Congrats again to Mtoto on his winner, Azamour.

Though it doesn't matter in the slightest, I'm not totally convinced that Az was a pure VDW selection:

I quote from Charlie Anderson :

"
last three form figures must add up to no more than a total of five
we are looking for consistent horses nothing else. (see below*) e.g.
1st=1, 2nd=2, 3rd=3 up to 9th=9 and 0=10.

never back a horse that has not shown form at the distance being run
today, this applies only to its last three races any other form
cannot be judged as valid.what do I mean by showing form? I hear you
ask, showing form means being placed in the first three at the
distance in one of the horses last three races."

----
Today's RP says, "Yesterday was Azamour's first attempt ata mile and a quarter".

Trainer J Oxx said:
" We always thought he would stay the distance, but you can never be sure until a horse is tested."

Going into the race, the three "recent" form figures were 321 (one more than the maximum 5), and the horse hadn't run for 88 days.

Ideas have to be flexible, I guess.

mtoto, good to see your posts well done with picking azamour, which speed figures do you prefer, stopwatch, split second, i have been trying to contact you via email, do you have new email address thanks, grundy

3.05 Good Gp3 3yo+ 29,000

The most likely winner for me in this one is MUQBIL,A highly progressive type that is open to further improvement.Again this is the type that i usually support.Has all the ticks in the rght boxes.Good consistent form,Infact he posseses all of the attributes given in vdw's equation.He has an ab rating of 123 but has shown form in much higher class,Disposing of Vespose which has an ab rating of 674 and was seen lto in the arlington million finishing last.Muqbil was again stepped up in class lto but showed improvement in the race and today dropped.Salselon is clearly a danger but hasn't shown a great deal above a mile.I personally feel that Muqbil is a vdw type but would have been rejected on price,Having said that 2/1 5/2 would be acceptable for me.Good luck to all who play.

ILLUSION IN FORM.

I won't give the horse just yet.Form figs 043.Ran at Goodwood 3 times winning twice and 3rd lto.20th may goodwood class 174 over 1 mile 2f winning by a nk on gd/fm.Lto 30th june Goodwd class 174 over 1 mile 4 f finished 3rd btn 6.25 lgs.

So basically Treggoning puts the horse over a trip he's never tried before on today's track and the horse finishes 3rd showing decent form.He then drops the horse back over his optimum distance 1 mile 2 fwhich he is proven at and on the same course.Clever buggers these trainers,Again i must re.itereate every angle must be looked at.Muqbil was too short for me,But if he hadn't have been i would have given the bookies my money in that race.Having said all that i don't think this would have been a vdw bet but he would have certainly have added to the conflict.So it's 100 lines for me,I'll start now must look harder,Must look harder,Must look harder Must look harder Speak to you tomorrow.Must look harder,Ms look harder.

Ratings no good today; 7 ran, and Salselon was a shorthead out of the placings, 5 lengths ahead of Muqbil.

Tregoning is the right trainer for this course and his animal was CD.
When one of his shorten from a tissue price of 10/1 to 11/2, I say it's time to take note.
Dunno what VDW says about this sort of thing.

I didn't see the race or the betting, but I get the impression Salselon was a bit one-paced and couldn't make up ground.
Fallon and Cumani aren't the best at Goodwood.
Perhaps they'll try elsewhere.

Muqbil? Dunno. Dunlop is no good at his local track, and I'm no fan of the jockey, but it doesn't seem like much of a performance.
Did anyone see the race?

I note that this disappointing fav. shared "non-gambling" ownership with the winner. Ahemm.

Ah well, Massey had the winner as 2nd top-rated.

Thank you, Investor, for putting up a selection. To my eyes, Muqbil was a VDW type - selection-wise if nothing else.

Investor dont wring your hands over something so common to us all: a loser.

Muqbil and Battle Chant were Donkey registered horses but I made both no bets. The former because I thought that it must have peaked during its recent efforts and needed a rest. And the latter because the conditions were not its ideal, that it came 2nd could well be v v interesting if it finally gets ideal conditions and is upped in class.

Investor,

I have looked everywhere for this horse with form figures of 043 and have found 23 at todays cards. What is its name? Simple question really mate.

Barney
Jeremy Paxman Eh,I think your taking the p but i did omit the horses name but for those that are interested it was of course Alkadheem.

