Guest,
I understand where you are coming from so to speak, but I have found with the consistency method that it doesn't pay to overlook any aspect of the numerical formula when there are one or more other negatives. If he'd had convincing form over a straight mile, no problem but he is essentially a "run on" rather than a "quicken up" type which leaves him vulnerable to a horse with finishing kick - hence the constant need for Summoner. Its interesting to note that his best winning performance came at Goodwood where he ran along the inside rail if I remember correctly. The ground slopes down away from the rail at Goodwood making it harder for horses to catch one in front if its on the rail.
regards,

340g

i hope no one is going to be daft enough to bet in this.It will provide some good pointers though for the rest of the season. cards will be marked.


anyone got any thought on what we should expect.

Barney,

It looks a great spectacle though. If someone gave you a free bet of £500, which one would you go with? I would have to go with Dubai Destination, if he's right he'll win. But it'd be a gamble at the price.

he his top on the ratings that i use for three year olds fist time out, but is he fit? enough vdw would have to have a garrison of rifles for this race.sparkling water is getting there though,via another route.

Barney,

You are right, and the clock is ticking for SW, however you didn't say which one you'd place your £500 on. Forget temperament, which one?

I wouldn't play this race, as it stands, with your money by the way.

hi chaz


on raw ability it would be dubi destination


i will however play with your money please send A.S.A.P

SORRY ABOUT THE DELAY CHAZ


do you think the derby winner is out tomorrow???

For what it's worth I'd have to go with Dubai Destination but I'll not be backing in this, the 15:05 looks interesting if you can get anywhere near evens on Smokin Beau.

Even with the extra weight I can see him romping home in this, a bit of a course specialist.

carlos

i saw gateman run last week at york

you could see he was a good un going down to the start, he is an absolute giant of a horse.It looked like he was cantering through the field at the end.watch out if its a bit on the soft side.

the 340 doesn't look as bad this morning

lots of bad reports in the press re DD,so will change to SW

Barney

I was at York on Thursday and I understand your point about Gateman. It's also fair to say that there wan't a horse in the class of Smokin Beau in the field at York. Given SB's record over the course and going (I totally agree that it's got to stay GD-FM for SB), I'm confident he'll get the better of Gateman whose past form suggests he'll be more effective over 7-8f.

I believe that if the prices offered are around evens for the two (in what is effectively a two horse race) then SB has to be good value. I suppose you can look at Gateman as an unknown quantity or as a horse with a lot of question marks today, I'm taking the latter stance. The only negative for me is the weight difference between the two but SB has shown an ability to carry the weight in the past and I'm confident he'll prevail today.

I couldn't find anything else that inspired me today so that's the lot.

Be lucky (and methodical)

Carlos

Barney

I was going to add this to the end of the above but forgot.

I still don't think I'll be risking any cash in this and all still hinges on how DD is. If he's to be opposed I think I'd take Playapart and Highdown over SW and it's interesting to note the level of early market support for Highdown. I'm a little biased as I like the way Tregoning handles his horses, very softly softly and one step at a time. The fact that he's entered suggests to me that the trainer thinks he has a chance as he's not generally one to give his horses too much to do.

This will be a good race for 3yo pointers but far too many question marks for me.

Regards

Carlos

Interesting that the hype can actually make the original favourite quite attractively priced - ie DD Almost 5-2 as others such as Highdown are backed down (which now makes that to me an unattractive bet) regardless of whether it wins

Since your suggestion last week I've had a fair bit of joy. I was away over the weekend socialising so Friday-Monday was out from a betting point of view. From the 2 remaining days I've had 3 wagers (my first for nearly 3 weeks) all of which have won (Invincible Spirit & Zindabad at York and Smokin Beau today). In fact I also bet a little 'fun money' when I went to York, but restricted any 'proper' stakes to the two above. I know for a fact I'd have missed SB today and would have wasted a lot of time looking at medium - large field handicaps on both days if it hadn't been for your advice. It's also true to say that with a bet or two the whole thing feels a lot less like hard work and I'm far happier to spend my 3-4 hours a night now there's a little end product.

Just to let you know that your thoughts were appreciated and it looks as though you may have been instrumental in me turning a corner. Thanks again.

Regards

Carlos

Do we have a `Roushayd` type running tomorrow and if so is the opposition to tough to warrant an investment ?

I haven`t done an in depth evaluation as yet but a very quick glance would suggest we have a probable winner in the race.

As usual any comments would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers for now,

all bar the distance

I totally agree that at face value his form clearly shows 2 attempts at 7 furlongs have resulted in defeat.

However, lets look at his last 3 runs,

- Pontefract = stiff uphill

- Salisbury - final 3 fur`s uphill (fast time)

- Lingfield - sharp, slightly downhill (fast time).

Has finished his races strongly in fast times against strong opposition (especially the latter race) and on breeding the extra final may even see an improvement.

All the above will be meaningless until I have evaluated the opposition.

Cheers,

and there are higher class horses in the race

3 questions,

- are the higher ability rated horses in form ?

- who ran in this highest class last time ?

- who do you consider to be the class/form horses ?

**** it is looking a very difficult race ****

Even if I considered `V` to be upto beating the opposition 2 factors do concern me, ie -

(a) the distance would become a problem on soft ground

(b) already had 4 runs this season yet to date he has not been noted as "lw".

Over to you or anybody else,

hi determined

one of the class horse seems to be in form after her opening race.

i am only nit picking as i've not had a good look either just yet and on inspection her 6f win was 6 1/2f.whether or not the form is better is another thing