JIB

I dont do jumps
But define "better HCPs" and I may be able to do the work for you
As long as I am as enthusiastic tomorrow when I aint Pissed

Boozer
you talk out of your arse.

T.c
keep licking jib's arse you will lays be a taker.

Jib
You i have respect for,But your knowledge of vdw i could put on the back of a stamp.

Seanrua
If you really are interested in vdw.Don't listen to the likes of T.c He's f.....g useless Jib uses his own way but get's results and fair play to him.But don't lose sight of the ab rating and the importance of class.I want to carry on learning about vdw and with all due respect there is nobody left on here who can give me any more than i already know,So take care and i wish you all the best of LUCK.

Nofinepix
take it easy mate,And don't forget to look at the race as a whole it will stand you in good stead.official ratings point the way but so does the ability rating when it is used properly.Ta.Ta.

Thank you Investor
Always the gentleman
Lay off the booze youre sounding like an Arsole

This message has been edited. Last edited by: boozer,

AGAIN

quote:

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there is nobody left on here who can give me any more than i already know,

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lUV IT !!!

just don't be so "SHY" next time !

Boozer,

I ve been using hcp chs and hcp hdls with at least £5k prizemoney.

Investor

quote:

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Take the stand was the class form horse with factors against end of story.

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The major factor being the 2m4f of today's race, a shorter distance than he had run over in any of his 16 previous chases.
That you choose to ignore what is staring you in the face is testament to where you really draw your conclusions from.

JIB
I will run off a couple of NH databases Later today, I cant see much hope to be honest I would think most of Seans OR results must be a flash in the pan,there again Race selection plays a big part so.....
anyway we will see

A number of years ago I did some research on the betting forecast putting the first 6 in weighted order flat hcps I found that the top 3 weights trapped 60% of the winners
When the winner fell in the first 6 of course,
So not really good enough to use as a second filter

Circassian 3.40Lingfield looks a bit like Pegwell Bay to me,the price may be short about 5/4,but it looks a winner.The danger may be winners delight.

TC,

I don't think it will surprise you that I also think speed is one of the factors in the other ratings. However it isn't just the basic s/f that is important. In the Erin of the five horses VDW rated using his other ratings Monksfield was the fastest horse. Of the consistent horses Beacon Light was the fastest of these. So another factor has to be brought into the equation. VDW said many times speed by it's self isn't enough. He also said form is what they did, class is where they did it. I think he is taking form (what they did) and putting a numerical figure to it. So the question is where did they do it? You don't have the form books so I will ask what do you think the better performance is, 126 s/f in a 30 or 112 s/f in a 92?

Looking at his other ratings I don't think he used OR's, that isn't to say he wouldn't now. Many of his selections where well down on the OR, some where in fact out of the handicap (Battlement for one) I think back then it was a case of the better horses running in the more valuable races, far more than it is now. With the OR, is it the OR of the horses that is important, or the OR's of the competition? He did say look to see what the horse had beaten.

Strangely I find myself in full agreement with JohnD about Take A Stand, the distance was all wrong for him. It would take a HUGE leap of faith to think he could run to his best at that distance. So how can he be the c/form horse, he didn't have the form at the distance, or even near it? Others in the race had the form in the book.

Investor,

If you really think you can't learn anymore from this thread, I think you are making a very big mistake. Even if you don't agree with many of the ideas being put forward a lot can be learnt by trying to disprove them.

Be Lucky

The trouble I have with speedfigs is that I use the ones in the RP. Besides chopping and changing the methodology once a year they have one common anomally that I find quite worrying.

If a horse carrying 8st beats one carrying 10st by a nk in a 8f race obviously the the horse that won ran the fastest. However the RP speedfigs will give the second horse a speedfig about 14 pts higher than the winner!

Obviously there are other brands of speedfigs on offer, but most of them dont differ from this practise or dont record the historic data of each horse, only providing the rating for the forthcoming race.

As a result I think the idea of using speedfigs to assess a horses ability is a potential minefield, and the only 'weight free' rating universally available is in fact the OR.

JIB,

I can only agree with your thinking on the s/f dilemma. My answer to that was to use the figure without the weight adjustment. Use the figure adjusted to 9st for all the horses. That way the winner is the fastest horse. The problem with Top Speed is there have been too many different people formulating the figures.

