Some of you boys deserve a pat on the back this thread is starting to open up a bit more. VDW mentioned once that the change of jockey was a significant one.
Im wondering why this was the case?. He also spoke of dead weight in the saddle.
Would it be useful to know the riding weight of each jockey flat & jumps at all?.And is this information available anywhere on a weekly or monthly basis to the average punter?.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: walter pigeon,

wp - watch Stoute - he is quite happy to "jock off " - Fallon - if he can't make the weight !!

Thats twice in the week that he has done so - pointed it out both times !

yes the info is availible - but you have to commit a miserable - £1.20 daily - to the paper version of the R.Post !!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

That would rule me out then top cat im Bio`s original Victor Meldrew lol.

Investor,

I didn't really think it was brave to take on Doyen, he was well held on my ratings. I don't do laying in a big way, I leave that to my son. I maybe looking at it from the wrong perspective but I would much prefer to lay an odds on shot than anything at a bigger price. Which is the better bet an even money shot to win beating the field or the field running for you? Of course finding good reasons why the horse can't win is a big help. I wouldn't have laid Soviet Song at any price.

You asked if Doyen and Grey Swallow were form horses, the answer has to be yes along with others in the race. Unlike some have with the Erin I didn't make any horse out of form, it was just some were more likely than others to run their race.

TC,

Pleased it won for you, but that is one of the main reasons I don't put up horses. My aim is to try to understand how VDW worked, and putting up my selection doesn't help anyone. All it was is a selection by Mtoto, based on my ideas of how VDW worked. I would like to think it would have been a VDW selection, but we will never know. You knock folk for talking about races (whether or not they said they had backed it). All I, and others are trying to do is help. That horse was found using the method I have tried to explain in the past. The profile was there, as it is in other horses I have mentioned. Ok some were mentioned after the race, but that doesn't change the profile it is still there. An example of this is Grey Swallow when it beat North Light, in fact if you look at both races it is still there. No, I'm not saying I backed GS to win. There are many examples, the profiles are still there in fact they always will be. That is why the old races are examined, and talked about. Far too many think that race is over, on to the next.

Even though I posted pre race I have no intention of explaining the reasons why I thought it was a bet. That is not to say I won't help anyone who has put in a bit of work.

Boozer,

Just to say thanks for your help. Dataform is down, it has been all week. Without your help I would have been struggling to get through the races at Doncaster. Thought you summed up the reason for the selection very well.

Be Lucky

mtoto -

quote:

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Even though I posted pre race I have no intention of explaining the reasons why I thought it was a bet. That is not to say I won't help anyone who has put in a bit of work

---

I put up "Colisay" - pre race - and I gave my reasons for doing so !!

Does - Your selection of a "Winner" have more value than - mine - simply because - it is an "unsubtantiated" - VDW selection ??

If I chose - I could have - simply put up my selection (as did pipedreamer - who I respect) - and then claimed - post race - like you - that my selection was down to some - vdw -knowledge that - only I was party to !!!

Your post caused me to look at a race that in the normal course of events (as I said) I would not consider - and the Jockey /Trainer combination - "Stood out like a sore thumb" !!! - an EW bet to nothing !!! at 8/1 !!

Colisay had a "Profile" that I Liked - as did Calcutta - Lost soldier three - Big bad bob - Distinction - Secret charm and Tagula Sunrise !!

But then the races are over and there is no point in talking about them !!

I am happy to put up - before the off - and to give my reasons!!

If I get "egg on my face" then so be it -

Sorry but I found your post to me - "patronising"

quote:

---

Pleased it won for you, but that is one of the main reasons I don't put up horses. My aim is to try to understand how VDW worked, and putting up my selection doesn't help anyone. All it was is a selection by Mtoto, based on my ideas of how VDW worked. I would like to think it would have been a VDW selection, but we will never know. You knock folk for talking about races (whether or not they said they had backed it). All I, and others are trying to do is help. That horse was found using the method I have tried to explain in the past. The profile was there, as it is in other horses I have mentioned

---

that tells me - or anyone else little or "Nothing"

Are you trying to drive people away from this Thread ???

--------

At least - re. ratings -

we may have some agreement - but - wot ? - Speed ???

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Barney

My e-mail address is gf004e4912@blueyonder.co.uk

barmy - wots yours ???

Mine - has "ALWAYS" been in my "Public Profile" !!!

WALTER,

Re' jockeys natural riding weights, if you are interested I can post up the weights of the top 10 - 20 jockeys.

MTOTO,

Well done with Azamour. Looks like you remain on top of the game.

Looks - like - "BULLSHIT" - is the - "name of the game"

Progress the "Thread" !!!

PER - LEEZE !!!!

Hi - JIB

Any better ???

Bastard - innit !!

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Determined great to hear from you where you been m8 hope you are well.
By all means put them up!.

BC,

Kasthari had the look of principally being a place money runner. The place price on BF I regarded as highly indicative of that. The fact that it dead heated is possible more negative for Millenary than positive for our hurdler.

The poor horse has blown his cover now!

TC,

Sorry if you think my post was/is patronising. That was the last thing on my mind. What I was trying to do was to get you to look at the horses that I have mentioned. Every horse has the same type of profile, even if you go back through my other pre race selections (yes there are a few). The profile is the same, it is even the same as the first VDW selection Prominent King.

