Swish,

I would just like to ask, who on the VDW thread has shown disrespect to other peoples winner finding ideas.

The only time I have every seen anything like that is when they say that isn't how VDW worked. Or what he meant. I know because I think a lot of the criticism has come my way.

I have to agree about JIB, he was one of the main reasons I didn't leave the board before, when the last lot of trouble started. I don't understand why there is a clash of personalty's between Statajack and himself. You have to admit the situation was not helped by the interference of a certain member. To my mind JIB has asked some intelligent questions, and to be fair some members have tried to answer them.

I believe the VDW logic is sound, (and you also follow some of it). I put very few selections up. those I do are not to prove anything. I don't feel putting up selections really helps anyone, I would rather try to explain how I work. I am not prepared to explain that in detail a semi public board.

All I ask is the thread get back to normal. Delboy posted a very interesting article, would it be possible to get some view on it? For a long time I have had my doubts about the effect weight does, or doesn't have on the final result of a race. I have been told I am flying in the face of science. This article now says there is another scientific formula that MAY agree that less weight is not a help. I must admit I have never heard of The Work Done formula, have any of you?

I don't think these replys about donkeys carrying 12 or 13st help, there has got to be a lot more involved. How big are said donkeys, how do they preform on certain ground, are they running on proven tracks?

It has been pointed out to me my post about the Silver Lining may have been misunderstood. It was the author in the SL that said food for thought. It was him my reply of 'I don't think so' was intended. Not VDW's article

Be Lucky

Swish

A continuing puzzle for me is why those who are not interested in VDW's work bother to look in on, let alone post to, this thread.

Fair enough for anyone to look in, to see if it is likely that the ideas under discussion are of interest. But once it is clear that they aren't, why bother?

After all, some have no interest in systems, or tipsters, and don't post on those forums, and certainly wouldn't waste their time trying to convince system enthusiasts or tipster-subscribers that their thinking is flawed.

You say "VDW followers will never concede that the theories are flawed". The problem with that comment is that, of the people who post on this thread, the number who have any deep understanding of "the theories" is probably a single digit one, and they seem to find them persuasive. Others are, quite literally, in no position to show that the theories are "flawed" and when they try they merely reveal the superficiality of their understanding.

Finally, you say that no respect is accorded to other ideas. I don't think that is correct. For example, both you and Mtoto have your own approaches to finding winners, and have proved beyond doubt that you can do so. No one - I think - is challenging that, or denigrating what you do. But those ideas aren't necessarily of interest to those whose primary concern is to understand and apply VDW's ideas. Perhaps we need "Swish approach" and "Mtoto approach" threads, where those interested can explore those ideas?

John D,
Thanks for pointing me towards compton commander thats more than once youv`e tried to help me with very little or nothing in return, i noted from his earlier form that 1m 4f was his preferred trip, he was asked to carry a (big weight) over this trip in his penultimate run(to enduce stamina) 0-95 class ran on well, then dropped 2f in distance but raised in class(to enduce speed) 0-100 with lower weight but belied his s/p & was nearest at finish also with improved figures, saturday back to his preffered trip with 12lb less to carry in weight & for good measure the forecast fav in the racing post doesn`t compare well on a line through brilliant red, i hope i am warm john .

p.s. Makes you wonder what they will be doing with Horus shortly .

I have no wish to start another fight on this thread, but I must challenge your statement "BUT THESE IDEAS AREN'T NECESSARILY OF INTEREST TO THOSE WHOSE PRIMARY CONCERN IS TO UNDERSTAND AND APPLY VDW IDEAS".
Firstly, it is arrant nonsense for you to speak on everyone elses' behalf, you have your beliefs,but in no way does that make you the arbiter of what is wrong or right to post on this thread.
Secondly,some of us have a deal of respect for the thoughts of Swish and Mtoto, whether their thinking coincides with yours or not. Mtoto has many times challenged the thinking of the 'ability ratings clique' and has always done so in a reasoned and constructive manner. Both have contributed to this thread many pieces of interest, and to suggest that they should post on a seperate thread, comes across as arrogant and presumptive.
Thirdly, you imply that those who do not concur with your thoughts, do not understand the method. From a personal point of view, I can say, ( With a great deal of gratitude to Guest ), that I now understand a lot of the thinking behind your approach, yet I remain convinced that it is flawed.
Fourthly, and perhaps most importantly, to have this thread run the way you appear to advocate, would not only stifle debate, but also preclude any new thinking that does not correspond with 'The Inner Temple?'.
The current debacle apart, this "We know the way, and it's the only way" attitude, is possibly the most limiting aspect of this thread, at the moment.
As I have already said, it is not my intention to create acerbity, but it would be a cold day for this thread if we all thought the same.

