I wonder why the key as interpreted by G Hall
Didnt produce as many bets over the sticks

Boozer: is that the case? I thought G.Hall was never heard from after finding the key.

epi

I tend to regard any race as a "jigsaw" where you have to assemble the pieces, and try to fill in those pieces which are not availible to you.

I was fortunate to be at the track at Newcastle to watch the "Northumberland Plate" - and I defy anyone to have predicted the winner of that race - (although looking at it in highnsight there were a few clues!)

However I did come out with a profit - not from looking at trainers - but combining "Owners with Trainers" - and looking at "Owners - Expectations" !!!

tc

I think owners are an underrated angle so probably a value approach.

epi,
I'm not sure what you mean,I didn't think Grey Swallow would stay,what do I know?and the others I couldn't see them reversing placings with North Light,s**t happens,

Pipedreamer: sorry, which race is that?

epi

1st OWNER: Sheikh Mohammed BRED: Shadwell Estate Company Limited TRAINER: J H M Gosden
2nd OWNER: Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum
3rd OWNER: A Crute and Partners


TOTE WIN £4.80 PL £2.40, £3.90, £1.90; Ex £73.80; CSF £44.53; TRICAST £232.53
After a stewards' inquiry, the placings remained unaltered.

--

got an Arab owner - what you gonner do ???

pipe dreamer

never underestimate D.Wells - no bloody fool !!

tc

Stud owners are often over 20%.

The way i looked at this race was no bet but i would have backed North light if race was at epsom again as it would appear the track is easier than the Curragh

Pipedreamer: okay, I've found your race. Dont you think the price was rather short for the field and distance?

Epsom -

Generaly regarded - as "the most difficult Track in the World" !!!

K.Fallon is the "Master" of this Track !

learnt it all from Lestor Piggott !!

tc

Tc
That could well be right but i think Epsom is more position and speed at the right time than a battle to the line at the Curragh

Epi
VDW did mention other considerations, but the fact remains that in his early letters the emphasis was very much on consistency. That,IMO,is the root of the method, as he set out many times in his equation for finding winners, and those who would have it otherwise are misguided.

Pipedreamer
I believe we were put away by the going, which was much faster than the previous day. Both North Light and Percussionist were being niggled along at a very early stage on going appreciably faster than Epsom. Capability is a vital part of the method, and we both paid the price for ignoring it.

Johnd: the way I see it is that the support from two independent ratings validates the consistency figures, that's the meaning of other considerations. Without that back-up neither the figures nor the ratings should be trusted so, on to the next race.

John
If you wish to denigrate the method, then you would need more than one shock result, in isolation, to do so.
Certain results are unpredictable, however, anyone who believes that as a generality shouldn't even be betting horses, let alone trying to advance their selection process.
I gave my reason for North Light's demise last night, a view supported by his jockey this morning. Maybe all is not lost?

I know that this VDW forum is open to everyone but out of courtesy I would have thought the discussion of this forum and VDW would be posted on this forum and not on the UK Race Systems board.

Blackcat etc.