I'm glad i didn't lay it.

quote:

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Originally posted by investor:
Lee
I apologise if i hit a nerve,It wasn't intended.I was merely making a point with regard to volume of bets i.e if the stakes were higher then individuals wouldn't bet on two flies running up a wall.

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I wouldn't bet on it!

Years ago in another life,
I picked up a fare from a pub.
His mates had to weigh in with his fare,
because he had lost all his dough [or should that be Doh!] playing odds or evens with 2 coins. Normally you play this for the coins, so I believe, but in this instance the coins were just tokens. They were playing for 50 pound notes!

Pipedreamer,

It seems to be excepted that those figures are misprints, while I can see they may have been in the original printing in the SCHB. Why was it not corrected, and why repeat it when The Golden Years was printed?

With a little thought I can make BL = 3 PK = 5 and using the same process DF = 7. What I can't do is make Monksfield = 16, so I am not sure if the thinking is correct.

There is a reasonably big difference between the % difference of 211 and 121 to that of 112. VDW would have been aware of this yet still seems to take all 3 as = 4. Perhaps the 'incorrect' figures are just another cross check.

Seanrua,

If you are using a reliable a/rating why do you need to put figures against a run to see if it was a good one? Can't the run be judged against the a/rating? A rule of thumb for me is if it finished in the money it can't be a bad run. Much is made of money being the driving force in racing. The trainer has learnt something about the horse and it hasn't cost money. As you say if the horses has been hard ridden the chances are this was a/the target. No matter what some think the trainer DOESN'T know for certain until a horse has been tried under racing conditions. They like us have to learn their subject and most winner have proven their ability before they go for the big one. Someone pointed out all of Mr Hall's selections had been raised in class, in fact Lee has mentioned this. They may have been raised in class based on money, but most had proven their ability in the class of the race in question, and was the last run a target, or a fact finding mission?

Be Lucky

Thank you Pkboy and Mtoto for your replies to my question.

I'm not sure if my present methods are particularly reliable, so I was fishing for ideas.

"Form cycles" is something I haven't used yet, and I'd need to learn a lot before I could.

Weight is something I rarely comnsider, so maybe that's an area I need to improve in.

Again, differences between Hcps and Non hcps hasn't mattered much in my betting, so that's another thing to study!

Finally, two horses that I know ran really well lto are Maystock and Greenwich Meantime, but I felt sure they woukld flop today. They did.

Whereas a horse called Champagne something ran well and just got third at Lingfield the other day; now this is one i expect to win, nto.

Just wanted some neater definitions, that's all.
Perhaps, there are none.

Btw,all examples are taken from the AW, so it is unlikely that VDW principles apply.

On a different path to what you guys like talking about.. but of interest.

The Cheltenham meeting that starts tomorrow has been a happy hunting ground for M PIPE over the years.

These figures are only up to November 2002 so in effect anyone can check if they were any good in 2003..I haven't checked so if anyone would like to ..then you can check if it was worth looking at.
==============================================

Ok..so from 1992 - 2002 PIPE'S record at this Cheltenham November meeting were

33/132 = 25% = LSP +55 = ROI +41%

In more recent years which I am more interested

1996 - 2002

29/100 = 29% = LSP +66 = ROI +66%

This record shows that Pipe has his horses ready for this meeting which is a big plus as we know they are fit whereas other trainers horses aren't as ready and won't show this sort of return.

P NICOLLS record for example 1996 - 2002 is
6/48 = 12% = LSP -20
N HENDERSON record
6/28 = 21% = LSP -4

Here is an interesting fact about PIPE's runners here..the front runners have done very poorly

Made all on prev wins = 1/17 = 6% = LSP -13 ROI -77%

If you think about it a lot of Pipes in the past have been front runners and punters think they will win just because they have looked impressive probably winning just prior to this meeting..they come to Cheltenham early in the season and get knackered running up that hill.