Cheers investor,

But what time was the race? and what course was it at? simple question really mate?

while your at it, what day is today? do you have the right time? and can you spare a fag Gov? simple questions really mate.

Jib
losers i can cope with mate,It's when i get tunnel vision on one horse instead of looking at all the possible dangers.I think you were right re Muqbil with your comment about the last race,Having said that i think something must have happened for the horse to drop away so tamelyhe'd had a decent rest so i dunno,It will be interesting to read the comments tomorrow.

So there were only non-selections today(?) I guess they're equally worth recording. I'll start tomorrow (and backlog) if my enthusiasm lasts that long.

Rab,

When looking at the top class races i'm not that interested in how a horse has been placed in the past. The only consideration is, is this horse good enough to win this race? For me the only way to judge that is by looking at the races it has competed in and against what class. I work on the principal the horse will be fit and trying why else would it be entered. Once I am happy it is good enough to hold it's own in the class, other considerations are looked at. It is the horse I study not the trainer, jockey, trends, etc.

With the lower class races questions have to be asked, like why this race? There are a few horses I term as plot horses and with these the trainer does come into it a lot more. Most of these plot horses are horses that have pasted my first requirement so they have proven class. The trainer/owner has decided not to push this horse up in class and it appears to be inconsistent. In truth they are not inconsistent and they perform as and when they need to. King Harson is one of these, he could hold is own in better class races but is seldom tried. A recent example of this horse was at Chester, low draw (front runner) weak C handicap. Don't see how it could have been planned but the trainer knows what the horse is capable off. Ignored by the form pundits bingo, backed from 16/1 to 11/1 (on the exchanges) wins by 3 lengths. Comes out 7 days later, dropped in class, think it finished last!.

JIB,

I don't think I have ever said you shouldn't give your reasons for backing/selecting your horses. Most if not all your reasoning can be traced by everyday public knowledge, ie. Trainer jockey stats, breeding stats, etc. These can be found by anyone at the click of a mouse, (not that it detracts from their usefulness) but they are avalible to the public.

JohnD,

When I have selected a horse, it is because I think that horse conforms to and is the best VDW example in the race. Of course that is only my opinion, and others may disagree. That doesn't change the fact that I see this horse as the horse that follows VDW formula and has all the attributes needed to win. When looking at the race on Sat I had to make a decision about Doyen. Where all the pundits, and Godolphin, correct with their thinking that putting a pacemaker in the race would help him. I thought not, and that was an important part of my reasoning for rejecting him. I have many such theories about racing, and they are my edge.

Seanrua,

Have to admit I don't know who Charlie Anderson is, although the name does seem familiar. I don't know where Mr Anderson's ideas came from, but they do seem to be at odds with VDW's.

In the first example The Erin the selection was Prominent King form figures of 422. In another early example the selection was Rifle Brigade, his race was over 12f and he had never won, or run over that distance.

I'm sure Mr Anderson, like Mr Bingham was only trying to be helpful. That doesn't change the fact that they are also changing the methods.

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

You misunderstood me. Ater naming an 8/1 winner before the off, you said you would neverdo so again because someone like TC made free use of it.

I only wanted you to explain the reasoning behind your attitude as value is much more a personal appreciation rather than an intrinsic quality, and perhaps I had missed some important argument against that old time waster of civilization: pooling ones knowlege.

Afterall I would hate to think I had wasted all these years contributing to Gummys' forum wasting all my time and effort on a bunch of undeserving bums.

Mtoto

The Class C 2.35G was won by Texas gold and i thought it was the trainers placing of the horse that helped me pick it,W Muir now has a s/r of 10/69 and 40 points profit in handicaps,I know this is not the answer to solving races but it is a good help,
You could have picked it by its last run coming from a low draw at Donny and getting beat in a photo to Halmahera,
I also thought the betting was strange with TG drifting and money for Mystic man,(K Ryan 0/19 at Goodwood)

I will watch the top class races in future and see if the trainers placings can help as for the lower class it does help to finding a few winners,

Good luck,Rab

JIB-

be a bugger if I admited to making "Free Use" of your "Donkey Register" - wouldn't it !!

Yes I do - and thanks Mate !!

I might get around to making a VDW list of the quick 2yos this season - Should I play "Dog in a Manger" ??

"Do as you would be done by" - sez I !!

Mtoto,
Thank you for your reply.

