Carlos


Sure - correct I never bet in a handicap race unless I consider the favourite poor value and beatable and even then would never bet more than 14 runners. Better odds in handicaps rather than non handicaps usually but risk and dangers greater

Maybe turn it on its head - look at the betting forecast - without looking at form - is it a difficult race looking at the forecast would you say or not - if it is maybe leave alone without doing all the form analyses- which takes considerable time - regardless of the value of the race. Was not the first race at York easier to assess - ok the winner was unfortunately the favourite but the second went to form as well.
The Chester cup - I wouldnt even bother looking at the form as there would be to many dangers to my selection - not that I would have one.
Maybe the selection of races is just as important as the selection of the right horses
Maybe something to think about maybe not

Investor

Guest was cool/chilled with you though wasnt he after your emails .Im sure hes looking on even if not contributing
No Im not vdw either - but its an interestinf topic

theprofessional

You certainly have given me something to think about. I think that my race selection is letting me down more than my horse selection leading to a lot of work with few rewards.

It really is time for me to go home but as it says above many thanks..

you will see races when stick out like a sore thumb believe me,but they still need evaluating don,t just dive in because you,ll probably drown,don,t get me wrong i,m no expert,but i,m getting somewhere,follow the methodology,when evaluating pick yourself a positive selection,before the race,and see how it performs,remember nobody will force you to bet, but you must have confidence in your own ability,after a while you,ll see things that happen to frequently to be coincidence ask yourself questions and then the factors will be found,but again remember class/form come first,just friendly advice not trying to teach you how to suck eggs.good luck

i think i dropped a b.....k with systematic today and should have played, but that,s another story,i can,t agree with your comment,that the second race went to form,it had ability yes but can it be in form 5th second to last run over 7f comments headway soon chasing,wknd final f btn 6l last race 9 of 10 chasing leaders hmprd 2 out btn 15l sounds unlucky in running but last three runs priced 9/4 14/1 10/1 sorry mate i would,nt have backed it with your money,respect yes but never a bet..

absolutely lumped on at 5/2 yum! yum! as you say

I`ve just rated all the runners for `ability` only at this stage in the first 4 races at York and whilst the said rating in isolation means nothing I firmly believe this sole factor will come into its own tomorrow.

The 1.55 looks a minefield but I`m reasonably confident there is a horse who shows up very well in many of the VDW factors, ie - well placed on ability, best speed figure recorded shows up well compared to opposition, class of races won compares favourably with opposition. Added to that course, going, jockey, etc ideal. Form this season in my opinion is an illusion.

**** when the prize is big enough the class horse rarely fails to take the prize ****

Bye for now,


PLEASED TO SEE THIS THREAD BACK TO LIFE AGAIN. LONG MAY IT CONTINUE.

here here!!!!

are you going to post more detail determined


well done investor


is anyone else going to york on thursday???want to meet???

Night Flight 141
Ellens Lad 103
Time n Time Again 91
Smart Predator 86
Muja Farewell 82
Henry Hall 81
Boanerges 78

best Topspeed figure recorded (career)

Ellens Lad 109
Doctor Spin 106
Smart Predator 104
Henry Hall 104
Atlantic Viking 95


highest class/value race won (career)

Night Flight 290
Ellens Lad 247
Smart Predator 190
Muja Farewell 180
Henry Hall 178
Boanerges 174

Several horses are consistent to all lists and I`ll be very disappointed if the winner is not among them.

Also, I firmly believe the winner will come from stalls 1 - 11 as in my opinion all the `class` horses capable of winning this race are drawn here. The pace horses are here also.

At this early stage I will be investing on one horse only from those listed above. Further hard work may show that there is book to be had.

My bedtime,

Goodnight.

1.55 YORK

My thoughts on those common to at least 2 of the 3 lists.

Smart Predator – one of my favourite horses who progressed through out the whole of last season and now has Group 2 entries. Will win a nice race this year and in my opinion there`s a nice race at Epsom that`s ideal for him. Won this race last year carrying 8-03 (OR=83) but has the burden of 10-00 today. Last of 13 on seasonal debut when a bit bkwd and unfancied in the betting. Jockey booking catches the eye today but didn`t show enough on debut to warrant a bet today.
No doubt conditions are ideal but not for me today.

Ellens Lad – started last season on OR of 108 which was always going to make life difficult. His excellent 2nd at York in Sept` showed the ability was still there.
Runs off an OR of 96 today. Whats he done this season to date ? A very promising debut saw him well supported on run number 2 to beat the likes of Kyllachy, etc but the draw on the way the race was run didn`t suit. Last time ran over 6 furlongs and in my opinion marked his card. 7th of 12 will have many questioning that statement but he was put into the race early to be competitive only to weaken at the 5 furlong marker.
Loves York. Jockey has very good record on the horse. Race will be run to suit. Well drawn. Overall class wins and time figures(in class) compare very favourably with the opposition.
A lot of plus` and the probable winner.

Henry Hall – 5th in this race last year on seasonal debut and has a 22 lbs pull with Smart Predator on that running. Has some excellent hcap form to his name and can be competitive here if fit. Seasonal debut only 6 days ago when well beaten at Chester albeit from an impossible draw. Remains an the shortlist.

