thanks you,ve confirmed my thoughts,there is obvious conflict i,ll be interested in the outcome.

i.ve given the 3.50 a good look and can,t really see anything to upset them two,good luck if you play.

The Lockinge will take centre stage tomorrow but for me the 2.45 looks a very interesting event.

Cheers,

whats the going now?? at newbury

I wish I knew. No doubt C4 will let us know at 9.00am.

There must be a cracking opportunity in the 2.45 Newbury today ?

Any thoughts,

Cheers for now,

215n

more conflict to sort out, seem's that its the name of the game.

first six in betting

epicenter
shagraan
fashionable man
barry island
dune
esteemed master

NUMERICALLY i think that the class form horses are fashionable man and second is dune.

there are others with a high class rating outside these, tertullian 64 and river rheine 43.

there is a form horse- our imperial bay but the form is not good enough and it can be discounted.

now on inspection of the form banal or not

epicenter - enterd in a good mile race in sept,not fancied(no wonder on previous form), dropped first time out this year to the right leval- no chance.

shagraan - has indicated that there is some potential for improvement at ripon and then was held next time in higher class ON THIS COURSE- no chance.

fashionable man - consistent when upped in grade, slight dip when upped with more weight - form not inspiring.

barry island - the basic form figures show that its out of form, however the races were quite competative and in the last race he showed some slight improvementbut it was hard for him.

dune - ran his best race so far last time out and over further than today.

esteemed master - entered in a good race last time where the tight track should have been to his advantage but he may have been overburdened.

of the other two not in the betting

tertullian - showed form in a moderate race, best performance last time out on good track.

river rhiene - showed some good form in a very poor race which he was expected to win. first time out this year upped in grade and distance where obviously not fit for the race.


in conclusion coflict,conflict,conflict????

dune looks the likely winner to me and at forcast odds of 8/1 i will have a dabble.

A good evaluation and good luck if you dabble.
Personally I would not be ruling out the top 2 weighted horses so quickly.

More on the 2.45, the race I have a strong view on later.

The 3.55 looks a minefield but I`m confident using an element of VDW that the probable winner is one of 2 and I`ll be at Coral`s for 10.00am to get the prices.

More later,

It`s rained all morning here in S****horpe and I`ve evaluated Newbury on the basis it was going to be on the soft side and typically the rain bypasses `N` to leave good to firm ground.

Time to re-think.

Cheers,

They have reported only 1mm of rain in the last 24 hours and the going is officially Good to Firm.

Thanks Lee.

The Lockinge looks to have a clear cut VDW selection but not my price.

Any comments ?

Cheers,

thanks for the goig info guys

determined i think atavus is very silly price when in comparisson to his real chance.

Francome certainly likes Atavus.

Not a race to play in for me.

I`m waiting for No Excuse Needed to run over 10 furlongs on top of the ground.

Determined,

It will be no surprise to see Noverre in the winners enclosure today having shown he was back to form when 2nd in the Dubai Duty Free. Remember that VDW was always willing to take odds on and gave a number of examples that are proof of this. These examples however all have one thing in common in that everything goes their way. Noverre does have a slight negative but I wouldn’t blame anyone if they overlooked it.

determined

in the form that is there in the book


lee

hes been beaten a couple of times when a good thing.I think that they sometimes give him to much to do, he must show some turn of foot at home.

Barney,

You are correct, he has been beaten the last 4 times that he was favourite which is a negative. He’s reversed the form on firmer ground immediately with Black Minnaloushe. The 2 subsequent times he was beaten favourite was on soft/good – soft ground that only leaves the high class Breeders Cup mile where he was beaten favourite on firm ground.

The point regarding foreign prizemoney is a valid one though it goes into much the same bag as the valuable auction or conditions races over here in that the opposition in the race has to be weighed up carefully. It is noticeable that Irish prizemoney is generally better than here in certain types of events and generally the form reflects this, contrary to what many think otherwise.

Today Noverre rates a good thing via VDWs methods.

How much of a GOOD THING ?

Both Lee and Guest (nice to hear from you - are you missing us ? ) confirm my thoughts that Noverre looks good by VDW methodology.

Best of luck to those prepared to take the odds availible.

Cheers,

Is First Ballot first or second on class/form ?

Either way, in my opinion he is a false favourite and a vunerable.

I firmly believe he`ll be beaten and for me he makes the market.

I`ll be dutching Arctic Owl and High Pitched provided the first couple of races confirm the ground is not too fast.

Any comments would be welcome whether before or afte racing,

Cheers,

determined the 2.45 throws up more questions than answers for me , do wonder why the blinkers went on high pitched l.t.o. considering his record last season, arctic owl would carry them home if on song but 8yrs old & never won at trip either, dawari lightly raced & unexposed somewhat, stoute has him entered in the hardwicke at ascot & he`s not one to overface his horses is he?, first ballots performance here may determine where elswoth goes with him but as things stand he has to prove himself at this level, warrsan if he can turn the tables on fb well it would make a mockery of any method being 16lbs worse of but thats his trainers way, love everlasting had surely gone for the season when up against hp at newmarket last back - end so would expect a better run from that one , too much conflict then & a race we could possibly learn more from with a view to the future rather than getting involved , thats my view anyway.

p.s will be keeping a close eye on shagraan today with a view to the future as he`s one of my 3yr olds to follow cant bet him today but the jockey booking catches the eye.
mac.

[This message was edited by mactheknife on May 18, 2002 at 01:24 PM.]