The little I know about VDW comes from the following page sent in by Gummy:

"Gummy
Admin
Member


posted October 23, 2001 11:58 PM
Thanks to Marchwood for this posting on VDW I will also put it on the VDW page on the site.
Here are some thoughts which I collected from a very much
respected VDW supporter. Maybe it should be stressed
that as VDW was not a systems man but a man of methods
many devotees use his methods and adapt them to suit their
own means thus creating their own systems!

This is what VDW is saying: Logical reasoning will lead you
to arrive at numerous sound methodical ideas and any normal
racing fan can devise his own path to success using the abundance
of data available.

Charlie Anderson who was one of the principal
contributors to the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book and
Raceform Update's Sports Forums. Here is his advice:-

ignore:
*******
2 year olds.
Fillies.
races below grade C
races for 3 year olds only.
maidens of any type.
mad hair brained systems from the pack of rogues out there,
tipsters and telephone lines, none of these people would be selling
tips etc if they had a winning method,would you?.

things to do if you are looking for success!:
*******************************
look at the highest value races of the day, Group races and grades
A, B, & C only, and try to confine your bets to the top class races
at each meeting, basing class on VDW's rating system mentioned below..

never ever back a horse that has not won at least one of its last
three races and was placed in the other two.

last three form figures must add up to no more than a total of five
we are looking for consistent horses nothing else. (see below*) e.g.
1st=1, 2nd=2, 3rd=3 up to 9th=9 and 0=10.

never back a horse that has not shown form at the distance being run
today, this applies only to its last three races any other form
cannot be judged as valid.what do I mean by showing form? I hear you
ask, showing form means being placed in the first three at the
distance in one of the horses last three races.

never back a horse that has not shown form with today's weight or
more in its last three races, again showing form means placed in the
first three.

look for horses down in class in today's race, use vdw class rating
to arrive at this figure, i.e. today's race worth 10,500 pounds class
= 105(delete last two figures) last race worth 25,000 pounds class
= 250, the horse is well down in class,also remember to rate all
runners
on a last race class basis using the same method you can then see how
your possible selection rates against the rest of the field.

*The only last three outings that Charlie Anderson is suggesting are
as
follows: 111=3; 112=4; 113=5; 121=4; 131=5; 122=5; 221=5;
212=5; 311=5.

Please note: All of the above does not conform strictly with VDW
methodology and you will see some horses in VDW examples whose
form figures do not correspond. However, it appears to be usually
accepted that this was the type of thinking that was in VDW's mind.

But this is certainly VDW methodology:
please will you all focus your minds on the job in hand and not go
down tracks which make your brains boil and confuse the issue
remember what we are trying to find is good consistent horses which
have the class, form, ability and history to win today's event.

MARCHWOOD FEELS THAT THIS IS A GREAT STARTING
POINT - ALSO REMEMBER VDW STATED IN MARCH 1979
IN REPLY TO A LETTER FROM G. HALL:-

'The method I gave produces 85% to 90% winners Flat and
jumps, year in and year out" He as usual stresses "I know in the
N.H. season there can be long waits. There are of course days
during the flat when nothing can be found and there is no point in
trying to find what is not there" Many people look upon this
statement which VDW calls 'Temperament' as the missing link
or the Key!

Marchwood

Gummy
Admin
Member


posted October 23, 2001 11:58 PM
Thanks to Marchwood for this posting on VDW I will also put it on the VDW page on the site.
Here are some thoughts which I collected from a very much
respected VDW supporter. Maybe it should be stressed
that as VDW was not a systems man but a man of methods
many devotees use his methods and adapt them to suit their
own means thus creating their own systems!

This is what VDW is saying: Logical reasoning will lead you
to arrive at numerous sound methodical ideas and any normal
racing fan can devise his own path to success using the abundance
of data available.

