Guest ,Mtoto
Are you saying that HW is better over 10F and
do you think HW would HS over 10F.I agree that
everything has to be related to class and i think
that ability is amore important factor than
a horse being able to stay the distance.My research would suggest that a previous distance
winner doesn`t have much advantage over a horse
that has never won at the distance.



regards



Maggsy



Maggsy

Determined/Barney

Thanks again for your replies - I will continue to look and learn and participate wherever I can.

Cheers

Barney,
I'm not sure what you mean by the perfect picture exactly but when a horse like Noverre fails as in the lockinge, if the initial process shows a flaw there will probably be other negatives too. You just dont get G1 winners not in the most consistent for whatever reason (OK someone will probably find a few but you know what I mean). Contrast that with High Chaparral (top 3 cons, top 4 ability, 2 x ratings support) where form study confirmed things. Contrast this with Hawk Wing (failed on SF ratings that VDW uses as a measure of 3YOs). Then, looking at the form we have the extra questions raised in regard of HW re distance and going. The only question re HC was whether he would act at Epsom, a problem faced by all the others (except possibly Bandari who had won at a similar course) so not really a negative. As there is a replica of the turn built at Ballydoyle even that slight doubt would be unlikely to be a problem. For lower class races the same principle applies where doubts like those re Rifle Brigade after passing the initial method are relative to the greater doubts about its opponents.
It took a long time and a lot of checking losing bets before I came to these conclusions but once learned, not forgotten. I get almost as much satisfaction at seeing the Noverre's overturned after not going in as I do the winners.

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Determined - can I put forward my reading of the Kelburne race?

Lets look at the combatants in finishing order with Kelburne last.

Sandown 8f class 152

Broadway Score - simply not in form and not in form at this class level and its the wrong distance.

Muchea - in form but not at this class level and its the wrong distance.

Putra Pekan - Is this in form? Determined I agree with you about its last run. Add to that it is carrying 9lbs more. I'll come back to PPs last run.

Calcutta - in form but carrying an extra 5lbs compared to LTO.

My Lucy Locket - In form but not at this class level.

Crystal Castle - again in form but not at this class level.

Summer View - not in form.

Lord Jim - not in form.

So that leaves Calcutta, Putra Pekan and Kelburne.

Lets look at PP's last race first in finishing order.

Haydock 8f class 65

Putra Pekan - In form, right distance, right going and carrying 6lbs less than last run.

Muchea - In form at this class level but its the wrong distance.

Down to the woods - not in form at this class level.

Zilch - not in form.

Lady Boxer - not in form and the wrong distance.

This was an easy win for PP, and some wise souls got it at 5/4, but it only won by 2L because it threw away its advantage by racing freely early on. Had there been a suitable opponent PP would have lost 4/7 Fav or no. Its actually not in form because of its style of racing even though it won!

Finally Kelburne at Sandown - its in form, at the right distance and with the right going. Add to that its carrying 3lb less than LTO having been a beaten 9/4f in a class 95 race.

So lets look at the last 2 races.

Newmarket 10f K wins by 1L carrying a massive 21lbs less than LTO. 10f is the edge of this horses envelope, to win it needs massive assistance which it got by carrying so little weight.

York 10f K comes 4th carrying 10lb more than LTO but ran as well as can be expected.

So now K, with 3lbs less, is actually competing against an out of form PP who is carrying 9lbs more weight and could be predicted to throw the race way by its style of racing and Calcutta who also has more weight (5lbs).

Kelburne is effectively racing alone. Also Broadway Score and Muchea have done well to finish close.

Thats my view anyway.

All the best
Larry (hedgehog)

Guest,
Thank you for replying to my post ref Zamandra/Stray Shot etc.
I have all the old form books dating right back to the beginning and so have been evaluating many of the past examples for a long time now. In fact virtually all my spare time for racing I have devoted to this task and have given up analysis of virtually all of modern day races until I can sort out some of VDW's methods, as the way I see it, is without knowing all there is to know on the past examples I have no chance with todays.
I have done the in-depth form study on these horses and you are right Sunset Cristo was coming out of a class 75 race up to a class 96 carrying 10lb more than LTO ( your memory certainly serves you well). I understand what you mean regarding higher class such as SB and AC.
But could you nudge me in the right direction of the some other factors I should take into account on my form study of these examples. I know how they ran in the last two furlong the lengths beaten by and what by !
Also regarding Little Owl how much importance should be attached to Lesley Ann !!
If you do not wish to post please feel free to e-mail me I'd be happy for any advice.
Mimas80@hotmail.com
Cheers Mimas.

