HOME »
|
Go
 |
New
|
Find
|
Notify
|
Tools
|
Reply
|
|
|
Member |
quote: John I would totally agree with the above; as was recently discussed, VDW is all about the training and placing of racehorses. IMO there is the rub. Gummy On most days on this forum, you will see the names of the deserters peeking over the wall they have created. Were they happy with their present situation, that would not be the case. Let the sad one continue to cast his net, he is fishing in barren waters. |
||
|
|
Member |
Tuppenycat
I disagree with your view that Letters 8 and 13 describe 2 completly separate "methods". I am of the opinion that VDW evaluated every race in exactly the same manner. From the examples given Prominent King, Little Nugget and Battlement were not in the first 4 on ability as described in his 1981 letter. Also, Little Nugget and Strombolus were not in the betting forecast. This leads me to believe that it was his 2 methods of rating combined with consistent form figures that showed the above as good propositions. His study of form would have confirmed this to be the case. Regarding his statement of 29 winners from 32 bets, I believe these were from different methods. |
||
|
|
Admin Member  |
Hello johnd,
I should make the wall a bit higher with some broken glass and barbed wire on top. Gummy |
||
|
|
Jolly Swagman Member  |
garstonf
I suggest that you read with care - letter 15 ! (To avoid cluttering up this thread - I have posted -letter15 -on the VDW extra thread for the benefit of those who don't have a copy) Firstly, letters 8 and 13 were written in 1978 - are you suggesting that VDW knew what he was going to write in 1981 ???? Secondly, letter 15 specificly refers to "The Method I gave" producing 85% to 90% winners.!!! Lastly, why would a letter to a "complete novice" like G.Hall contain a reference to 29/32 winning bets - from a completly different method ?? - He would have to be a bragging egotist to do so - "He was not" !!! Note also that he refers to winning "bets" - a "bet" , can include 3 Horses !!!!! tc |
||
|
|
Jolly Swagman Member |
Gummy - Barbed Wire won't stop them looking !!
 |
||
|
|
Long Shot Member  |
TC
would Grey swallow have been a VDW selection as he had the class from last year CHAMPION 2yo if I remember gave him class I think he had the wrong going at Newmarket which got the better of him his ratings from last year were very good and the trainer had put him in the race so he must have thought there was something more to come have fun |
||
|
|
Jolly Swagman Member |
I get totaly confused when people talk about a Horse being a "VDW selection" - in my view - he gave a number of methods of selection during the period of his writing !
The most widely discussed being of course the Class/Form method - but in my view, this is only a part of the overall picture ! VDW went on in his writings, to discuss many other factors, not least the role of the trainer, and here, though I don't yet have a full understanding, I side with JIB and johnd ! I think the key to the Grey Swallow race lies with Mr D.Wells himself !! With his tongue firmly in his cheek he said afterwards, "we didn't know if he would stay" !!! tc |
||
|
|
Long Shot Member |
TC
you mentioned that word that does not exist KEY when you see a trainer going a long way for a race though not this one weighed up with other criteria could be the thing that gives it that extra thing they are all looking for to make it a solid selection ie the KEY makes you wonder it does me anyway have fun ps love the art work |
||
|
|
Jolly Swagman Member |
OK stand corrected !!
Better word might be "Clue" ! JIB is good at words - he probably has an appropriate one - most likly v-rude !  |
||
|
|
Member |
Tc/Gf
VDW once wrote "No genius in finding winners, just a consistent and methodical approach. He may have given some variations on this such as his 2yo/3yo method, and his hurdles & chases method,but I am convinced it was the same basic approach from Prominent King right through to Rivage Bleu, and those who see it as a number of different methods do so because they do not understand the basic method. |
||
|
|
Jolly Swagman Member |
Agreed
Prominent King (letter 8) - features the consistent horse approach. He has selected the horses with the three lowest figures , and then gone on to choose one of those 3. ie Prominent King. At the end he says "with a sensible staking plan, the method works well for me". He has earlier (indeed his first contribution) described a staking plan ! If he didn't use it, why bother to describe it ?? I conclude that Prominent King - describes a method that - quote - (narrows the field and puts the odds in your favour)!! It doesn't tho - give you 85% or 90% winners !!! However !! Earlier in the Prominent King letter, he says - quote : ( A high percentage of winners come from the three lowest figures. Leaving out sellers and novice handicaps, it often traps the winner in all the races on the card !!!!! This leads on to letters 13 and 15, in which he says that - quote : (the method I gave produced 85% to 90% winners) !!! ie - he is here - betting all three horses which have the lowest figures !!! Still the consistent horse approach - But - a different method !!!! |
||
|
|
The Vital Spark Member  |
|
||
|
|
Jolly Swagman Member |
Again no hard views - but
Plus sa change - Plus c'est la meme chose !  |
||
|
|
Jolly Swagman Member |
Wots Richard Guest doing up at Hamilton,? and why has Fallon gone all the way up there just in order to ride for him ???
 |
||
|
|
Member |
If you care to check I think you will find that in racing of this day and age, the three most consistent from the betting forecast produces about 55% winners. I do not consider this to be a high percentage, but I will concede that this may have been a lot higher 30 years ago.
|
||
|
|
Jolly Swagman Member |
Thats an interesting percentage - if correct it would appear to negate an awfull lot of VDW.
Perhaps other Class/Form exponents have a view on this ?? |
||
|
|
Jolly Swagman Member |
Guest/Fallon - 1st Race
Les Arcs - scored only 22 on the consistency rating - well out of 1st three - But I recon "Trainers Intentions" were pretty clear !! - Is it now - SAW ?? or will Fallon be content with only one winner for his petrol money ??? This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat, |
||
|
|
Member |
Pipedreamer: I see what you mean about Bayhirr and as such I would suggest the workings of the method would disqualify it as a selection, "no element of a gamble" etc.
On the question of trainers hiding their horses' abilities, I dont understand why they need to in the kind of races one's advised to consider(?) |
||
|
|
Jolly Swagman Member |
epi
Well ---- There's always the "Northumberland Plate" !!!!  |
||
|
|
Member |
Garstonf
I do not have a database, so I cannot check the percentages, but, with the criteria he gave, I would be very surprised, instinctively or logically, if your figures are correct. Tc In his Prominent King example, VDW showed how he eliminated every contender but one. How that can be used as a springboard to dutching is beyond me. Epi You must, by now,know these quotes almost as well as I . However, one more time, for old times sake:"What a lot of punters don't seem to appreciate is that in any race the majority of horses are not there to win,but to prepare them to win. In most cases, irrespective of how many runners there are, only one, two, or maybe three, are really candidates for consideration". That is still as true today as when VDW wrote it. A few weeks ago, I wrote, "From the first 6 in the betting, Barolo was the only horse at the races". For those with enough interest, they could look at that race and figure out why. This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd, |
||
|
| Previous Topic | Next Topic | powered by groupee community | Page 1 ... 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 ... 854 |
 | Please Wait. Your request is being processed... |
|
|||
| Site | Gummy Racing Forum | ||
| Servlet | eve2da005 | ||
| Version | 1.2.11 build 8443 | ||
| Module | Forums 4.0.3 | ||
| Stylesheet | "MyPop Style" | ||
| Wordlet Set | "Default Wordlet Set" | ||
|
|
|
| View $GS_USERNAME's Public Profile |
| Add $GS_USERNAME to my Buddies |
| Invite $GS_USERNAME to a Private Topic |
| View Recent Posts by $GS_USERNAME |
| Notify me of New Posts by $GS_USERNAME |
