Investor,

The betting public get carried away with the likes of Best Mate, but there are times when they clearly shouldn’t be backed, and if Best Mate is a typical bet by those who backed him yesterday, and they stand by their decision to back him, they will never make money from betting on horses.

You clearly implied in your post before the race that ‘first time out’ wouldn’t be a problem for the horse? The fact that he just got up on the line against Seebald confirmed to me that it would be a problem, and my judgment was correct that to back the horse would be folly. 10 lengths in the Cheltenham Gold Cup 03, the highest class chase of them all, 9 lengths in the Ericsson Chase 03 – not the sign of a horse that just does enough to win his races!

A piece of advise - Don’t listen to what the owners have to say either before or after the race, they come with emotional attachment, and Jim Lewis and all concerned know that Best Mate had to work for it yesterday, and will need the 6 weeks off before the Ericsson, but it's all part of the plan.

Lee
I don't listen to trainers owners or what have you.This horse has won 3 gold cups and has won 4 times from 5 on his seasonal re appearance.And was 2 from 2 at exeter.Granted i was alttle concerned when they came over the last and Seebald headed him,But if you watched the race it took him strides to get back up.

I will back odds on when i feel that there is value.We both know that the traits that lie in so many vdw good things were apparent in Best Mate yesterday.Yes i may have jumped in a bit yesterday but you pays your money,You takes your chance.This time it paid off.

Investor,

Without wishing to push the issue, your view on this one race has seemingly changed tack throughout the course of discussion.

Firstly, and most importantly, you imply prior to the off that ‘first time out’ would not be a problem for Best Mate, but state afterwards that it was the only factor that stopped him being a racing certainty. I can’t help but think that had Best Mate won by a country mile you wouldn’t have held the same view, indeed I suspect that he would have, in your opinion, been a ‘racing certainty’.

After the race you state that he was there to do a job, and did it like the class animal that he is, but then concede that you may have ‘jumped in a bit’ yesterday?

It matters little what ones views are after the race other than to confirm to oneself if his/her judgment prior to the race was accurate or not. I only made a point of posting my view on Best Mate in order that I could comfortably enter discussion afterwards.

The nov chase run over the same distance a little later was won in a time 2 secs quicker than the 225.

BM was there to be beaten.

JIB,

Correct, that is also why they didnt have that nasty Mr McCoy aboard,hitting their lovely horse with that horrid little Stick thingy.

Where does the future lie? This is the problem now faced, A downturn by just beating Sir rembrandt and a further downturn by only just touching off Seebald. It will be quite some time, from a CVDW point of view, before it can be supported again. Hen,pet, had better listen to Jim and get some runs into it.

Saturday, November 20.

The day to look at VDW type selections.

In the top race of the day, my selection, Ederon Bleu, seems to be a non-runner, but as I made this the classical "no-bet race", it doesn't matter much.
The other two I had on the short-list, but not worthy of a bet, were Hand In Hand and Upgrade.
Just too many negatives for me.

OK, we switch to Aintree, where I have just about made a betting selection:

220 Aintree, £20.6K class C Hcp Chs 2m 5.5f

FOREST GUNNER 9/1 3rd fav about 11 am.

A terrible weight and I've never heard of the jockey. Must place, I feel.


Now, here's my real, unfettered, bet of the day, though not much of a price:

305 Windsor, Colliers Court.

Lee
The reason i say i may have jumped in is because it was his re appearrance.I still hold the view that he had the traits of a racing certainty,And i know that YOU know what i mean.I would not have classed him has a racing certainty if he had won by a country mile for the reason i have already given.And whilst your on the board,I will say to you that if you are trying to imply that B.M didn't carry the factors that are evident then you are trying to pull the wool over someones eyes.

Jib
"B.M was there to be beaten" but he wasn't was he.

P.Kboy
A lot of people held that same view when he was beaten by Jair du cochet last year,Unfortunately that horse got killed so we never know how good he could have been.I can understand the concern,But seebald was clearly in form albeit coming from a shorter trip and carrying a stone more in weight.It will be interesting to see what nicchols and pipey do with there 2 judging by the outcome of that particular race.