Night Flight – has to respected on ability rating alone. Has been given 25 day break to freshen him up for this after 3 quick runs. Runs well here but on the book I cannot see him beating Boanerges or Ellens Lad.

Boanerges – form of his life. Up 6 lbs since last win to a new OR of 88. Four attempts in class B`s in past have resulted in the following form figures = 0000. Been asked to win a competitive race off a 6 lbs higher when upped in class. Could maintain the improvement but others with higher ability preferred.

There is every chance the winner is not even mentioned above given the competitve nature of the race and I accept such a difficult race will not even be considered by the majority of you but I have strong views on the event and ELLENS LAD is a very likely investment.

Good luck today,

Determined,

Just a quick thought as have yet to study in detail. Although Ellens Lad has won on g/f in the past, it's noticeable that the best of recent form has been on softer going eg; Donc in March 21/03/02 Hcap B210 5f sf 9-8 5/22 4l 78 (Donc)
24/09/00 Hcap B150 5f sf 9-5 1/19 1l 109 (Ascot)

Just a thought.

Oldtimer

good morning everyone,

deteremined i agrre with you there is conflict through the ratings another thing i wonder is why has holland jocked off SP onto BOanerges who has recently put in a class performance, i think with the likely pace he will be in the ideal position to power out of the bend and then they wont catch him.watch out if he turns up covered in grease, i wonder if that was to stop his bollocks rubbing. with ellens lad i think he knows the game by now and must be hard to get right at his age.


have a good today at york.

i know tommorow i am leaving my temprement hat at home and having some fun

[This message was edited by Barney on May 15, 2002 at 07:23 AM.]

Oldtimer,

I totally agree that Ellens Lad`s best winning form in recent seasons has been with cut in the ground. That said I`m confident the going will not be an excuse if he loses.

By the way rain is certainly in the air at the moment and I wouldn`t be surprised to see some heavy showers.


Barney,

You`re at it again. Speaking a different language. Where does the bend come into it ?
If Smart Predator wins today good luck to him but if he were mine they`d be a little left to work on today in order for him to peak at Epsom where the top weight will only carry 9-07 and the prize will double whats on offer today.
He may win both.

Cheers,

Investor

I didnt actually say the second race - but I can see the confusion - I meant the winner and second in the first race ....werent to hard to find. I wouldnt have got out of bed to look at the second race yesterday,like the first at York today

There`s more than one race at York today so I`ll be interested on your thoughts on the "proper" races.

Very quickly as like the majority I`m busy evaluating.

The Dante is surely full of questions (conflict).

Possible opportunities in the 2.25 and 3.25 ?

Cheers,

My very brief views for what theyre worth is would be to look at the 3.25 and Cecils horse and ask the question have you a couple to beat it. It might be the favourite on paper but it opens up some potential bets on others maybe . Cecils out of form (although he did win before when this was the case) - unlucky in running last time ? even so not that close to the winner . mile this time
rise in weight since last win. Might well win but certainly a couple of negatives and at say 5-2 wouldnt touch at that price . So does this mean theres value elsewhere?

2.25 could be an opportunity - and I would ask the same question as above about Dunlops horse in the last .

Sorry if these thoughts werent what you wanted - but I mainly consider potential pricing and value first in a race and then maybe have a quick look at some positives and negatives

Hello Guest

One quick point is that VDW was actually referring to the 3 most consistent ratings with his figures. IE There could be any number of horses with a consistency total of 3.

The 3 lowest figures still provide many winners, but the one to be on has to be sorted out via class and form.

in for a penny,in for a pound.we all know how to sort the ability/cons ratings so i,ll leave them obviously a very tricky race...SIR GEORGE TURNER miles clear on ability,and has form,therefore i make him c/f horse very unlucky lto when btn shd by sohaib,bred to stay the trip,and is well entitled to win today,on class alone but i cant back him as a single...MOON BALLAD came out as 2 yr old at newmarket over 7f and winning with a good s/f then taken over to dubai where running running 4th in a big group 2 race,son of the great singspiel,a good reappearance at newmarket over a mile and two,but i dont think he,ll be in the winners enclosure today...WHERE OR WHEN good ability but the trip may be a problem...BALAKHERI with an ability rating of 73 nothing to shout about in comparison but on inspection of various factors this horse in my opinion poses a big threat to S.G.T bred to stay,proven at a mile two actually bred to stay further won a fairly decent hcap going up a long way i know but progressive nonetheless...conclusion (book) SIR GEORGE TURNER/BALAKHERI i may get egg on my face,but it,s all a learning process especially the flat

theprofessional

I went home last night and instead at looking at todays form I instead went through the near 100 analysis I'd performed on this years flat racing so far. The pointers you gave me yesterday could have saved me a lot of time and wasted effort. It's funny because I'd been asking myself similar questions but it took you to point out what should have been staring me in the face, once again many thanks.

investor

With regards to the 'sore thumb' situation, I'm confident that these will present themselves in time as long as I keep on putting in the effort. I've got some of the old form books from the 70s and 80s and have worked through some of the examples. This has given me a few clues with regards to what to look for. Another thankyou for the encouragement and don't worry the egg thing, I believe you can never stop learning.

No races covered last night and I'm off to York tomorrow so after 5:30 tonight I'll not be online again until back at work Monday.

Hope that everyone has a lucky few days.

Carlos