What is all the fuss about, regarding Muqbil and the 3,05 at Sandown last Sunday and why do most people think there HAS to be a selection in every race ?
I personally have looked at 30 races so far this month and only on 3 occasions have I considered having a bet.
These were
Wed, Sep 1 York 3,45 Into The Dark
Wed, Sep 8 Donc 1,50 Ceasar Beware
Sat, Sep 11 Donc 3,15 Rule Of Law
The breeding experts in the Raceform Update were adamant Rule Of Law would not stay, even though he had won the best trial, so I left him alone. The other 2 were too short a price.

If any members of this forum are achieving an 80% strike rate using VDW’s methods, then it does not matter what advice or information they give there is no guarantee that anyone else will achieve the same. Sure it will be a help to some people and should improve there strike rates if they follow the advice. If the 80%er’s put ALL their selections up pre race then I guarantee the strike rate will fall and this is not because they are bullshitters in the first place.

In my view the only way I am going to become successful is by evaluating the races in the same way year in year out and eventually things will click together. After all this is what VDW did, also it took Jock Bingham 4 years of doing this before he became truly proficient. You cannot expect other people to do the work for you.

Rule Of Law would have been my first bet since July. Those who have seen my bets for July will know I still have a long way to go and will treat this message with the contempt it deserves.

I've had a dekka at the 320 Yarmouth now, and, I have to say, it's not a race I like.
Pretty sure it doesn't qualify as a VDW type, either.

Anyway, for the little it's worth, here are my picks, though I won't be backing them:

Justalord

Malapropism

Tony The Tap.


Here are betbetter's ratings:


14/09/2004 - Yarmouth - 3.20
toteplacepot Sprint Handicap (Class D) (3yo+,0-85) (5f 43yds) (16 Runners)

Foley Millennium
48

Fiddle Me Blue
35

Endless Summer
34

Justalord
33

Mr Malarkey
33

Prime Recreation
32

Salviati
29

Treasure Cay
29

Absent Friends
28

Malapropism
26

Tony The Tap
23

Gone'N'Dunnett
20

Dancing Mystery
17

Musical Fair
17

Polish Emperor
8

Mine Behind
6



And, here's the other £9K race:

14/09/2004 - Yarmouth - 4.50
Elm Contracts Conditions Stakes (Class C) (3yo+) (6f 3yds) (9 Runners)

Country Reel
63

Atavus
35

Whitbarrow
34

Dowager
33

Flushing Meadows
31

Colonel Cotton
30

Russian Valour
19

Boleyn Castle
9

Forest Rail
3


As to Absent Friends, he does have the highest Best RPR, but, the only reason I'd back him is bc his stablemate, Justalord (good chance, imo) had gone fav.
I class John Balding as a shrewd cookie!

Definitely NOT a VDW selection.

there is conflict in the race because of endless summer, mine behind and to a certain extent absent friends(although he looks to be coming to the end of his tether). To back against the first two(winning the race) would be silly in my view as from a VDW point of view there is no winner in the race.

Yes, no bets there would be safest, though I've spotted something that I'll look for in future:

1) Take the highest Best RPRs

2) Take the highest ORs

3) Reject any that is NOT down in class £wise.

In the race I favoured, this left the first three home: Country Reel, Colonel Cotton and Dowager,

but not in the correct order!

So, we're back to the "frowned upon" Dutching, or a bit of multiple place betting.

I look forward with interest to what tomorrow brings.

Btw, betbetter ratings were a bit off today, and my donkey, Mr Malarkey, was stone last!

Don't worry about dutching as long as the prices allow (IMO).

Dutching only got a bad name when betting tax was introduced.

It seems far more reasonable to me to dutch than to bet ew. Afterall its the ovearall odds that count.

If dutching wasnt any good there wouldnt be an almost non-existant over-round on the exchanges.

seanrua,

vdw proposed several methods of combibing the horses if one couldnt, or didnt have the teperament, to select, or wait, for a winner.

one was select the prices, lowest first, and bet singles as follows A AB C for four win singles.

