Barney & determined

At the moment I've got evening access to a PC (housesitting) and I've had a chance to assess this race this evening.

For what it's worth there's another negative with V and that's the draw. Goodwood over 7f is one of the country's more biased draws and horses drawn high have a huge advantage. Drawn 11 MB makes some appeal but for me there's too much conflict to bet plus she's a filly. Rafferty ran a good race to win from a poor draw at Chester last time out with a few of these behind him but is once again drawn poorly today.

Although I'm trying to avoid NH theres a horse at Uttoxeter in the 19:50 tomorrow that looks a tempting proposition, particularly if the price on the RP site is in the right ballpark.

Regards

Carlos

numerically kootenay is a good thing

with a negative about the distance, but on a class basis should be able to account for these.


any thoughts before work??

I`m late for work and unforunately I haven`t been able to finalise any evaluations therefore no firm conclusions drawn.

Very quickly though,

Kooteney`s race - the Gosden filly had a winning opportunity this weekend but comes here instead.

Vanderlin`s race - Hughes rides MB for the first time from a plum draw. I expect him to try to dictate from the front and he could steel it. That said I still like `V` but not on easy going.

Must go,

is there more here for second place???

Carlos

Carlos

Thanks for that - although dont blame me if you turn the corner and bang into a wall !

As I say it sometimes pays to think like a bookmaker which races would you like to take money on and which you wouldnt - and the latter races (if of suitable quality etc) are the ones to analyse. Admittedly the former if solved probably give greater satisfaction.....but overall which is likely to give greater profitability?

Hope it continues to go well

As I mentioned last night I've had a look at this race and I can't really see past Gumley Gale. For what it's worth I normally avoid Handicap Hurdles due to a stinking record but I find that the odd one or two stand out and for me this is one. I think that the only 'dangers' will be Nickel Sun on it's handicap debut and perhaps Wave Rock, but as far as I'm concerned GG has a lot in it's favour (C/F, VDW Class Drop from lto, CD winner, Top Speed plus peak speed lto, same weight as lto). The only higher VDW class horse in the race is carrying top weight and doesn't appear to be in form. The only thing to look for is the going and if it's Good (not GF) I'll definitely be taking an interest.

Regards

Carlos

Carlos

I came to pretty much the same conclusion about Gumley Gale. It's progreesive, moving on from a decent second behind Scots Grey at Ascot to win in class 104. The only one that gets close in terms of class/form is probably Loop The Loup, who's lightly raced. The rest have a fair bit to find.

Among other horses that caught my eye as VDW material was Kootenay, already mentioned on here, who looks a class act compared to the others. It would need a big improver from the lightly raced runners.

Antonio Canova(given a run) looks a cut above the rest in the 2.00 at Goodwood. His form is in better events than this, he's fairly lightly raced for a 6yo, and won first time out last year. Marsad's run last time suggests a danger but he went off the boil after winning the same race at Newmarket last year, and is plenty high enough in the ratings for an 8yo. Seignosse is proven at this level, but I favour A.C.'s higher class form.

Dream Magic looks best on class in the 5.20. Well enough drawn here, he was 4th in a competitive class 81 at Ascot last time. Behind Yorker(9th) when 14th at Kempton previously, but that was over 10f and his best runs are over 1m.Should have a strong gallop to suit, and if he runs to his form then looks a sound selection.

Rob

Rob

Thanks for the confirmation, as a final plus the going at Uttoxeter looks like been Good, Good to Firm in places so everything looks to be in GG's favour. I also agree with your thinking re Kootenay but following bitter experience I refuse to get involved with fillies until late summer and into Autumn. Regarding the 2:00 at Goodwood the biggest negative for me regarding AC is that Pricewise has tipped it making value hard to come by. I think he's a pretty good tipster, it's just that his following is large. I haven't looked at the last at Goodwood so I think it'll just be Gumley Gale for me this evening.

Regards

Carlos

just goes to show statajack is right to say

NO NEGATIVES.(numerically)

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Has anyone read the Silver Lining? Can I have some feedback? What is it like in comparison to say the Golden Years or Systematic Betting? Is it worth the purchase price?

Thanks for any help in advance.
All the best
hedgehog

Hedgehog
No.A waste of money,stick with what you have.

Hedgehog,
Have to agree with pipedreamer, at the price that is charged it is not really worth it. There is no real new material from a VDW perspective just views from how others have interpreted how they see VDW methods. I am certainly not knocking them as some have certainly put to good effect there methods and how they apply them.
Cheers Mimas.

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Pipedreamer, Mimas - Thanks for the prompt replies. Thats saved me £32!

All the best
hedgehog

hi everybody


gone quiet again IS EVERYONE COUNTING THEIR MONEY ?????YUM YUM YUM

Hopefully the good quality weekend racing will put some life back into the thread.

I`ve just had a quick look at the dec`s and there would appear to be several favourites with winning chances.

However, the weather f/c is awful and I`d like to know where the stalls are going to be at Nkt` and Hay`.

I have every intension of nailing a few to the floor this weekend and hopefully by 12.00pm tomorrow I`ll have something to add.

Cheers,

hi determined

i thought you had gone on holiday or something

i will have a good look as well tomorrow as i'm not golfing untill 12.

see you then.

hi gents,
Had first bet from 3yr olds to follow via systematic betting this week DOLORES even money available, although think 21 winners from the 80 horses listed pre-season so far she was the first wager this year, working to the new s/f of 90 as opposed to the old 40 mark using the new r/f figures, dont have anyone to learn from privately so that was the figure set rightly or wrongly at the start of the season.

It is difficult for a newcomer to the methods to let the winners pass & here is the full list of horses that have won so far but no bet, if have missed out when should have moved in then please tell, & sure ive missed some others as still looking into other matters when should be concentrating on this, will give them alphabetically hope haven`t missed any.

CHARLEY BATES.
COZY MARIA.
DOLORES.
FRANKIES DREAM.
GOLDEN SPECTRUM.
GOBLET OF FIRE.
GAMUT.
HANDA ISLAND.
ISLINGTON.
LUDYMOSA.
LISHTAR.
MOON BALLAD.
MONTURANI.
MELLOW PARK.
NYSAEN.
OLD CALIFORNIA.
PLAYAPART.
SHAGRAAN.
UNSHAKEABLE.
ZAAJEL.
ZENDA.

hopefully on the right lines, feel systematic betting has helped a lot & would recommend that booklet to those new to vdw if they are unsure of which one to go for initially.
mac.

[This message was edited by mactheknife on May 24, 2002 at 10:48 PM.]

hi mac


off the top of my head islington and old california were on my list and were bets

others have been king of happiness,rock of gibrolter, queens logic,coshocton(was on my list but to many others from the list in same race),kaiteur,snowfire,fight your cornerdubi destination (again no bet)protectress,infinate spirit.

to name a few.


lots have not been out yet

where did you get your list from????

sorry mac dumb question

theyv`e not to win at 2yrs have they not barney m8?.