I’ll pass some comment on the races that I’ve looked at and feel are worthy of mention. Noverre is the class act in the principal at Newbury and at odds against it’s a bet for me. Lee makes some valid points with regards to the ground and I wouldn’t back this horse today if the rain came down despite the comments in the post.

In the 2.45 High Pitched will come on from his seasonal debut and should win this race on his form, however, like Determined has noted there is a bit of an unknown quantity in Arctic Owl, and on previous flat form poses a threat. First Ballet I think he’ll be outclassed today. It’s not a race though for me to get involved in.

In the 3.25 at Bangor I have Lord North top rated and I will be taking him to beat Billy Nomaite.

Charlie.

r.e high pitched/arctic owl,i remember the last time h.p ran i said to watch out when dropped in class,no problem there i honestly think cecil has got something else in mind,i agree with you in principal,but not for me...time and time again the second string wins i agree noverre has all the attributes,but so did hawk wing,obviously summoner is here as pacemaker,but is a very good horse in his own right,outside the first six i know and a reversal looks out of the question,but i could,nt fully eliminate him...conclusion no bet

well done again, determined you took the view to forgive high pitched his last run in the blinds & in the higher class, judging by his actions pre-race was easy to see why they had considered this route for him but he was good as gold during the race nice pointer from chaz too.
mac.

well done,a very good weeks work,i,m slowly coming to the conclusion that to achieve the s/r vdw quoted,more races must be dutched,i let a few go by last week in favour of waiting for single opportunities.what are your views on this.i can fully understand the support for noverre in a lot of aspects but winning only one from eight over this distance must surely be a big negative.summoners fate was highlighted on page 18 of r.p that article has really p....d me off.

Noverre's record over a mile going into today's race read 1/8. Best win on a straight track was a 6f G3. Consistency figure of 11 (not in the first three). All sound requirements for a bet at odds on in a G1 over a mile on a straight track. Sorry for pointing out the obvious but its all there to be seen beforehand if you look closely enough.
regards,

I agree with all you say, Statajack. They are essentially consequentials of the fundamental problem with the horse. Although he runs on strongly under pressure, he simply lacks the ability to quicken that one looks for in a truly top miler.



Determined

Well done with the 2.45. And others won't necessarily know that you also backed Barathea Blazer at 8s this morning, so you have hit a real purple patch over the last few days. Long may it last.

Investor,

I`ve concentrated on hcaps with only average success over many years and given that such races can be very difficult I have regularly backed 2-3 in a race if the price allows.

Where I have gone wrong is my inconsistency in the way I`ve split my stakes and I`m still trying to find the right balance.

So I suppose I`ve been `dutching` for years. That said, backing 2 horses on the lines of HP and AO today is new to me, ie - I`m not an odds on player however I firmly believe using the VDW methods on non hcap races that over a peroid of time there will be many instances when a false favourite exists and 2 probables can be taken to make a reasonable profit.

Chaz,

Well done with your Bangor winner and I note you had a strong view on High Pitched.

All,

Thanks for the congratulations on what has been a fruitful week for me. Nothing can be taken for granted in this game and I`m already looking for the next Invincible Spirit. Perhaps it will be Smart Predator at Epsom.

Cheers,

john

ive had lots from this pool and a loser doesn't bother me anymore, my only other bet today was aker wood, oh hum!!!


well done everyone on your winners.

Just to remind you all,
Last run means nowt,
Swish

Morning mate,

Hard lines with Aker Wood.

Re` Shagraan - no matter how good we become at reading form there`ll always be instances where opinion`s differ.

Swish,

Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Nothing in this game is black and white.
Every race has a different problem to solve.

Cheers,

correct
correct
correct

keep up the good work

Statajack

Noverre is a dual group 1 winner over a mile, Goodwood & Longchamp.

It's best run on a straight track was winning the Group 2 Champagne stakes at Doncaster.

Not sure it could be crabbed by class or type of track with this form.

cheers
EC

Determined, and all,

Credit where credit is due. High Pitched hacked up and those who were on will have had the grin that I have when I’m on to a good thing such as he turned out to be; so well done. For me yesterday was one of those days. Lady luck was around as Lord North had the beating of Billy Nomaite in the book which proved correct, however Contes turned out to be unlucky at the last, but many horses fail to stand up when it matters, and I don’t make excuses when a selection of mine go arse over tit at the last; I just accept it. Noverre never went odds against and so I never got involved, even so it is still my opinion that he was the class act but would have liked a bit more pace. EC has cleared up a couple of points that have been put up as a case against Noverre, and although disqualified at Longchamp, he still crossed the line 1st. It’s a good example of just how far you need to delve when assessing a horse’s form so not to make mistakes. We all make them though, but as long as we can learn by them then that’s fine. I also backed both Freya’s Dream and Mr Wenslydale in the 2.40 at Thirsk for a nice profit. I had a very strong case for Freya’s Dream but in the end gave in and backed the 2 of them.

