I accept that I have gone against the class/form horse in both races and spending most of the morning re-reading the class/form articles yes I am going against the methodology and thereore goig against the odds.

Only 20% of the class/form horses I believe are supported by the VDW experts which as your stats on Guests class/form horses confirmed many lose.

OK there is a winner of every race but trying to find the winner of EVERY race I accept is silly and rest assured on average I only bet in approx` 200 races a season so whilst my VDW temperament isn`t ideal at present I do have some temperament as my few bets in a year should show.

Back to the class/form and the `ability` rating.
The more I think about it perhaps going against the top few in non hcap races is not a good idea.

Hcaps however have to be totally different, ie -I can regularly discount high rated ability horses in hcaps for many reasons and that wouldn`t stop me backing a horse in such a race just because there were higher `ability` rated horses.

Cheers,

Determined

I wasn't offering a criticism!

As you say, the class/form horse is often beaten, and I think there is a fair chance that neither c/f in the two races where you've had a bet will win. My fingers are crossed for you.

sorry to butt in,my opinion is nearly all the e.g given by vdw supported the c/f or c/ab horse whichever way you look at it,obviously you can have a horse with ability but is out of form,then you can look at 2 or 3 c/f without straying further for obvious reasons,wether n.hcap or hcap today there is conflict today, because other horses in the said races have form,ability when all factors line up then we strike,this is where you get your 20% and i believe that,s why statajack said there can be long waits between bets,just my opinion i hope it,s taken in the spirit it was written.

good luck with your bets today determined you mentioned the dunlop horse a while back.
mac.

For what its worth - not a lot - persian punch seems to be up at his shortest distance and may be done for toe , Interesting that Boreas or whatever is quite a large price versus the fav Indeed a number of the others are attractively priced jardines and the bin suroor one because of the demand for the favourite

Determined,

Well done with IS, it looks as if RB and Continent have had too much racing of late.

Oldtimer

If my response to you gave the impession that I had taken your earlier post a criticism than my apologies.

It wasn`t taken in any such way and never will be as although I`ve not met you, I don`t believe that is your way.

Please continue your comments and your e-mails as I value you them greatly.

Cheers,

excellent stuff mate,very well done, the form was there for i.s and he was heavily supported,maybe i was wrong not to invest there just seemed to much conflict again i could,nt back zindabad,still we all seem to be looking at the right horses again well done your hard work is at last showing dividends.cheers

thanks guys i had a great day

i was yum yum in the first.
yum yum in the second,
yum yum in the third
ignored the three runner and went to celebrate
found to much conflict in the fifth
found conflict in the last but had a bet anyway

i now love york races

i also met a van load of tax inspectING LADIES from near me and gave them a few winners THEY WANTED TO TAKE ME HOME BUT I WAS IN THE CAR

OH BUGGER

Just a quick thank you to all those who wished me luck before racing and those who offered their congratulations afterwards.

Thanks again.

I accept going against the c/f horses on the whole may not be wise but on some occasions I have a strong view on a particular race and in the short term I will back my opinion with an investment.

In time it may prove that `my opinion` cannot compete with the c/f horse(s) at which point temperament must be the order of the day.

Barney,

Well done today,

Cheers,

DETERMINED YOU WERE RIGHT TO BACK THOSES HORSES

the class form horses didnt have much going for them.well done your temperament is serving you well, you will get the easy ones as well!!!

hi guest

Hello,

I only joined the board a couple of weeks ago and it’s taken me all that time to read through this excellent thread. It is rare to see so much talk about this topic, particularly with regards to the amount that has been openly discussed between people, who at the end of the day, don’t know each other from Adam.

In the late 80’s I got to know a few lads few lads from around the country at different race meetings, north and south, and it became apparent that some of us shared a bit of an interest in VDW, and based our selections around his methods. What was unique for us, in hindsight, was the fact that all of us were about as clued up on VDW as the next; ie. None of us really knew anything more than anyone else. But we did progress. One of us was extremely ambitious in nature and wouldn’t let the subject lie for nothing. “There was more to this than meets the eye”; those words are still ringing in my ears now! At the peak of our collective enthusiasm we used to all get together at least once every 2 months and share what we’d each discovered since we last got together. A couple lost interest and made their excuses, however, 3 of us carried on and still see each other to this day, every 2 months at least! We still get just as pissed as we did then! But we’ve moved on from the Kestrel Lager!

