Epiglotis

Given a recent exchange with Guest, the following data re the top six on VDW'a ability rating in yesterday's class 870 attheraces Gold Cup might interest you, which needs, of course, to be considered in the context of the advice VDW gave in his article of 8/3/1979 (re horses which have fallen, unseated or pulled up):

Bounce Back - ability rating 292. Last race pulled up in a class 435 chase when tailed off. Previously 16th, beaten 45l, in a class 609 chase;

Ad Hoc - AR 214. Last race ur in the Grand National when still in contention. Previously 3rd, beaten 9.75l in class 464 chase;

The Bunny Boiler - AR 207. Last race ur at 1st fence of Grand National. Previously 10th, beaten 37l in class 464 chase;

Foxchapel King - AR 204. Last race 8th, beaten 21 lengths in class 169 chase;

Stormez - AR 162. Last race 2nd, beaten a neck, in a class 638 race;

Gunther McBride - AR 126. Last race "fourth and staying on" when ur in a class 638 race. Previously 2nd, beaten 3l, in a class 580 chase.

Pipedreamer,

Before I respond to your post of yesterday ( my last for approx` 12 days ) I will state that I did not put any monies down yesterday. I say that just in case any of the sceptic`s accuse me of talking after the event.

I had more important things on my mind, ie - there`s only one S****horpe Utd - up the Iron.

I did look at the racing and my thoughts on various races were as follows,

Cenkos and Seebald were without doubt the 2 probables - couldn`t split them.

Desert Deer - well plcd on consistency and the f/c and he was certainly a form horse for yesterday. He was certain to have come on for the run and he has proven himself of the course/distance.

Provided the ground stayed on the fast side he was in my opinion the one to be on. I was going out and therefore wouldn`t be around at race time. Not knowing the going at race time I played safe and left my money in my pocket.

Whitbred - class/form horses were in my opinion Ad Hoc and Stormez. A book could have been an option however both had run in tough races last time. How would they come out those races ? A concern = no bet.

3.45 Leic - Tillerman is a favourite of mine so sometimes we tend to be a little biased although I do try to honest with myself.

When I saw the result and the SP I was gutted.

He was without doubt the class horse of the race however,

- pace of the race was a slight concern

- again, was there a chance of rain which wouldn`t help his chances

- could he concede 6 lbs to an in form Red Carpet who was supposedly very well and improved from his good first winning run.

Summary = no bet.

So yes 4 probable winners were highlighted but non backed for the reasons explained.


*** some great racing in the next 2 weeks so I hope you all find a few good winners ***

Cheers,

Jib
I was responding to pipedreamers post,To which he gave his thoughts,If people are interested they can try and understand why i thought they were good bets Incidently i had a loser in the shape of Izdiham,But i,m still learning so i will make mistakes.

a couple of good things for today

400curragh Nysaean
310cappanelle Le vie dei colori

Determined

In respect of the attheraces Gold Cup, did you take your analysis far enough to have identified what you regarded as the 3rd c/f, as well as the first two?

Barney
When i gave my thoughts on lingo, you mentioned Merce Cunningham.Maybe you should look at Nycean again,There are horses that have shown form in much better class.

In my considered opinion Investor is top of the VDW`ers

Thanks for posting all that, what is it you're suggesting I do with it?

black sam bellamy is a non runner

and there is no better class on show than 5lgth off high chapperal in class 4590.

Fulham
It wuold appear that the first 3 c/f's finished as they should have done,

I can take it then that no-one on this thread actually bothered to write out the numerical picture for the Gold Cup yesterday. If they had they would have seen that the chance of Ad Hoc was immediately highlighted. But of course, as Fulham recently mentioned, it only ever points to the chances of short priced favourites.

Barney
I'm not just thinking of Black Sam Bellamy,Nysean is quoted at 8/11 to short for me considering the opposition,He could win but there's to much conflict for my liking.

Barney
Do you consider Nysean the only form horse in the race,The piece of form you mention was very good,What has materialised since that run and how does the class rating and form stand against others in the field TODAY.and at 8/11 not for me

Epiglotis

The info. I posted was far short of what is needed to get to a position where one decides whether or not a bet should be placed (as of course is completing the numerical picture referred to by Statajack). But given the examples I've posted in the past, I had thought that there was enough there for you or anyone else interested to undertake an initial "pruning" of the list by removing the horses for whom no kind of case can be made as to their being form horses in the context of yesterday's race.

Such a pruning to my mind leaves a list of three "plausibles":

Ad Hoc - AR 214
Stormez - 162
Gunther McBride - 126.

I was interested to note Determined's judgements about the c/f and 2nd c/f. He's probably gone on his holiday now, but I have little doubt that he'd have Gunther McBride as the 3rd c/f. Others may disagree with Determined's view as to the c/f and 2nd c/f (and my assumption that he would have had GM as the 3rd c/f). But I don't.

Oh, and how did the race work out? In case the news may not have reached Japan, the result was:

1st - Ad Hoc, 7/1
2nd - Stormez, 9/2
3rd - Gunther McBride, 7/1.

Pure coincidence, of course. Strange, though, how often there is coincidence between the c/f and the winner in these big and (to some) tricky handicaps when one applies VDW's approach.

investor,

spit it out then.

Determined - Red Carpet had the work watchers jumping up and down, but when you look at what he has actually done on the track he was a false favourite set aside Tillerman.

From the facts in the book we can see that Tillerman showed real improvement last year at top level after starting out in a small race at Leicester. Yesterdays prize was well worth winning so given the form he looked a good bet.

Red Carpet dropped to collect a decent sprint last time and because some of those sprinters behind have come out and won the form has been over rated. There were no Tillermans at Doncaster, just as there were no Olden Times at Sandown yesterday. However, at Sandown Desert Deer was taking a big step up in race class, though against average class horses.

Don't listen to what the press tell you about homework etc if the form on the track doesn't back it up. Michael Jarvis's highly touted 3yo in the first at Ripon yesterday didn't have the form in the book, but he is supposed to be group class. Time may show him to be, but he hadn't indicated it to be the case on the track.

One other horse of interest from yesterday was Colisay who had nearly the full set of credentials on the Roushayd front. All except one vital factor. Did that factor stop him from getting in front?

Fulham,
While completing the numerical picture does not give enough information to fully determine whether a bet can be made, what it does do is determine whether there is a horse in the race that possesses the credentials that might permit a bet to be made.
From what I have seen of the Silver Lining, some successful exponents of the methodology in that book are aware of and utilise this fact.
As for Guest's view of Colisay, he might have spent his time better considering the chances of Skycab in the previous race at Sandown, another horse which like Ad Hoc possessed all the credentials.

Statajack

We can certainly agree that it allows initial consideration of a sub-set of the field which will often contain such a horse. But such horses are not, of course, confined to the sub-set.

Fulham, I know you said you wouldn`t visit certain other threads again and I don`t suppose you have but I did leave a concluding message for you in reply to yours. I`d like you to read it.

III

I'm a man of my word.