It has nothing to do with the trainer/jockey it is all based on the horse and what it has achieved. Way back in this thread I explained I wasn't happy with the a/rating as VDW explained in his later letters. Yes, my ability rating is based on speed, but I have said it isn't just the bare s/f. If it was Doyen would have been the selection, he had the best figure. Doyen was the 4th rated for me in that race. The top rated was Rakti, but that had nothing to do with being a distance winner, and he was only the 3rd fastest in the race.

Interesting you mentioned 4 horses that passed my first requirement for consideration, Colisay, Big Bad Bob, Calcutta, and Distinction. It went no further, because they lacked consistency. In saying that Colisay was in the lowest 3 in the c/rating and the horse most VDW followers seemed to like (Bone Crusher) wasn't considered. I feel there is a big difference using information that is in the public sector is used, and reasons given. If you had to work for many hours to get that knowledge would you broadcast it on a public forum? If you wanted it I think by reading my posts and thinking about them you would gain an understanding of how I work. If you were then to ask questions about these horses, and I could see you had an understanding of how they were found. I could/would answer any and all questions you asked, you would understand the answers without giving everything away to all in sundry.

There were 3 other horses that won at Doncaster that had all the factors needed to be sound bets. I'm not saying I backed all of them, just they are there. Found using the formula VDW used consistent form + ability +, etc. Nothing to do with jockeys, trends, etc.

I hope this is read, and taken in the way it is meant, an offer of help and in no way meant to be patronising. I do think if you had spent the hours working on this (or any other money making idea) you would not be happy just to give it all away.

Be Lucky

Having been laid low by an anopheles mosquito I certainly missed an interesting day.

First of all well done Mtoto, at the moment Im too astounded to pay due reverence. But perhaps you could tell me why I shouldnt put up the reasons for my selections?

Perhaps I ve still got a touch of delerium here but Barmy seems terrified by the idea of putting up his 'selections'. Because of the change in prosperity perhaps hes worried about us moving into the council flat next door.

TC, Good man. Well Done!

Mtoto

Just 1 question for you,

Do you ever look at how trainers place their horses?,

Only two races worth consideration today, both at Goodwood.
In the 2.35, Two Step Kid is the best horse in the race by some way. Also comes out of highest class, where he ran a blinder on the 'wrong side' to be beaten only by a subsequent group race winner.
The sharp 6f is ideal, unless it rains the fast ground should be perfect, the problem is the 6 weeks absence, which is too much of a worry to consider a bet.
Texas Gold was just touched of in a decent race lto, but this is over further, which, in his case, could be a problem.

The gp3 race is a bit of a dog's breakfast, Vespone has the best form in the race and comes out of the highest lto class where he was well beaten. His previous form is nothing to write home about though, and he seems to have developed a quirk this season.
Salselon (IMO) is a horse who needs fast ground to show his best, and if he gets it, looks the likely winner. A long way from being a bet though,

Mtoto.
Congratulations on your winner.
Nobody is asking you to share everything, but it is in this thread's interest to give some of your pre-race reasoning, and I can't believe your approach is that shallow that you can't do that without all the Fulhamesque tripe.

Jib
Nice to see you back.

I'm going to keep track of all selections that are posted on this thread as "VDW" bets, "good things", or similarly indicative phrases but I will ignore those without a time and meeting (can you imagine on any system testing thread if someone wrote "today's selections are...." then only gave the horses' names, so why is it considered acceptable here?). This exercise will only really be worthwhile if those who disagree with the VDWness of a selection point out their view before the off, any post-race explanations for loss will be ignored by me and the horse will be entered in the record as an uncontested VDW selection. Dont be shy about doubting a horse, if it in fact wins the relevence of the type of doubt expressed will get it's perspective, so incorrect doubts are as important as correct ones. Anyone with confidence in their selection is encouraged to post even if the selection isn't stictly VDW, although it would be nice if this is mentioned I dont want to end up with some silly situation where selections are graded by VDWness, 30% VDW or the like. I'm not going to consider any multiples as "when everything lines up such horses are seldom beaten" implies win singles.

Promoted 24 hours ago, and already a despot!

Johnd: Forgive my arrogance in assuming you mean me and my petty tyranny in insisting on time and venue. Take your post above as an example, you wrote "the gp3", that's a saving of one character's effort compared with writing the time. Mtoto wrote something like "the big one today", this is much longer than writing the initial of the meeting and it's time, so what's the point of this? "The big one today" means nothing, I looked through the results of Doncaster and Goodwood twice trying to find his horse, then I tried the other meetings, Irish results aren't listed either at GG or the Post so it's inconsiderate and thoroughly ill-mannered to post nonsense like "the big one today" and there's no rationale beyond head wanking as far as I can see.

Sun, Sept 12.

305 Goodwood, £29K 3yo Grp 3, A1, 10f.

RP Betting Forecast
Muqbil 6/4 3pts
Salselon 5/2 2pts
Vespone 9/2 1pt.

OR
Salselon 118 3
Muqbil 114 2
Vespone 112 1


Best RPR
Muq 134 3
Sal 134 3
Vesp 133 2

UK Earnings per race
Sal 3
Muq 2
Vesp 1

Total Win Prize Money
Vesp 3
Sal 2
Others -


Latest Topspeed
Muq 130 3
Other 119 -
Other 113 -

TSF
Vesp 3
Muq 2
Alk -

Massey
Sals 3
Alk -
Muq 1


All three contenders ran in a more expensive race last start.
All three have two ticks for recent form.

Muqbil and Alkaadhem are the only horses in the race that have ticks for Course and Distance.


TOTALS
Muqbil 16 points
Salselon 16 points
Vespone 11points.

Deadheat again!