It has to be said that the man transformed our betting in one-way or another. But I will still say that in my experience those that are hooked in the early stages of VDW, as we’ve all been, tend to be somewhat blinkered in their view towards betting on horses. To anyone remotely interested in racing his writing’s will touch a nerve. He wrote with such knowledge and know-how that it would be hard not to. However, had VDW not mentioned that an 80% strike rate was attainable by employing his methods then there wouldn’t have been half the interest that there ever was? I’m grateful now that he did, because greed is a driving force but the point is still a valid one, and one that I feel is the reason that VDW is so popular.

In 1994 when Erhaab who was a good thing in the Derby ‘we’ set out to achieve an 80% strike rate for a period of 12 months from the start of the flat that year. We selected the bets using the methods of VDW, as we saw them at the time, and only struck when all 3 of us were in unison. In the space of 12 months we made 196 bets of which 132 won, giving us a strike rate of around 67%. We never achieved 80% but even so we were well chuffed! The average price was 7/4 and it was the best year up to then that I’d ever had in betting.

My point is that an 80% strike rate is EXTREMELY difficult (if not impossible) to achieve betting singles at odds against and should not be the target for those wishing to progress. It will only hold you back. Many times you will let a selection pass you by that would contribute nicely to a 50% strike rate at odds that would show healthy profit, but you leave it. Why when it’s a profit maker? VDW mentions the balance between class and form; you also need to get the balance between odds, turnover, and strike rate. For him it seems it wasn’t a problem, 80% strike rate at all sorts of odds, but for us it definitely needs to feature in the equation.

Sorry for the waffle.

Charlie.

An interesting read and certainly not waffle.

I hope this is the first of many posts.

Hava a good day,

welcome chaz and a nice read

i would just like toa sk one thing

you say you started in the 80's and 94 was a good year using the methods as you saw them at the time .How have they changed over the last 8 years?

very interesting reading,i hope you get as much benefit from this thread as i have..good luck

Hello Barney,

The changes in racing that are most noticeable and which have had an impact on selecting horses along the VDW lines are in my opinion the prizes that are now available overseas. The prize that a horse can win abroad in comparison to that of a similar race in this country can be far greater and so it makes life more difficult in assessing a horse’s ability if you are using prize money as a measure. Also the introduction of the showcase race, which attracts a high penalty value, has also had some effect. I find it harder now to isolate as many winners in high-class group races as I’ve managed in years gone by and I have altered the way I play because of this. The class acts are competing all over the world and the opposition can sometimes be extremely hard to measure. Hype seems to play a bigger part nowadays also, which is obviously down to the increased media coverage of the sport.

I subscribe less now to the idea of only playing in the higher-class races because in my mind, to a certain extent, everything is relative. The owner of an 85 rated handicapper is still, at the end of the day, after a prize. And in most of these cases the form of these types is far easier to assess. However 0- 85 is about my cut off point, as form becomes less and less reliable the further you descend below this class level.

The increased media coverage has been great for the betting shop punter but not so good for the rest of us. For instance where the Racing Post lacks in some departments they certainly make up for it in others. They are very astute in their pre-race analysis and rarely miss a trick, which of course means it is harder and harder to gain an edge and find value.

Having said all of that, with the right approach there is loads of opportunity and always will be!

Investor,

Thanks.

Charlie.

hello all...i,ve been looking at a horse today,that i feel epitomises what vdw was trying to get across to us all when he wrote the articles we,ve read and tried to understand,unfortunateley he cannot be supported because of other horses with slighttly better ability,and form to go with it (conflict) he,s super consistent,all barring one blot on his copybook when upped in class,i really think this horse as an outstanding chance,everything seems in line but i,m sure you,ll agree whe weighing up the opposition he has to be left to run,(SULPHUR SPRINGS) any comments greatly appreciated...

A very quick glance at the race would result in the decision - no bet.

On bare ability ratings SS has it to do. Also, I was impressed with Gladiateur the other day. Added to that we have a £26K Cheltenham winner with an ability rating of 66 namely Last Option.

Plus there is heavy rain all over the place today. A change in conditions would make life that much harder for the top wgts`.

Hope my comments are of some use.

Cheers,

Hello Investor,

Sulphur Springs has a very good chance today but in very close proximity on my ratings alone are Gladiateur and Last Option. In these cases it’s a no bet for me and I move straight on and don’t delve any further, I can’t be bothered nowadays! It can also be seen, as touched upon in my previous post, that I fear any value will be sucked out of Sulphur Springs purely because the Post have Napped him and a lot of office money today will see his price a skinny one. There may be a bit to be had in the ring but if I had my eye on this horse to back I’d have been disappointed in the Post’s review. It works out in the end though because when they hype up a horse that opposes mine then obviously the opposite will happen. But like I say this now happens less frequently than it used to.

The 3.50 at Newbury looks to be an interesting race with Protectress and Monturani. The latter is top rated for me but the former ran one quality race as a 2yo.