BARNEY
Re Tiutchev, Gerald Delamere's pre-race comment that "Tiutchev was 'tubby' before Sandown, and isn't today" would possibly explain his Sandown defeat better than the issue of weight,(IMO).

could well be right there johnd.

Johnd
It's what a horse does on a track,That is the important factor not what Mr Delamere Or anybody else says.

Going back to See more business yesterday,I hope you backed it by the way.I would just like to quote this"the class in which a horse runs,Is not the same as the class in which they compete".

quote:

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"the class in which a horse runs,Is not the same as the class in which they compete".

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Would you like to explain that quote Investor?

AROWSON
A word of caution,if I may. Classified's last run was a much stiffer test than today's, and he also had the luxury of his stablemate to make the pace for him. Last year he won over 2m4f at Aintree, but against lesser opposition than he meets here. His class may well carry him through, but I would hardly say he is placed in the ideal circumstances.

mtoto,

I am intrigued that you can get marlborough out of form but not beacon light.

Boozer
The quote is self explanatory,If you look at the form of see more business and what he had achieved relative to the rest of the field,And the conditions he had achieved it in,You will hopefully see he was the only one at the races,Or to put it another way "the winner in a race"

Food for thought:

Much has been said in this thread about the Class/Form horse, but what is form?.

Most vdw "disciples" look for recent form, and they are adamant that "only recent" form is of any value to us, this of course in the main should be the case, but this does depend on which selection method one is using for any given race.

Vdw never placed any wager on a horse's first run of the season, this has been said many times. At this point suffice it to say that Lincoln winners were found using the Class/Form horse on a number of occasions by vdw himself, this can be found in most of his writings.

This in itself gives us more of a clue than one first realises. Once the implications of betting in the Lincoln has been grasped, then your thoughts will be able to expand on this.

There appear to be some very knowlegable people on vdw methodology on this thread, it is nice to see that progress is being made by those that are able to open their mind.

"r"

Pipedreamer

Your point is absolutely right. Some may be surprised to learn that nearly half of the first 30 selections VDW gave us were having their first runs of the season, starting with his second earliest selection (by Form Book order), Rifle Brigade.

Today
2.30 font Looks to be between Classified/Stromness,If we follow the procedure as in Spells it all out,There is only one winner ( in my mind ) CLASSIFIED

Stromness obviously has ability,That goes without saying but i feel the conditions of the race today are totally against him,And classified will prevail.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if BICYCLE THIEF didn't enter the winners enclosure in the 1.55.

investor

i would be very suprised

Hello All,

hope you and yours are well and happy.

Arowson - I have looked at the 2.30 Fontwell and noted the 3 horse you mentioned. I agree that Milligan and Stromness are out of form. However I make Classified out of form as well. In fact I don't think its been in form this season.

I'm terrible at picking winners but my selection for the 2.30 Fontwell is Telimar Prince which I make as the C/F horse. Any comments would be gratefully received.

All the best
hedgehog

Hedgehog

In my view, Classified is without a doubt the class/form horse, and arguably the only form horse in the race. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll win, of course, so good luck with Telimar Prince.

HEDGEHOG
You may well be right, even if he wins today. He will, no doubt, be in form when it really matters.

hedgehog, could you give us your reasons for backing telimar prince i make, classified as the class/ form horse,...why do you think this horse has been out of form this season,,,,grundy

Johnd
Judging by your post to Hedgehog,It would seem that you were unsure as to wether Classified was a form horse.Would that assumption be correct.

Hello All,

Fulham, JohnD, Grundy, Investor - thanks for your replies and comments.

I don't think the 2.30 Fontwell was much of a test and I still don't think Classified is in form. I don't see how an inform 149 could beat an inform 47 by as little as 1.5L. Does that mean 1L = 68 ability points? I don't think so.

Maybe I should be saying Classified is in form but at somewhere round the 50 - 70 level. That to me means it will come unstuck when faced with inform horses at the 100+ mark when it reaches Cheltenham.

Grundy - I hope that answers your question.

Any replies would be gratefully received.
All the best
hedgehog

P.S. This was not a handicap. Classified was not giving 2 stone away to TP which might have explained the disparity in ability ratings for such a small margin of victory.
hedgehog

Hedgehog
Classified was in form relative to the rest of the field,The evaluation when carried out,Will pinpoint these types.These type of races are where you will achieve the 80% s/r that was indicated by vdw.It doesn't really matter how far he won by.He was the c/f horse with pretty much everything in his favour,And showed it by winning his race.Circumstances may be different for cheltenham but that will be evaluated on the day.But from today's point of view he was "the winner in the race"When you understand that quote you will find that you can narrow a race down so much quicker,And often the good things will smack you in the face.

Hedgehog

Putting it very simplistically, there are three elements to be satisfied to find a good bet - class, form and "conditions". As Johnd suggested, today's conditions weren't perfect for Classified.

It would be rare to find a situation where a horse has won a class 446 (Grade 1) and was not a form horse when running next time out in a class 232 (Grade 2). Today was not such a day.

hedgehog,

I would be more bothered about watching yours next time out after a 47 ran a 148 to a couple of lengths in a class 232.