Jib
The prince 121

Oceanica dot com 213

inchpast 211

You are wrong in your assumption that consistent horses don't win races,I'm sorry mate but you are.The above are just cons figures,But that's the area that needs to be explored.

Investor,

If you joined the forum completely you would save me a lot of work!

The Prince w4/1 was a named selection in my 'well in and well placed' thread that poor barny thinks is a 'pisstake' As the title of the thread suggests I think its previous placings are merely co-incidental.

The Strangest Pisstake Under The Sun

Investor,

Moors Myth -656 440R w7/2 for the exact same reason as The Prince.

It was the 2nd and last of the two selections on my 'well in and well placed' thread today

Seanrua,

I don't think the method failed with the 3:05 at Goodwood. The method properly applied pointed to a big doubt about the horse, many who are trying to make it into a system tripped up. The horse was well in with the c/rating, for all I know it was also well in with the VDW a/rating. For me the big doubt was the course, it is completely different to the course he had shown his best form on. Is this part of the VDW method, I think so? VDW mentions it more than once, the course is important. VDW gave 5 factors in his formula, to be a selection all 5 have to be in place. Perming 3/4 from 5 isn't good enough.

Barney will most probably give his reasons why he didn't think Doyen would cope with the drop in distance. It was one of reasons I didn't like Doyen's chances. My thinking was they would go to fast in the early stages, burning off his finishing kick. Nowhere in his career had he shown he had the speed to win a 10f race, let alone against some of the best. That is why I study the horse, the trainer's intention was to win the race of that there is no doubt. It is the horse that matters, not the trainer come the crunch. Reading Barney's post I think that is what he is also saying, don't back a horse dropping in distance unless it has shown it has the speed.

As you say it can be very hard to read the trainers intentions. Why did Dunlop run Muqbil at Goodwood, did he think even though the horse had failed on the track before he had the class to carry him through? Was it a failed attempt to win a race, a blow through, a trail for something else? What will you think if he does take his chance at Newbury on friday, will you say this horse is out of form, or he ran a fair race on a track that didn't suit? I will wait and see if he runs, and what runs against him.

I didn't expect Doyen to win on sat, but that would have done nothing to stop me considering him for the Arc. I find it strange there is talk of him not running again this season. If they make that decision there must be more to it than just that run at face value.

Be Lucky

Yes, I'm for the knacker's yard, Black Cat.

Not to worry; all I do nowadays is horseracing, so that's alright.

In fact, I should be a lot better at it than I am, but I'm learning!

HI Barney,

I didn't understand anything about the stick.

Could you help me with this "back in trip" stuff?

Thank you, Mtoto, for your reply.

I'm also of the opinion that appropriate course and distance are very important.

So are going and, in some cases, draw, I would think.

Again, I agree that the horse is of critical importance, but, we have to acknowledge that the animal doesn't decide f all about where or when it runs racewise.
This is all decided by humans, ie the Connections.

Thus, I have to say that I go along with JIB and Investor to a certain extent.

It will be interesting to see what Muqbil does next. Personally, I'll be keener on Salselon, though he didn't do very well lto.

Investor is also correct to label Tregoning's as a gambling stable, imo. He caught me out with that month he spent in the doldrums!

He's not alone. Even old Dunlop does it now and again!

If there are bills to pay and the horses havent been having the best of times.....

I think only H Cecil inherited a fortune and could train (and drink!) for fun. I see even Lord Heskeths' time has come and Towcesters (the whole estate in fact) up for sale.

Mtoto,

Muqbil wasnt a form horse.

Seanrua,

Its almost impossible to guide to the precise areas of VDW's work that will help to put that reasoning into context without knowing which booklets you have.

Sean,

Unfortunately I am unable to help you with your 'stick' enquirey to barny. I know how keen you are to get to the bottom of this but perhaps when Jd gets back on the board he might be able to understand the reference and hence supply you with an answer.

There are other serious vdwers (I am too incompetant at it to be of any use) but not all of them have the texts so well 'off' by heart. But Im sure someone will try and supply something understandable.

I have no booklets on VDW, Barney.

I rely entirely on that piece I mentioned by Gummy/Marchwood/ Charlie Anderson, together with anything else I glean from this thread.