B.C
Using the 3 factors i layed out for seanrua
12.45 ain FOOTBALL CRAZY

1.35 win TIKRAM

1.20 ain CHAUVANIST

1.45 naas CENTRAL HOUSE

1.50 ain HAUTICAN

1.55 hunt PERSIAN WATERS

Never seen this many before,But i'm struggling to find anyting solid.

B.C
Bloody hell there's another one

1.25 hunt NAPOLITAIN

Investor,

Its a fine line that must be drawn between an apparent good thing and the betting decision. Your Seebald analysis says it all really. the defeat last year would not have swayed many, only the gullible, in fact I gave it free for Xmas, as one of two racing certainties some five or six days before the next victory.

Investor,

My post was that anyone backing Best Mate must be mad, and my stance on that hasn’t changed.

Consistent in the highest class, but there’s more to VDW and racing than that. First of all, why was the horse entered? Was BM placed to win? – NO, we ALL know when and where that will be. Should BM have won? Of course he should.

Would it have mattered if BM had lost yesterday? – NO, not the be all and end all, and is part of the reason why VDW wouldn’t have touched it.

Pkboy,

I think you’re looking at things from the wrong angle. Neither the Gold Cup nor yesterday’s race was a downturn in form for Best Mate. The fact that Sir Rembrandt got close on the big day but failed to feature yesterday could be for many different reasons, which cannot be quantified accurately enough to be certain of the answer – however, JIB has pointed out one.

Sir Rembrandt, like most in the race, would have been primed for the Gold Cup. First Gold made it a test, which was ideal for SR, whilst BM had some traffic problems where it mattered but was classy enough to over come the loss of a few lengths and score as expected in the highest class of all.

Yesterday BM was ran close by Seebald giving some weight away on his seasonal bow. Seebald had a race under his belt and had previously shown good heart in a good race. Best Mate was once again expected to win, and although close, win he did maintaining consistency when factors were against him. However, it still doesn’t alter the fact that come the Cheltenham Gold Cup his win over Seebald is a positive in his form line. Even if he’d been touched off, it may still be a positive, depending what he does and against what in the Ericsson.

Next time out will again be a watching brief, but what the horse does, and against what, will be most crucial.

Lee,

I agree that I may not just be playing the numbers game.

What if its spitting over in Ireland, come the next test, and he doesnt run. Are you seriously suggesting that he would be taking the necessary credentials to the table that would enable him to win the gold cup?

Lee
Just because i have a different view on yesterday's race,Or played in yestredays race does not mean i'm mad.Of course i'm aware that best mate is going for his 4th gold cup and that he is being prepared for that particular race.But because he is backed along the way doesn't constitute him being backed as madness.I remember once before you gave a view on a horse i was backing and that won aswell.Although i respect your advice and knowledge on this subject if i feel there are good grounds for backing a particular horse then that is what i'll do.You may think i'm mad,but my pocket says otherwise.

Pkboy,

barring accidents Best Mate WILL run again before the Gold Cup, but you've brought in to the fold a very important part of the method which ensures that one is looking for the winner in the race, and not of the race.

If Best Mate wasn't, for some reason, able to run again then I doubt the form of yesterday would hold up, when compared to the likely opposition that he will be facing. That doesn't mean he won't win, just not enough evidence to say he will.

He may win again in Ireland, but only when we have the race card for cheltenham, and know what he's beat in Ireland, and how he beat them, will we know if it's good enough to back. Only if improvement is shown will the form of yesterday come in to the equation, which is positive.

Investor,

I'm not interested in what you've got in your pockets. Of course everyone has an opinion, which is just as well otherwise there would be no market. If you backed Best Mate yesterday then in my opinion you were mad to do so.

Lee
Well in that case,I enjoy being mad.It's not as bad as people say.

Senrua
Well done with Forest Gunner,Iv'e got my fingers crossed for colliers court.

JIB

Jib
Enough to make it worthwhile,And it hasn't burst into flames yet. What about your return from Made in Japan has that gone up in smoke.I doubt it.