If we just blindly follow Pipe at this meeting on none front running horses we get

28/83 = 34% = +80 LSP = +96% ROI

seems nice

Thank you, Ectoo. That could be very useful.

Do Pipe's "outsiders" account for much of his profit?

25 of the winners were SP 1 2 or 3 Sean..so no

basically ..fitness is beating the odds i reckon.. a good edge to have at this time of year

This message has been edited. Last edited by: ectoo,

Thank you Ectoo.

1.45 chel..I wouldn't be looking past MARCEL/NYRCHE in this race,Not just because they both have cons ratings of 3 it goes deeper than that.

2.20..This czech winning machine will be interesting to watch today.

B.C
2 horses that fall into the "method" today

WELL CHIEF
COMPLY OR DIE

Both have one factor against.Well chief is running for the first time since winning at aintree in april,But has won both times on seasonal re appearrence.

Comply or die..Has doubts with the trip Finished within 2.5 lgs of Ollie Magern 2 runs back over same c/d.Both these horses are worth looking at from a vdw perspective aswell.

Good luck to all whatever you chose to do.

Investor,

what was the name of that horse who was joint fav in Marcels race? I think he went into that race as c/f and a good thing.

P.K boy
I don't consider the horse was a good thing lto.And he's not c/f today.It's not a race i would play in (novice hurdle) but i take your point and fully understand where your coming from.

Hi Investor
I have selected CorD. I too looked at the trip issue too. But he had won over the trip in a classy hurdles event earlier in his career. So proven (I hope).

Hi ectoo
Excellent statistics.

BlackCat

Yes, thanks to Ectoo and all who've put up selections.

I'm out of my depth here, but I noted two fancied horses are put up as LAYS by a respected member of Gummy forum:

Un Jour a Vassy

The Rising Moon.

These are also widely tipped as winners by several others!!??

Well i'm going to aftertime ( i mentioned the 2 horses prior to the off so maybe you'll forgive me) I mentioned Not looking past MARCEL/NYRCHE This morning.I was fairly certain that the winner would come from 1 of 3 horses (that needs thinking about)And Rising Moon wasn't one of them.Iv'e watched reems of horses go into the winners enclosure in Novice Hurdles without a penny on.The only reason being that all vdw's examples are in Novice chases handicap chases and h/cap hurdles.This horse was a good thing today,Make no mistake about that.I was in the bookies and screwed my betting slip up twice.But 5/1 was a crazy crazy price for this horse.I would advise anybody who is really interested in vdw to have a good look at this horse because to my mind he was a classic good thing.

Sat, Nov 13

245 Cheltenham

TIKRAM ew.

Hi Seanrua

I put up some thoughts for you on the 2:45 one of the other threads. Hope you found it OK.

BlackCat

Hi everyone,

The other threads are a bit preoccupied with bickering and posturing at the moment, so I am not sure I am going to bother with the VDW forum any more for a while. It does seem to bring out the worst in people! I've had my say, but in truth, we are probably all wrong by not being able to see anyone else’s point of view. I include myself in that too.

Over the past few weeks, I've had a pop at Johnd and Investor. Mtoto took one of my posts that way too. And today, I've made some comments at those who were having a go at Investor, (ectoo, JIB, and to a lesser extent TC).

At this rate, I will end up having to change my tag to “Billy No friends”! So I will be posting up thoughts and selections elsewhere, certainly for the time being.

Well done to ectoo in spotting the Pipe factor. You must be well pleased. I could only manage a measly 11/8 winner!

If I have offended anyone, either in that list or not, I apologise.



Good luck to you all. Hopefully see you on some of the other Gummy forums.

BlackCat

BC,

Dont worry about it, everything is fine with me! VDW is good at growing your skin thick!

Thanks for that JIB.

BC - is that a "Dead Horse" or VDW that you are flogging ??

No problems with your posts here or elswhere - pity that most of the VDWrs cant follow you onto the rest of the Forum !