Regards
Johnd

I have just spotted your posting, will reply shortly, dinner calls.

Hello All,
I have spent most of my afternoon reading through the recent posts on this thread of which I'm afraid to say not many have anything to do with Van Der Wheil.
I will repeat my earlier message that any postings not relevant to this otherwise excellent thread must be posted in the appropriate forum.
Any messages that are posted on the VDW forum which I consider out of context will be deleted.
Please do not reply to this posting as that is my final decision.

Gummy

Tomorrow, I shall post a message to Fulham on the OFF TOPIC thread. I announce that on this thread as I don`t know if he looks at threads other than this one. It will be headed VDW RECONCILIATION. It is open now but blank.

111
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Johnd

It is perhaps worth your while considering the meaning of the word "necessarily" before you get too carried away. I speak for no one except myself, and wouldn't presume to do so.

My point is quite simply that, on a thread kindly established by Gummy for the purpose of discussing all things VDW, there is much to be said for reserving it for that purpose. Other ideas (yours included) may well be better or more profitable than VDW's, and will be discussed if there is interest in them. But (to me at least) it would make more sense if they were discussed on other threads.

Close, but no cigar!
Compton Commander showed his best form for some time in his run behind Sphinx. It was a decent 12f race, run at a steady pace, and the form reads thus; 'Ridden 3 out,STAYED ON WELL final furl.
The trainer decides that the trip is OK, ( There are very few good class races run over further at this course) but the horse needs to sharpen up, if he is to win at this distance.
He then pushes him up in class, ( The weight, IMO, is incidental, and an accident of class) over 2f shorter, and the horse runs a promising race, over a trip,which, on the evidence of his previous run, is too short. The trainer decides the horse is poised to win, and runs him in the next available race.
Contrast this with Linning Wine; runs in a 10f conditions race and shows good form, he is then dropped in class and wins a reasonably run 12f race, where the form reads " Good progress on outer 2 FURLONGS OUT. SWEPT INTO LEAD OVER 1F OUT,ran on strongly. In this lower class he records a pm of 91, some 12 lbs less than his last race over 10f.
He is then raised in class, back over 10f, and the form reads, " Held up last trio, PROGRESS ON OUTER 2F OUT,ran on to take 2nd last strides" recording a pm of 104, 13lbs higher than his 12f run.
Which horse would you support over 12f when reading the evidence this way ?
Watching the race, which was initially run at a slowish pace, LW travelled well, and came with every chance at the distance, only to run out of steam in the closing stages
In the race previous to this, using the same approach of class, distance, and how the horses ran, compare the claims of Mutawaqed and Legal Set respectively, and ask yourself, why was Legal Set so close in the betting, and why did they drop Mutawqed in trip, the latter answer should be obvious. Incidentally, this was one of the most astonishing performances I have seen in a long time; the horse was left in the stalls, 5l behind the rest of the field halfway, and last into the short straight and still won cosily.
I hope things are now clearer, if anyone tells you this is not the VDW approach, chuckle up your sleeve, and suggest to them that they read the books again.

Regards
Johnd

Hello..............was Gummy`s post written with invisible ink?

Apologies if any of you feel I am butting in but here goes anyway.

I am presently reviewing all 358 pages of this thread. Why ?

I am several formbooks short so I am unable to review all the old examples so I have taken the decision to review the whole thread taking in each horse/race mentioned along the way.

I firmly believe I`ll learn just as much this way rather than going through all the old examples. I may be wrong but what the hell.

One thing is for sure, whilst I value everything the likes of Fulham, Guest, Swish, etc say for me it is Mtoto`s post that excite me the most and yes I learn something every time I read one of his posts.

MTOTO & SWISH & JOHND`S THOUGHTS WHETHER THEY FIT VDW OR NOT MUST REMAIN ON THIS THREAD.

WHY ? THEY WORK ON CLASS & FORM AS WELL AS SPEED JUST LIKE VDW SO THIS IS WHERE THEY BELONG.

Enough said,

That doesnt have to be complicated

Good post Johnd

Sound simple and most important
logical

Barney

In your 8.07 post on 30/12/02 you said you'd looked at the VDW examples up to King's Ride and had concluded that all were bets except Uther Pendragon, Soaf, The Old Feller and Lyric Dance.

Obviously I don't know how you've reached that conclusion, but one possibility is that you see it as flowing from the pointer given in one of Guest's last posts.

