To continue with my chart I have added data from last year. I have repeated the previous chart because it didn’t display as it displayed in the reply window. Whatever happened to WYSIWYG. As before the figures do not include N.H races.

2004 RACES WINNER FROM
MONTH EVALUATED 3 MOST CONS
MAR 8 2 25%
APR 29 9 31%
MAY 59 39 66%
JUN 57 37 65%
2003
JUL 70 48 69%
AUG 40 24 60%
SEP 39 26 67%
OCT 28 17 61%
NOV 4 1 25%

As you can see the figures have remained consistent.
March and the beginning of April is the height of the N.H season and I would expect the figures to be 60% plus. Therefore I think we can expect around 65% average all year round.
To avoid any confusion the figures above are the 3 most consistent from the first 5/6 in the betting forecast from my local evening paper.

biotechnology

Please except my apologies for getting you mixed up with johnd.

Re VDW I don't think anybody can operate the method exactly as he shows without knowing the 2 methods of rating he used. To know how these are compiled and what they are based on would go a long way to understanding his way of thinking.

Why is it that men attempt to systemise the unsystematic? – to attempt to extract a theory from a mass of digested or indigested learning? The hope is that heroic labours of the higher intelligentsia will organise a collection of readings into a coherent body of detailed principles.

The reality may well be that our modern-day hero, armed with such principles, inhibits the “genius” of VDW. Whilst the teachings of VDW would be busy draping themselves in the clothes of modernity, the man himself would be shackled by our hero. Unable to exercise his freedom of writing upon writing, VDW would be required to comply with known principles.

In the absence of such detailed principles, it seems to me, that the majority of VDW disciples learn by initiation, by repetition of “ceremonies” and by absorbing the received wisdom of the VDW community. When one can do this and prove an addiction to such, then one may be approved by the community as competent in VDW.

Epi
That very few punters even realise what is being played out in front of their eyes.

Trojan
Or to put it another way, VDW tells them something is simple, they can't see it, so they don't believe it, and spend the rest of their lives rationalising, when their time would have been better spent by believing him in the first place.

Nice one trojan !!

If a horse has had it's ability successfully hidden it would neither be prominent in the forecast nor boast enticing consistency figures, and if the horse is running for prize money the trainer wants to know it's true abilities to avoid a pointless run. For VDW recommended races the idea doesn't make sense, it's suitable for market movers in races in which prize money would be a minor incentive.

Epi
You are wrong!
Take a look at Jagger from Saturday's Northumberland Plate.
OK, he didn't win, he probably didn't get home in the ground, but there is no doubt he had been laid out for the race, and that, although a highly consistent horse, he had not shown his full potential in public.
Last season he had won 2 good 14f races and showed every sign of needing further; rather than expose him completely, his trainer chose to drop him back 2 furlongs in distance and raise him in class. He duly won that race too, but, despite showing significant improvement,and in the wrong circumstances, his trainer managed to get away with a 3lb increase in his OR.
G Butler said immediately after the race that his next target was the Northumberland Plate, obviously not an inspiration he had had in the unsaddling enclosure.
Interviewed before the Plate as to his horses absence this year, his trainer, with some reticence, admitted that this race had been the plan all along. That it didn't come off was probably an accident of the weather, that does not alter the aforementioned facts.
As I said earlier, trainers do train their horses on the racetrack, and not for the benefit of Joe Public.
VDW was aware of that; many others are not, that is their problem, not mine.

All I can reiterate IMO is that VDW has never nor never will be understood in the way VDW meant it to be, & I have it from Tony Peaches own lips that he never existed, however in amongst the mind boggling array of info & contradictions there are useful snippets of form study & articles which from time to time may prove valuable in evaluating races of a higher class, in the same way as form ratings or speed ratings are.
Whatever people may think of Fulham there can be no doubt he studied VDW methodology like some mad professor trying to find a cure for cancer, and if he still cant find the route to the "key" then I seriously doubt anyone can-for Gods sake the man can almost recite his every typed word.
To me its folly to try & understand wholly the method as whats a positive today can be contradicted by some verse from letter 7 tomorrow.
The class form horse is never usually far away in the better races, and they dont take a nights work to isolate, maybe thats the route VDW disciples should follow, encompassing temprament to their selections.
Bio

Johnd

If you look at the updated chart below you will see why the 3 most consistent is unrepresentative in March and April. Please note that the final total is just 1% short of Methodmaker’s 83%.

2004_____RACES_______WINNER FROM_____________WINNER FROM FIRST
MONTH__EVALUATED__3 MOST CONS_____________5/6 PAPER FORECAST
MAR_____8_____________2_____________25%_________5___________63%
APR_____29_____________9_____________31%________20___________69%
MAY____59____________39_____________66%________52___________88%
JUN_____58____________37_____________64%________50___________86%
2003
JUL_____70_____________48____________69%________55___________79%
AUG____40_____________24____________60%________33___________83%
SEP_____39_____________26____________67%________34___________87%
OCT____28_____________17____________61%_________23___________82%
NOV_____4_____________1_____________25%__________3__________75%
TOTAL_335___________203_____________61%________275__________82%

Johnd: Take for example the 7:25 at Epsom tonight. There are nine runners so I take it that in your opinion about six of these dont want to win, in fact they want to lose, is that so? If I were betting I would back Loyal Tycoon but out of perversity I'm going to suggest Lord Of The East, why do you think either of these is running?

Epi,
I think that Jay and Jay is a winner in a race,ie won it last year only 2 lbs higher tonight,and 2nd two years ago,improved last time,trainer in form and a lot going for it,look at the race it is coming from.

Pipedreamer: Thanks. My first impression was that it should go to one of the top weighted three, I'll take a closer look a little later.

Crotty has Jayanjay as a 2 star each way selection !

I get the feeling that Dandy Nichcols is going for this race, but as usual when he goes in mob handed the choice is not clear !

Can anyone manage to "read" this trainer ???

TC,

He is so devious that I dont think even his stable staff know for sure if even one of the runners is down to have a go.

On many occasions he seems to have two or even three genuine triers and lets the jocks sort it out!

The form of his horses is meaningless. Personally I become interested in his runners if they have gone a dozen runs without winning as owners have to be satisfied too!

Wouldn't figure high in VDWs list of "Good Things" then !!!

Of Mr Nicholls two runners in the 725E, the one I would be most interested in would be the less fancied Loyal Tycoon who has now gone 14 races in 13 months without winning.

It now has a mark 5lbs lower than when it last won. In that race there were 6 horses rated above and one equal to it. Today it is clear top weighted.

Loyal Tycoon is now ready to win again, todays task would not be a problem for it if Mr Nichols doesnt mind undoing a years work for a horse quoted at 6/1 to win a 9k prize.

On the otherhand a bad run must be worth another 2lbs from Mr Smith.

at 5/1 - cape st vincent makes for me a good ew bet.

Hugie Morrisons record in handicaps here is 4/4

and it was a decent run lto

Epi
Not a race I would want to get involved in, even without the uncertainty about the weather.
Can't imagine you doing anything out of perversity.

Garstonf
Many thanks for the figures, they look quite good in the summer months.
Do your records show if they would have made a lsp during these months?

Good call JIB !

also -

Massey traps First Three !!!