2nd was to identify the contenders from two seperate races and combine in multiple doubles.

IE. 3 horses in one race and 2 from another would give 9 win doubles. prices do have to be monitored and preferably taken to ensure that a profit can be taken.

Thank you Barney.

I have tried similar but going EW, which I don't suppose VDW would do.

My success was limited, and, the common story, of one good winner being negated by a few bad losers, cut my enthusiasm.

I'll look again.

A reduced set of factors today; "less is more".

(Well, I've got to tell the missus something!).

Wed, Sept 15.

420 Yarmouth, £17.4K Listed Stakes A1, Fillies, 10f.

RP Betting Forecast
La Persiana 7/4
Polar Jem 4/1
Silk Fan 6/1

OR
La Persiana 100
Polar Jem 98
Silk Fan 95
Crystal 93


Highest Best RPR
La Persiana 120
Polar Jem 116
Silk Fan 116
Rainbow Queen 111

Down In Class from LTO £s
Castagna

Same class
Polar Jem
Crystal
La Persiana

Too difficult for me without filters, but, at this stage I'd suggest the winner will come from

Castagna
Polar Jem
Crystal
La Persiana.

I'll look again.

Castagna a non-runner.

Final picks:

La Persiana (should win, imo)

Silk Fan
Crystal
Rainbow Queen for the places.

I believe LP may just about qualify as a VDW selection. Any comments?

Sean
I would be very careful with La Persiana,Although this horse does posess certain factors,It went down lto to a horse that had only previously won a maiden.Albeit on heavy ground and giving a stone away to the eventual winner i don't think that race constituted good form.That was one of the problems with Muqbil when going down to Mister Monet.

Seanrua

Re Yarm 4,20 I have the race as follows;

I have the 3 most consistent as Polar Jem, Shamara, and La Persiana. The other horse I have considered is Silk Fan.
All 4 are unproven in this class, all are proven at the distance except Silk Fan. Reading through the form there is nothing to suggest Silk Fan will not get this distance.
If the ground is riding softer than good then I think this will be against Polar Jem, but I think it will enhance Shamara’s chance who won her maiden last year after a layoff and could now do the same having raced in higher class last time out.
La Persiana is a rapidly improving handicapper who ran well enough last time out over course and distance.

If you fancy La Persiana do you really think the 7/4 on offer to be a good enough price considering the risks involved.

Garstonf
I wouldn't consider a hores As "rapidly improving" that went down to a lower rated animal lto,Giving a stone and on the wrong ground admittedly.Better of with the weights today but not one to get over excited about.

Another thundering silence in the 420Y. (Not the greatest advert for the Consistency theory either )

Jib
Good afternoon you old scally if you had polar jem on your donkey list then well done to you.I gave my reasons to Sean why i thought La persianna wouldn't win,In other words he wasn't a form horse.But Polar jem certainly was.Also one of the 3 cons,In 3 top 3 race class lto and 4th on ability.This horse went down to Sahool lto which had an ab rating of 30,The horse was placed over 1 mile 4f going down by a nk.Today back to optimum trip.What must be bore in mind is the class that Sahool had been running in Finishing 2nd in it's last 3 but going down narrowly to the likes of Pongee and Punctullious.Where as La persianna got clobbered lto that had won a class 50 maiden.So to sum up Polar jem was Consistent in HIGHER class And had every right to be in the winners enclosure.

THats one Way to do it.

Not particularly effective in the long run.

Barney
Bullshit,And you know it.Every race is different as we both know.But we also know that "a horse that has shown ability in higher class is a force to be reckoned with". don't we.

Thank you, Investor and Garstonf for your comments, and congrats to Garstonf for picking out the first three home!

I would never have got the second.

Don't be worrying about the value of the selections I come up with, as these are not usually bets of mine.

I did, however back La Persiana to place with a small bet.

NO quibbles, she was well beaten by the first and second.

yeh but it wont find those nice 100/1 winners will it?

no matter what I put on they wouldnt shorten the price, i just kept going back for more and more, Not thick them bookies they dont want the lemmings jumping on the bandwaggon.