I now use the Raceform s/f where weight hasn't been used at all. I think this does supply another figure that can be used long side the OR, or instead of the OR. If you use Raceform Dataform the last six runs, and up too the last six wins are recorded, so a reasonable feel for the horse is available.

Be Lucky

Jib

Bit of a struggle today
as I said I dont do jumps and the program I use converts raceform data from raceform into a usable form to import into a Paradox Database but was designed for Flat racing only

The tables look Ok and I cant find anything wrong but With 100,000 horses runs I wouldnt dare to guarantee the integrity however.

2 seasons jumps 02/03
from 1830 Handicaps worth £5000 or more
528 winners came from the top 3 weights
Not a figure to get excited about but what I expected

If you give me some more criteria I will run it through

I don't think there was any VDW type race in UK today, and I was at Wolverhampton, anyway.

I did very badly, but an amazing thing is that a " shock" 14/1 winner that beat one of my bigger bets was, in fact, a horse that ran in the most valuable race lto, once again!

Crap standard of racing today but Compton Micky, no win from ten starts, last three races: 14/14, 12/15, 5/9, had run in a £5K race lto.

Perhaps this IS a pointer, even in binbags racing.

ps, stick with it Investor! At least you're not afraid to have a go. Dunno what's happened to many of the other VDWers.
We don't see much of their work; maybe, JIB has put them to shame or something.

Mtoto,

If Raceform level to 9st, to my mind that still isnt 'right'. I'm not sure from your reply if they do adjust or not, I can understand that by adjusting to 9st Raceform are trying to make the speedfigs comparable but the speedfig should be an absolute value (totally unadjusted) and not a relative one. The user could then ponder on the effect of any weight change in the forthcoming race.

If horse A carrying 9st breaks the course record at a given course with horse B also carrying 9st 3lengths behind it. Then even the Raceform figs would imply that horse B would rebreak horse As' record if it was to carry 8st over the same course, dist, and going. An assumption we would be unlikely to accept in reality. Even if weight does slow a horse it doesnt mean that taking it off will speed it up.

By tying speed to weight, in whatever manner, a punter is assuming that weight can alter a horses class, which is as good an idea as playing hopscotch in a minefield. And is it not VDW who teaches that class is permanent?

Plus with the size of my stakes Raceform is too expensive!

Boozer,

The figs look disappointing, perhaps the first thing to do would be to seperate chases from hurdles, the latter are probably much worse than chases (?)

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

Jib

races £5000 0r greater

Chases
Total 790
261 winners in top 3 weights

Hurdle
Total 921
231 winners in top 3 weights

So you were right Chases are slightly better

Discrepency in total races is due to NH flat races being included in first result

JIB,

First, Dataform is free, at the moment at least. Secondly weight doesn't come into the equation in any way. It is not used to formulate the s/f and that figure is not adjusted by the weight carried in the race being run on the day.

When I used to convert the figures back to 9st, the weight carried in future races was ignored.

Dataform can be found on https://secure.raceform.co.uk/

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

Thanks! It looks v worthwhile.


Boozer,

I make that a third of hcp chases going to the top3 OR. That seems a good place to start. Iam taking the top 3 then looking at the trainer SR for hcp chases at the course which I would want at least 15% for.

Depending on the number of runners and their SPs I will go down the ORs until I find decent trainer stats.

Although a hcp hdl, the 310C today is a good example of this. The top 4 ORs all have crap trainer/course SRs for hcp hdls (Henrietta Knight has never won any type of hdl at Cheltenham from 34 attempts!) So I ve plumped for the ORs 5, 6, and 7.

ORs 5 and 6 are both M Pipe who is not quite 15% at the course for hcp hdls but this is Cheltenham and he does have the habit of going mob-handed at the course, so I ve been flexable on this occasion.

Backing them last night I got about 11/2 on the dutch.

Tuesday, October 26.

Very briefly, my three " rough" selections for todays's "VDW" race are

What's Up Boys

Redemption

Numitas.

I'll go for the one in the middle, Redemption.

The race above is

310 Cheltenham.