It is my opinion that multiple betting is what contributed heavily to VDW’s 80% strike rate and it’s been talked about only a little on this thread. Indeed when one contributor mentioned it some time ago he was shot down in flames and was never heard from again. It’s worth thinking about though. Like I’ve said previously, to achieve a consistent 80% strike rate at odds against backing singles only is, dare I say it, not possible.

The problem I had when I woke up to this fact was that I found it more difficult to make a case for a single selection and began to find myself still backing more than one in a race when I’d made a firm case for just one, a bit like yesterday. Freya’s Dream was probably strong enough for me to have bet on her own but for a couple of reasons I didn’t. It’s another balancing act that needs to be done as well as balancing class and form, odds, turnover and strike rate, but it is my opinion that Multiple betting featured far more in VDW’s betting than most think.

i think the guy you mention went to set up a tipping line or news letter service.He left because he wasn't allowed to advertise on this board.

Barney,

Forgive me then - he deserved to dissapear! I haven't read every post in detail, I skipped the ones where mud slinging was taking place etc.

EC
You are quite right in that Noverre's best performance on a straight track was in a 7f G2, (albeit as a 2YO) so I hold my hands up to that one. The 1/8 stat came from Raceform so I plead not guilty on this one. The Longchamp win was disqualified after a positive test for a banned substance.Even allowing for that "win", it still wouldnt have been enough to consider a bet, especially as the horse was not in the first 3 for consistency.
Chas is quite right when he says the form really needs to be delved into deeply and so in the case of Noverre how many negatives would one be prepared to forgive to bet on him, especially at odds on?
I would suspect it was more the lack of tangible opposition than anything else in a lot of people's minds that led to his odds being so short but I also note there was a move for Keltos in the betting during the day so perhaps myself and Fulham weren't the only ones who thought Noverre didn't pass muster in yesterday's race?
regards

Statajack

If Noverre was a lower class horse I would think a bit of fiddling was going on.

form when favourite over 1 mile
(0%) 22427

It's not a favourite of mine I must admit and your view re the opposition was correct I think. One to take on again if favourite, if not favourite I wonder if it will win.

cheers
ec

Statajack/EC,

On the evidence of yesterday’s race it is obvious that Noverre is not firing on all cylinders in group 1 company at the moment, and hasn’t really done so since winning the CLS stakes last year. He was a gutsy performer as a 2yo and showed much promise. After the Breeders Cup Juvenile he switched stables and since then hasn’t really earned his corn even though finishing in the frame on most of his races. It’s hard to know whether it’s a change in training that has sent him backwards or perhaps he’s grown up in to a bit of a mule? He was never a certainty yesterday for some of the reasons that have been put forward but for me the form was there enough to go in at a fair price. Statajack, I also think you are correct with your view regarding the opposition and that was for me the main reason to get amongst the race if at the right price, but not odds-on, for me at least. I really did think he’d win and even though I lost no money on it I was disappointed to see him lose. He did make me laugh though when he had a nibble at Keltos when he passed him in the final furlong, as if to say “OI, where do ya think your goin? GET BACK”. A bit of a character! Or is he getting stubborn in his older age?

Re Noverre

You can't ignore his French win (banned substance or not), but it is interesting that he failed to confirm the form next time at Ascot and later turned the tables back again at Goodwood. It was disappointing that he couldn't later beat his much inferior stablemate when favourite and yesterdays race showed him unable to deliver again when a short priced runner.

Personally I just take it as one of those things, though I concede there were some doubts, but it was difficult to find much logic before the race in seeing Keltos as likely to finish in front of Noverre after finishing behind the latter on a number of occassions. Noverre was quite hard raced in his 2yo days, but showed good form as a 3yo. Keltos is obviously now improving fast, though beating Cornelius twice was hardly solid evidence.

Noverre had raced in top group1 company, better than yesterdays rivals, so the consistency part needed a little extra consideration on that front.