If that is right, what about Crown Matrimonial? That one has always seemed straightforward to me, but in the light of Guest's pointer (so helpful in resolving some others) a doubt emerges. Any thoughts?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Determined:
Apologies if any of you feel I am butting in but here goes anyway.

I am presently reviewing all 358 pages of this thread. Why ?

I am several formbooks short so I am unable to review all the old examples so I have taken the decision to review the whole thread taking in each horse/race mentioned along the way.

I firmly believe I`ll learn just as much this way rather than going through all the old examples. I may be wrong but what the hell.

One thing is for sure, whilst I value everything the likes of Fulham, Guest, Swish, etc say for me it is Mtoto`s post that excite me the most and yes I learn something every time I read one of his posts.

MTOTO & SWISH & JOHND`S THOUGHTS WHETHER THEY FIT VDW OR NOT MUST REMAIN ON THIS THREAD.

WHY ? THEY WORK ON CLASS & FORM AS WELL AS SPEED JUST LIKE VDW SO THIS IS WHERE THEY BELONG.

Enough said,

---

DeterminedMember

I hope this is a case of great minds thinking alike rather than the blind leading the blind!
as I have embarked on a similar path...as well as the posters named above I like Barneys idea that all was revealed in the 1st letter and all the rest was smoke and mirrors.

reference the above perhaps GUMMY should rename this thread to 'VDW and other stuff'...!

cheers

IMP

John good post that & thanks again, one or two points though if i may. Imho the trainer was aware of compton commanders best distance before the sphinx race. Weight may be incidental and an accident of class to the punter but never to the trainer he uses weight & class often in the preparation of a horse along with other factors statajacks portrayal of Miss farra in the ces was a prime example of this in operation.
What i would like to ask though was Linning Wines card fully marked coming into this race he was raised in class l.t.o.granted over a shorter distance & showed an improved postmark but slight reduction in topspeed which one do we use as the the template from the vdw perspective or can we use the horses best performance over the last 12 months adjusted to weight carried in one way or the other to gain a better insight?.

In my opinion,

when these three horses are introduced, they are done so to illustrate the ability rating, or class, which had not been mentioned to this point.

VDW also refers to these three as "racing certainties".

This, in my view, is a large step forward from the "good things" and "outstandidng bets" which had previously been illustrated, and should not be confused.

in the letter april 17, vdw gives one way to bet if the factors cannot be balanced, why he quickly followed in may I dont know, perhaps he thought that he had not helped enough.

All the time I am reading these letters I think he was trying to help clarify the issues that other letters were raising.

He says so himself " there is a lot more to it than that, but first a sound foundation is required"

these examples appear, to me at any rate, to be building on the foundations that vdw had given in that very first example. At this time a number of letter writers are still struggling.

in these three examples why did he think they were entitled to win under those race conditions?

he also adds "for obvious reasons this (ability) is not fool proof but it enables a better judgement to be made" Again by my interpretation, OTHER METHODS of rating are a guide. and he soon disposes of them for the lincoln.

specifically he was no mug, he had been in the long walk, the imperial cup, the liverpool hurdle all in not quite similar circumstances but under todays conditions after a fair novice season it should be a cakewalk.

When the race was first framed he would not have been there, an awfull lot of good uns must have dropped out.

I view little owl as a merging of old and new. where everything REALLY does line up.

PS.I think Mtoto would view this as one where it is proved that weight means nothing. BUT its a complete picture for that race.

Determined/Imp.

I dont have the time to study the old examples but ive often wondered out of curiosity how i would get on if i bought all the relevant form books & vdw letters.

The assumption is that if you read through this thread then you should be in a position at least to save yourself a lot of time on the study front, but before you do this set out your targets and your goals, why are you starting out on this path?,do you honestly think you can crack the code given the obvious confusion of others who may be more talented academically than yourselves?, or is it not to do with academics is it better left to a more lateral thought pattern or a combination of both? hell i dont know!.

What i do know is that (VDW`s) name was never found on the electoral register this is a fact, think about it!.

Barney if your last post is an example of what can be achieved when you do purchase all the necessarys then study in depth, perhaps i should bite the bullet & get my finger out my a..e, i wish i knew what you were talking about? as it does look good.

That is just how I felt 12 months ago.

No probs barney i know im pissing about with this but a statement made by guest a while back made me wonder whether i needed to purchase all things relative , he stated or near enough said lol, that everything that was needed was contained in the systematic betting book , so i thought about restricting the form books to the horses mentioned therin what do you think? would this do? i hope i haven`t misquoted guest but i think he said that lol, god it would save a fortune if he was right.