better. If you can just say so,
Yours
Swish

Guest,
I asked you about strike rate, frequency of bets etc to try to make a descion whether it is really worth waiting for one that is absolutely nailed on to come along or whether it is better to do more bets that aren't as strong but get faster turnover, although not at as higher a strike rate. It was a genuine question.
I have no idea how much you bet on a horse and I certainly AM NOT asking you that. Blimey, give me a bit of credit.

With regard to the other point I am looking at it both ways. In other words, I am saying what I might have picked with the knowledge I know so far PLUS, because they are all recorded, I can then analyse the races after the event also to see, if possible where I went wrong. I have already identified quite a lot where I should have picked the winner. Although there are also plenty where I cannot figure why my choice was the wrong choice,
I hope that paints a clearer picture for you.

As for the other chaps you mention. What they say is nothing to do with me, but, in my opinion, they say what they say because you appear to avoid direct questions and "appear" to claim things without any proof.
As someone else said, you would be extremely sceptical if you met a complete stranger and he suddenly claimed he could get this winner and that winner without any proof.
In fact, the truth is you would not believe him for one iota,
people desire proof of claims, that is the way of the world and how (most) human beings think,
Yours Sincerely
Swish

I see you’re still taking my name in vain.
In an attempt to bring this childishness to an end let me try and explain things from my point of view.
I have this view that the human race is inherently altruistic and honest, the reason for this belief is based on past experience. Picture if you will the scene, it is a cold wet miserable night, you are driving along a city road looking for a street, you know it’s in the area but you are not sure where, you see a group of people standing in a shop doorway, sheltering from the rain, waiting for a bus. You pull over, reach across the passenger seat, open the window and from your warm comfortable car ask for directions. Usually someone will leave the shelter of the doorway, cross the pavement and stand in the pouring rain to give you directions. They have no hope of gain but they will help anyway. Such is the nature of people. Now imagine a different scene, you are involved in a serious car accident and as you lie in a pool of blood you hear someone in the crowd say they are a doctor and in their opinion you are unlikely to make it, when someone asks the doctor why they don’t help he replies. I spent years studying to attain my knowledge, why should I give it away? I know which view of humanity I prefer and it’s not the second. It is likely that in the second scenario the voice in the crowd did not belong to a doctor but to someone who liked to pretend he was a doctor as a means of boosting his ego. As Swish says “that is the way of the world and how (most) human beings think”. So guest as an outsider just what do you think of the human race?

jimmy,

your welcome

like i said only trying to help my way!!

and thanks for that your right,five months ago i had never heard of a sf my capacity to gain a usefull knowledge in such a short time i hope will encourage more to knuckle down and put in the hard work.

and while i'm at it your right about official rating too they are rubbish.

anyway enough waffle.

[This message was edited by Barney on March 18, 2002 at 05:59 AM.]

Good morning,

Did you get my `waffled` E mail ?

Regards,

not yet mate