At present, I'm looking into "class-droppers" (by race value) in handicaps, excluding sprints.

From my own experience, I value a change in distance - up or down - as a positive when it's done by trainers I rate.

Although I've been at this game for forty years, I don't think I quite understand the meaning of form, yet.

Charlie Anderson says:

"never back a horse that has not shown form at the distance being run
today, this applies only to its last three races any other form
cannot be judged as valid.

what do I mean by showing form? I hear you
ask, showing form means being placed in the first three at the
distance in one of the horses last three races."


Now Barney says: " Muqbil was not the form horse".

I (seanrua) note that Muqbil had the highest Best RPR and the highest Latest Topspeed figures.
His last three placings were 112.

Muqbil's last three races were at about the same distance as Sunday's race.

His last race was for £37.7K. Sunday's race was for £29K.

It was 36 days ago alright, and the winner's last start was 44 days ago.

I'm sure I don't know, but in my opinion the best horse in the race was Salselon - going on past performance.
He sure didn't run like it though, did he?!
The winner won, and it's onto the next for me.

Hi Seanrua

Sorry to hear that. If interested, you may obtain the booklets containing the letters of Mr. Van der Wheil at:

www.browzers.co.uk

Choose "catalog" and scroll to the bottom.

BlackCat

Is it me?

Charles Anderson... Che Van der Wheil...

Charles = Che

v AN DER wheil

Or use the v with 'eil' = veil (cover name?)

Oh I know, I know, doooooo shut up BlackCat.

You've got to laugh eh?!

seanrua,

leave it with me I will see what I can come up with.

I also said Muqbil was not "a" form horse. It may seem pedantic but its an important distinction to draw.

Thank you, Black Cat and Barney for your help.

What WAS VDW's real name?

Did he really commit suicide?

Seanrua
I think you may be confusing VDW with Jock Bingham in your last post.
Jib has put the onus on me to interpret Barney's doggerel, which is no straightforward task, but I would guess that he, (Barney), is indicating that trainer's intentions are more important than the numerical picture, a premise that I would have to agree with. As far as I am aware, VDW made no reference to a 'stick'.
It may come to naught, if it does I apologise, but could I suggest that, if the rain stays away, Absent Friends, 3.20Y, has been placed to win.
I wish you well.
Johnd

Although Absent Friends OR has risen since his win here two years ago the average class of the opposition has fallen from 84 then to 77 tomorrow.

However hes up a stone in weight, but then he won in a time over a second faster than standard.

The fc 33/1 looks tasty.

Thank you Johnd and JIB.

It's quite true that I wouldn't know the difference between VDW and Jock Bingham. Never met either of 'em.

Absent Friend's race is a holy terror for me!
It is the highest value race of the day, but I'd swiftly moved past it to the 450 Yarm, which isn't much easier, but which is a C2, and only a few hundred ££s less in value.

In Absent's race, which I'll try look at later, my initial pick would be Mr Malarkey. I always back this Pivotal in the wet at sprint distances.
Doesn't win often, but it's usually at a decent price.

I'll give a fairly quick view on the 450, (next post)though I have to say I don't think any pure VDWers would be playing on today's racing.

Tue, Sept 14.

450 Yarmouth, £9K C2 Condition Stakes 3yo+ 6f.

RP Betting Forecast
Country Reel 6/4 3 pts
Colonel Cotton 5/1 2
Whitbarrow 6/1 1

OR
Country Reel 110 3
Russian Valour 108 2
Colonel Cotton 98 1
Dowager 96
Whitbarrow 92

Best RPR
Country Reel 134 3
Colonel Cootton 134 2
Dowager 132 1
Whitbarrow 123

Latest Topspeed
Whitbarrow 103 3
Country Reel 78 2
Russian Valour 1


Massey
Colonel 3
Country 2
Atavus 1

TSF
Whitbarrow 3
Colonel 2
Country 1

Prize Money Earned/Race
Country 3
Russian 2
Atavus 1

All the top contenders were down in class based on race value, except Russian.
I cannot guage the American horse of Godolphin.
Not a race I like. No bet for me!

Points TOTALS:
Country Reel 17
Colonel Cotton 10
Whitbarrow 7.