2.20 ling..i feel that MOUSESKI can once again take the spoils in this one.But imo KALCA MOME represents a danger he has weight against but has been running in higher class.No bet.

3.00 lud MANORAM..I thought this horse represented a good prospect last week,But was pulled.Looks to have more in his favour today than in that particular race and looks a good placement.Has been running in higher class than most in this race.I'm slightly concerned about the price lto but still believe this horse represents a decent propositon.

3.30 lud INCA TRAIL..Looks asthough he is coming to the boil (needs a couple of runs) But giving 10lb to the next in the handicap,Some of them win but not enough to carry my money,No bet.

Lee
The point i was making was if jib was putting 50's and 100's he may think more about volume of bets.I fully understand that individuals bet within there means but it's going outside that threshold or comfort zone.That makes you look at a race much harder a fiver isn't going to keep food of the table,But 50 or 100+ might do.

Investor,
Kalca Mome Is the c/f,It is also interesting to consider How on earth it was expected(bless you)to beat horses rated with abilty of , respectively, 130 and 100.

I expect the reason lies within the form of Tidour, who did give Armaturk a good thrashing.

Some may have caught a cold!!

'bless you' was my cheap shot at humour, regarding 'tissue makers' - kleenex and the like.

Sorry to dissapoint.

Investor,

Not everyone punts on horses for food.

Seanrua,

If you cant judge for yourself what entails ran well, a simple option is to rely on the opinion of someone you trust. For instance, the official handicapper, widely regarded as a good judge by many. If he puts the horse up a pound or two its bound to have ran well, relative to the opposition. Another well respected judge, by most, is the speed figure compiler, if the horse has maintained a good figure or, god forgive, improved it then its almost certain that the horse "ran well".

Lee,

I will catch a cold waiting for you and Ectoo to explain consistency.

Lee
I apologise if i hit a nerve,It wasn't intended.I was merely making a point with regard to volume of bets i.e if the stakes were higher then individuals wouldn't bet on two flies running up a wall.

pkboy,

Dose yourself up then, that's my advise.

Investor,

You haven't hit a nerve. Incidentally, what in your opinion is the correct 'volume' of bets to make?

Lee,

Thats poor advise. Glad your not my doctor.

I had the flu Jab sometime ago now. Perhaps instead of consistency of form we could just touch upon form and what EXACTLY constitutes true form,from CVDW's perspective of course. Then we may be able to judge "accurately" whether its consistent or not.

Consistency and Prominent King.I would be grateful for some clarity on this issue.

In "Golden Years",P.K.has been given a consistency rating of 5.In reality? it is 8.

This would place him outside the top three on consistency,now I always put it down as a misprint,but am not so sure anymore.It was my interpretation of the vdw method,at the time this letter no.8 was written,that VDW was trying to impart this scenario of the top 5/6 in the forecast and top 3 on consistency,any thoughts on this.

Pipedreamer,

We all know Drumgora was good thing. What about Credit Card in the Morgana hurdle? Reverting to hurdles for a confidence booster after falling when a good thing in the class 16 Eden Quay handicap(shortly before, winning the class 24 Silk Cut handicap, That after coming second in the class 41 troytown Handicap)

Not exactly clarity, but a good place to look.

Investor,

From your posts I get the impression that you are frightened by losers and regard having one as a disaster.

I regard losers as a natural result of betting on horses, though I must admit after a string of a dozen or so I do get a bit downhearted. However a double figure winner soons sorts that out. Generally I enjoy betting , you sound as if it is a v stressful experience, so you are probably playing too high.

In my early twenties I did well for v nearly two years retrieving, though I think in the end I was so sick of it that I went on 'tilt' when finally my methods met their nexus. I lived in N London at the time and had over 20k in my apartment that was my working bank. In a day and a half I lost 11k in WHills in Stoke Newington High Street, I went home and got the rest and stuck 7k + tax on a 4/7 shot just to prove I had the balls.