Charlie Anderson who was one of the principal
contributors to the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book and
Raceform Update's Sports Forums. Here is his advice:-

ignore:
*******
2 year olds.
Fillies.
races below grade C
races for 3 year olds only.
maidens of any type.
mad hair brained systems from the pack of rogues out there,
tipsters and telephone lines, none of these people would be selling
tips etc if they had a winning method,would you?.

things to do if you are looking for success!:
*******************************
look at the highest value races of the day, Group races and grades
A, B, & C only, and try to confine your bets to the top class races
at each meeting, basing class on VDW's rating system mentioned below..

never ever back a horse that has not won at least one of its last
three races and was placed in the other two.

last three form figures must add up to no more than a total of five
we are looking for consistent horses nothing else. (see below*) e.g.
1st=1, 2nd=2, 3rd=3 up to 9th=9 and 0=10.

never back a horse that has not shown form at the distance being run
today, this applies only to its last three races any other form
cannot be judged as valid.what do I mean by showing form? I hear you
ask, showing form means being placed in the first three at the
distance in one of the horses last three races.

never back a horse that has not shown form with today's weight or
more in its last three races, again showing form means placed in the
first three.

look for horses down in class in today's race, use vdw class rating
to arrive at this figure, i.e. today's race worth 10,500 pounds class
= 105(delete last two figures) last race worth 25,000 pounds class
= 250, the horse is well down in class,also remember to rate all
runners
on a last race class basis using the same method you can then see how
your possible selection rates against the rest of the field.

*The only last three outings that Charlie Anderson is suggesting are
as
follows: 111=3; 112=4; 113=5; 121=4; 131=5; 122=5; 221=5;
212=5; 311=5.

Please note: All of the above does not conform strictly with VDW
methodology and you will see some horses in VDW examples whose
form figures do not correspond. However, it appears to be usually
accepted that this was the type of thinking that was in VDW's mind.

But this is certainly VDW methodology:
please will you all focus your minds on the job in hand and not go
down tracks which make your brains boil and confuse the issue
remember what we are trying to find is good consistent horses which
have the class, form, ability and history to win today's event.

MARCHWOOD FEELS THAT THIS IS A GREAT STARTING
POINT - ALSO REMEMBER VDW STATED IN MARCH 1979
IN REPLY TO A LETTER FROM G. HALL:-

'The method I gave produces 85% to 90% winners Flat and
jumps, year in and year out" He as usual stresses "I know in the
N.H. season there can be long waits. There are of course days
during the flat when nothing can be found and there is no point in
trying to find what is not there" Many people look upon this
statement which VDW calls 'Temperament' as the missing link
or the Key!

Marchwood

Gummy
Admin
Member


posted October 23, 2001 11:58 PM
Thanks to Marchwood for this posting on VDW I will also put it on the VDW page on the site.
Here are some thoughts which I collected from a very much
respected VDW supporter. Maybe it should be stressed
that as VDW was not a systems man but a man of methods
many devotees use his methods and adapt them to suit their
own means thus creating their own systems!

This is what VDW is saying: Logical reasoning will lead you
to arrive at numerous sound methodical ideas and any normal
racing fan can devise his own path to success using the abundance
of data available.

Charlie Anderson who was one of the principal
contributors to the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book and
Raceform Update's Sports Forums. Here is his advice:-

ignore:
*******
2 year olds.
Fillies.
races below grade C
races for 3 year olds only.
maidens of any type.
mad hair brained systems from the pack of rogues out there,
tipsters and telephone lines, none of these people would be selling
tips etc if they had a winning method,would you?.

things to do if you are looking for success!:
*******************************
look at the highest value races of the day, Group races and grades
A, B, & C only, and try to confine your bets to the top class races
at each meeting, basing class on VDW's rating system mentioned below..

never ever back a horse that has not won at least one of its last
three races and was placed in the other two.

last three form figures must add up to no more than a total of five
we are looking for consistent horses nothing else. (see below*) e.g.
1st=1, 2nd=2, 3rd=3 up to 9th=9 and 0=10.

never back a horse that has not shown form at the distance being run
today, this applies only to its last three races any other form
cannot be judged as valid.what do I mean by showing form? I hear you
ask, showing form means being placed in the first three at the
distance in one of the horses last three races.

never back a horse that has not shown form with today's weight or
more in its last three races, again showing form means placed in the
first three.

look for horses down in class in today's race, use vdw class rating
to arrive at this figure, i.e. today's race worth 10,500 pounds class
= 105(delete last two figures) last race worth 25,000 pounds class
= 250, the horse is well down in class,also remember to rate all
runners
on a last race class basis using the same method you can then see how
your possible selection rates against the rest of the field.

*The only last three outings that Charlie Anderson is suggesting are
as
follows: 111=3; 112=4; 113=5; 121=4; 131=5; 122=5; 221=5;
212=5; 311=5.

