Value price for BM 1/2, value for SR 5/1.

Bugger. Using value and likely SP's it has to be BM.

Well BEST MATE is confirmed as a selection today.He has an ab rating of 660 with the nearest being Frenchman's creek on 166.Which means that B.M has averaged a whopping 49 grand in win prize money more than anything else in this race.he's won 4 from 5 fto and is 2 from 2 at exeter.And we all know what race he comes out of.H Knight and T Biddlecombe went all the way to exeter to check out the ground.I wish all those that oppose him the best of luck.

Investor
Stating meeting and time of race might save people a bit of time.

Or shall I just trawl through every meeting and every race to try and find it?

Come on, it ain't that hard.....is it?

Does not matter now

Managed to find it on my own. Well done me.
My opinion?

I do not think you can make a profit doing horses at those sort of prices, in the long run.

However, you are brave enough to have a go. Now you get some respect.

Go on then, and good luck.

Investor,

Sorry I didn't get back to you; terrible computer probs.

OK now, but running late so I'll be in touch later.

If I was betting on the race, which I'm not, my money would be on Best Mate.

Going by what VDW wrote in Systematic Betting re Desert Orchid, I don't think he would have been betting on Best Mate just like he does not seem to have bet on, or opposed, Desert Orchid on its reappearance.(He did not 'have his betting boots on'.) He would not have opposed Best Mate but as this is BMs first run of the season, he would have been waiting for the horse to show an improved speed figure.

My opinion is that you'd have to be mad to back Best Mate today from a VDW angle - people get carried away with the hype that surrounds horses such as BM, surely people can wait for more solid opportunities at better prices?

Did anyone read the RP text commentary?

Bearing in mind there are 4 runners...

Best mate leads
Sir Rembrandt lies second
Seebald third
Frenchmans Creek midfield

Midfield???

Sir Rembrandt couldnt go right-handed and at 20secs above standard Best Mate was quite some way off race fit.

Well done Investor. The best horse in a race always seems to be able to pull a little bit more out if needed.

JIB,

You would hardly expect Best Mate to be fully race-fit, as I'm sure the stable has far loftier plans for him than a race at Exeter.

Oldtimer

Well done Invesstor amd Black Cat!

I've just gone down the pan with MY short-priced selection at Wolver, Shannon Cross.

My traditional feeling is, like Swish, that it's hard to profit from these shorties, BUT, how's about PLACE betting them?

Tote paid 1.30 on my 5/4f that came 2nd.

Any comments, anyone? I believe Swish has done a lot of research into this sort of thing.

And, BC, I note you're doing well on your thread elsewhere; would that staking plan you are using ( incremental) be worth trying with place betting?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Seanrua:
And, BC, I note you're doing well on your thread elsewhere; would that staking plan you are using ( incremental) be worth trying with place betting?

---

No, I don't think it would work with such low odds. If you get two unplaced, you'd need 8 consecutive placings at 0.25 just to break even.

In case you're interested, here are my guidelines...


Selection Process
I do not use a system as such to select bets. Instead I will pick whatever I consider to be the best bets of the day (if any). No more than 3 a day at most.

Odds
I really don’t want to go much below evens. If I say evens, I may take the occasional 10/11. But that will keep me roughly to that range. No upper odds limit.

Bank and Target
Working from a bank of £1,000, my initial target will be 1% of the bank per winner i.e. £10. per winner initially. After each winner, the target will be reassessed to be roughly 1% of the new bank. Therefore, after my first 10 winners, my new target will be £11.

Staking
After each loser, I will increase in 1 point additions (as per VDW) unless the retrieval amount is lower than would be my 1 point. This will ensure that the stake never gets out of hand.

Stop Loss
I am going to put in a stop loss, which will be when the total amount I have lost = the previous months profit, I will use that profit to write it off. For the month of November, the stop loss will be £250.

Betting Months
May 1 to Sept 30
Nov 1 to mid-March (after Cheltenham)

Please note: It is still in the very early experimental stage. If you use it and lose, please do not blame BlackCat!

I would also put in this addendum to the above guidelines. You need to be really selective with bets. Not be afraid to have a day or few days with no bets if something strong doesn't show up. Strike rate and odds - they are everything!

Hi Seanrua

I am wrong. Because of increasing at 1 point intervals, 2 consecutive non-placing selections would need 4 placed to break even, not 8.

And at the place strike rate I am currently experiencing , that may make it viable. But I think that by quartering the odds, it may make it a very long term process! Might be worth looking at tho'.

BlackCat

Thank you, BC.

I'm never sure about this place issue.

I'll have to keep records for a long time, and compare against my more maverick-style betting!

Seanura
I reckon, on average, 76% of favs place. (non-hcps)

Therefore if you got 1-3 a place, for every 100 horses you bet you would put 100 points on and get a return of 101.8. Therefore pointless.

If you got an average of 1-2 a place, however, you would make a profit of 14 pnts for every 100 you staked.

However by using the guidelines in Stewards Enquieries' excellent article elsewhere on the board, (which I see you have read) you could probably get higher percentages to place than the average.

However I suggest that, using SE's guidelines you look for for ones that are NOT favourite.

I can't say an exact system, because intuition must play a part.

But if you look at the second, 3rd and 4th favs (or around that area), you may do well. I have done quite well with this idea. (to place).

Ectoo, recently said that the SPEED FIGURE IS THE FORM. Also SE says your selection must be no lower than 75% of the top rated. I agree.

However that does not mean (unfortunately) that a 33-1 top speed has the same chance of placing as a 5-1 top speed. I do not know why this is and once asked the Racing Post, but they never repled. (they don't like replying much).

Mtoto often talks about horses being consistent. Well I used to correspond with Mtoto and he DOES know what he is talking about, despite people (including my pal JIB disputing him.

So if your horse has scored good speed figs regularly ther is a fair chance it may do it again.

But he likes top class races where consistency is more important. Generally, by their very nature, lower class races will not have horses in them with consistent speed figures. This is ok though so long as fig is good and preferably over same dis and going (even better same course).

As for consistent form figs like 223122 etc I don't subscribe to that idea, but that's just my opinion. (again it might be more important in top class races rather than lower ones.)

Value, as SE and many others have said is important but when you are place only betting on Betfair you can't always get value. Sometimes the place odds are diabolical, especially if the fav is odds-on, (the other runners can often be very poor prices to place. However, luckily this is not always the case, infact sometimes it is the opposite.

Last night i got 4-5 a place on a hose that was 11-10 to win in Australia. Now that IS value. That may appear as though I am contradicting myself as I suggest not doing favs, but you will see that getting 4-5 for a horse that should be about 1-5 is good value.

Anyway myself and others have given you a lot of advice noe so perhaps you will do better as a bettor!

I realise it must be bamboozling because although there are a lot of intelligent people on here they don't always agree as you will have seen.

Lee
The only thing that stopped B.M being a racing certainty was the fact that it was his re appearance,I got 1.69 early doors on betfair and was quite happy with that.A lot will think he was lucky but the horse always just does enough.I also have better priced winners/selections but given the superiority in class and his stats when re appearing i was prepared to play.

Jonto
It wasn't because Desert Orchid was fto that vdw left the betting boots off,It was because he was taking on horses that had shown form in higher class.

Lee
Iv'e just re read your post "Hype".How can you of all people say that.There is a lot more on offer now with this order of merit i.e 200 grand.Everybody knows what h.knight is like with the horse.If there was the slightest doubt she would have pulled him,He was there to win and he did the job like the class animal that he is.Hype.