6 months later I was in the middle of the Amazon jungle a much happier man. Racing for me now hopefully affords me a few treats. A recent good spell has paid for 'Timeforms Statistical Review' (jumps), 'Trainers4courses'(jumps), and the latest edition of 'Trend Horses' ordered from Raceform, the last two have not yet arrived. But plodding along in my own humble way I get my fun. Do you?

Jib
I am TRULY sorry to hear of your demise all them years ago.As long as your happy then that makes up for a lot,Anyway,I don't have a problem with losers and can't quite understand why you feel i have.I could have put a lot more selections on the underpants thread but did i need to.No i didn't you made a point before the thread got going that it was s/r and roi that the thread was about and if i wanted to get 80% winners then i should use that particular thread i'm sure you remember that.You had 29 selections (i think) i had 6 the roi for them 6 bets was 25% not brilliant but manageable what was your roi john.

Lee
I don't understand your questioning.From a vdw perspective,When one comes along,Can't really say anymore than that.With regard to my other interest which involves dutching,Well that depends on how many races have 8 and below runners and wether they fit the criteria.I have had 8 in one day but that was before i added a few filters.Oh and i'll just say that none of these would be classed as flies running up walls.

Investor,

Firstly, as a retriever there is no vaccine against a 'demise'. Your date with it is awaiting you in the future.

Secondly if you want to take the underwear thread seriously then I accept your decision, just tack the results onto my other threads they shouldnt make much difference.

Thank you for your reply regarding a horse running well., PKboy.
I certainly know what ran well in the races I watch, and I'll have to cross-check with your two criteria, to see if there's agreement.

That's a) a rising OR
b) a rising speed figure, I believe you said.

I'm not sure why improving RPR isn't mentioned, and I'm not sure that the other VDWers agree with you.
There hasn't been much response to my question, though Lee didn't seem to be going along with your view, entirely.

Rather than play the endless game of verbal ping-pong ( oh no I didn't, oh yes you did), I'll make a clear, two part, statement of what I class as a good run:

1) a comfortable victory against rivals of similar OR rating

2) a 2nd, 3rd or 4th placing with the horse finishing comfortably but not winning for a " reason" or " good cause" other than "not good enough".
"
All out and losing by a whisker" doesn't go down in my book as " ran well".
This is the type that will be " false fav" next race, imo, and, indeed, it may have an improved OR and TS, which I have to disregard.

Perhaps, this means that I cannot put a figure on my idea of "ran well".

Any comments or suggestions, anyone?

Jib
There is only demise when you put all your eggs in one basket.This isn't raw retrieval and the amount doesn't have to be retrieved in one go if it get's to heavy.Since my initial investment well over six months ago that amount has trebled but my aim is still the same as when i started.by sticking to smaller fields and dutching using divisors it isn't long before one pops in like can an trona just has clearing my 2nd fav bank after 2 stright losses (in terms of dutching).If your adequately funded and don't do stupid things like you did then i can't foresee a problem in the way i go about my business.

Seanrua,

Those considerations, are "ONLY" if you cant work out what ran well yourself. Your RPR may be just as good whoknows, after all CVDW stated that "any ratings will do".

Regarding point 1, if the selection is giving them weight you will be in Ectoo territory.

On your other point there is a vast difference between the assesment of Handicap and Non-Handicap form and it will lead to needless frustration if you treat all races the same. "whiskers" are the best margins, particularly if flogged to get there. But, of course, it all depends on where in the form cycle the horse is at the time.

Investor,

Partial retrieval is much more sensible, I wish all the luck with it. My only advice is that if in spite of all your precautions it starts to go sour then chicken out and live to fight another day.

jib
I will heed your advice and thankyou.

Well iv'e got to take that one on the chin,Finished 3rd beaten 18 lgs deary deary me.I was concerned about the price lto and should have seen it coming.Never mind there's always tomorrow.

Incidently iv'e been banging on in the past about horses giving weight,Well,Mouseski and Kalca mome were giving 12 and 11lb to the next in the handicap recipe for disaster on most occasions,Let's see how Inca trail fairs.