Please note: All of the above does not conform strictly with VDW
methodology and you will see some horses in VDW examples whose
form figures do not correspond. However, it appears to be usually
accepted that this was the type of thinking that was in VDW's mind.

But this is certainly VDW methodology:
please will you all focus your minds on the job in hand and not go
down tracks which make your brains boil and confuse the issue
remember what we are trying to find is good consistent horses which
have the class, form, ability and history to win today's event.

MARCHWOOD FEELS THAT THIS IS A GREAT STARTING
POINT - ALSO REMEMBER VDW STATED IN MARCH 1979
IN REPLY TO A LETTER FROM G. HALL:-

'The method I gave produces 85% to 90% winners Flat and
jumps, year in and year out" He as usual stresses "I know in the
N.H. season there can be long waits. There are of course days
during the flat when nothing can be found and there is no point in
trying to find what is not there" Many people look upon this
statement which VDW calls 'Temperament' as the missing link
or the Key!

Marchwood

Gummy
Admin
Member


posted October 23, 2001 11:58 PM
Thanks to Marchwood for this posting on VDW I will also put it on the VDW page on the site.
Here are some thoughts which I collected from a very much
respected VDW supporter. Maybe it should be stressed
that as VDW was not a systems man but a man of methods
many devotees use his methods and adapt them to suit their
own means thus creating their own systems!

This is what VDW is saying: Logical reasoning will lead you
to arrive at numerous sound methodical ideas and any normal
racing fan can devise his own path to success using the abundance
of data available.

Charlie Anderson who was one of the principal
contributors to the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book and
Raceform Update's Sports Forums. Here is his advice:-

ignore:
*******
2 year olds.
Fillies.
races below grade C
races for 3 year olds only.
maidens of any type.
mad hair brained systems from the pack of rogues out there,
tipsters and telephone lines, none of these people would be selling
tips etc if they had a winning method,would you?.

things to do if you are looking for success!:
*******************************
look at the highest value races of the day, Group races and grades
A, B, & C only, and try to confine your bets to the top class races
at each meeting, basing class on VDW's rating system mentioned below..

never ever back a horse that has not won at least one of its last
three races and was placed in the other two.

last three form figures must add up to no more than a total of five
we are looking for consistent horses nothing else. (see below*) e.g.
1st=1, 2nd=2, 3rd=3 up to 9th=9 and 0=10.

never back a horse that has not shown form at the distance being run
today, this applies only to its last three races any other form
cannot be judged as valid.what do I mean by showing form? I hear you
ask, showing form means being placed in the first three at the
distance in one of the horses last three races.

never back a horse that has not shown form with today's weight or
more in its last three races, again showing form means placed in the
first three.

look for horses down in class in today's race, use vdw class rating
to arrive at this figure, i.e. today's race worth 10,500 pounds class
= 105(delete last two figures) last race worth 25,000 pounds class
= 250, the horse is well down in class,also remember to rate all
runners
on a last race class basis using the same method you can then see how
your possible selection rates against the rest of the field.

*The only last three outings that Charlie Anderson is suggesting are
as
follows: 111=3; 112=4; 113=5; 121=4; 131=5; 122=5; 221=5;
212=5; 311=5.

Please note: All of the above does not conform strictly with VDW
methodology and you will see some horses in VDW examples whose
form figures do not correspond. However, it appears to be usually
accepted that this was the type of thinking that was in VDW's mind.

But this is certainly VDW methodology:
please will you all focus your minds on the job in hand and not go
down tracks which make your brains boil and confuse the issue
remember what we are trying to find is good consistent horses which
have the class, form, ability and history to win today's event.

MARCHWOOD FEELS THAT THIS IS A GREAT STARTING
POINT - ALSO REMEMBER VDW STATED IN MARCH 1979
IN REPLY TO A LETTER FROM G. HALL:-

'The method I gave produces 85% to 90% winners Flat and
jumps, year in and year out" He as usual stresses "I know in the
N.H. season there can be long waits. There are of course days
during the flat when nothing can be found and there is no point in
trying to find what is not there" Many people look upon this
statement which VDW calls 'Temperament' as the missing link
or the Key!

Marchwood "...


There now. That's what I've been working from!

Woops!

Sorry it printed twice.

TRY and GET the BEES back IN?

would you mind posting your comments on this race somewhere else as you made no mention of it pre race on this thread.

Take your shovel over to the donkeys.