Barney

I have been looking again today at Kings Ride in the light of your posting.I think your right about a similarity with Prominent King.I really need to concentrate a bit harder I think as I missed the signs from the Warwick run and subsequent events.I was wondering if its Kempton run was of equal importance? I have found in other walks of life that I need to see or do things over and over again before it gets locked into my thick skull.

Mac

A condensed versions fine.You are a gent.My address is breamagoogle@aol.com

hi larry,

good evaluation that

hi bream

re kempton its almost talk the talk that one.in that situation the horses can go either way. Three year olds are developing all the time and like most kids they have spurts of development and growth its really down to interpretation.at kempton it showed it was not yet ready to answer the questions asked,and judging by the market it wasnt expected (but it was there). at warwick it walked the walk and the trainer placed it to develop further.

hi guest

thank you again for more pointers, i hope that in some way you are getting in return some of the pleasure that you are giving me and others.

statajack

thanks for your reply and ive put my temperament hat back on this week untill i get where i want to be.

sometimes i think that ive learned a bit and then realise this is the first flat year ive tried, i was only just getting the hang of the jumps and it was over all too soon.as will be the flat no doubt.

still its only year one of five and one day ................

Just as a general reply to some questions raised on thread page 122, I would say one or two things mentioned within hold some valuable clues as to some of the VDW answers.

As stated before, it is difficult for me to be too specific about certain factors, but it seems some others are now beginning to shed some light where there was once darkness.

Hedgehog,

I very much like your last post re` Kelburne. I am struggling a little for time just now but will come back to you once I finalise my evaluation of that race.

Guest,

Several of Guest`s recent posts have really got my brain cells working overtime. I`m convinced there are some major pointers in there if I can get my head around them.

Cheers,

Determined,

I'll be interested to see your thoughts on this, as it would seem to me to be between Bali Royal and Rudi's Pet, with possibly Elvington Boy. Also think the 5.00 has possibilities with Brevity, Grey Cossack and Proud Boast having best speed figures this season.

Cheers

Oldtimer

next tuesday

in the st james palace stakes both hawkwing and high chapperal are entered in the race at one mile.



will the outcome be the same???

or will it be rock of gibraltar??

OLDTIMER – 2.10 YORK.

Only 6 points covers all 10 runners on the Postmark ratings which suggests a very difficult race to call. I notice you narrow the race down to 3 probables and I totally agree with the 3 you have named.

I note that Spotlight in the Post naps Eastern Trumpter, the winner of the race last year. The opposition last year hardly compares with the 3 in form horses he faces tomorrow and for me whilst hinting at a return to form at Ripon last weekend the opposition again doesn`t compare. Should the 3 probables not be at the races tomorrow then he is the likely winner but given that all horses “run on their merits all the time” he`ll be outclassed.

Looking at the 3 probables with my novice VDW hat on Rudi`s Pet is the class/form horse with Bali Royal 2nd.

Looking at the form of all 3 I cannot split BR and EB and they should finish upsides. Rudi`s Pet has finished behind BR twice already this season however his last run at Epsom from 5lbs out of the hcap from what was considered the worst draw was a `class` performance and he is no doubt now at the top of his game. That said he has to carry 21 lbs more actual weight tomorrow which has to be a major concern.

RP has carried 9-08 to victory in very good class in the past but 10-00 is a different kettle of fish.

Summary – RP is the one I like most but the extra weight will see me leave the race alone. Some may wish to back the 3 probables in combination f/c`s but that’s not for me.

Cheers,

hi oldtimer

in my opinion the winner has got to come from those three.there are lots of seemingly complex form lines between the three and i wonder if a few of them are getting ready to be bumped back up in class.If they are all ridden to win then rudis pet will beat elvington boy again.

there will be easier races than this though today

maid to perfection looks to have some similarities with roushayd but its difficult to see if it achieved anything in the pipe opener and may still need this run.

contract and morpheus are the others worth considering and providing that morpheus handles the ground he will be going on to better things.

sorry but i have made a typographical error in the above race it should read Bali royal will beat elvington boy again.


i know no ones interested but it will put my mind to rest

whilst reading the RP this morning its dissapointing to see so called form "experts" nicking ideas from this thread.

Determined/Barney

Thanks for your thoughts, I've already posted mine. Not a race to bet in with any certainty by any means unless you took all three. I think Turtle Valley and Looking For Love at Chepstow look my best bets.

Good luck

Oldtimer

Barney,
I dont get the RP, what's all that about?
regards,