He asked us to use ratings as a guide.But when?, in any engagement before the race or on the day of a race?.

WALTER
Not sure of what the question is. Ratings from the day of the race can only be based on past performances.
On his new thread, Swish is using ratings for best performance, sometimes from the previous year, VDW also showed this with To-Aguri-Mou, which may answer your query.

Im not asking a question, forgive me if that does`nt sound right .

The only thing i can do is explain as best as i can.

Basically what im sayin is if a horse is well rated for any race then declines the engagement then there must be a good reason for it?.

Any serious punter must have noticed the frequency with which high-class condition races result in small fields often with only two or three runners.This is not surprising when the implications are considered.The entrance and acceptance fee may involve £50 ( much more these days) which to all intents is thrown down the drain for the lower class horse, but the more important factor is why risk the consequences involved.
Most of these small field races are not true run and for the lower-class horse the risk of being allotted more than a fair weight in handicap company after finishing within a few lengths of a class horse.Moreover, there is the fact that they meet on only pounds difference in the condition race, but in a handicap it could be a couple of stone or more.
*There is a clear message in the above and it should enable the astute punter to prosper*.

Taken from letter 35 tgy`s.

We have many intelligent people on here so ive posted this up in the hope we can solve it together.

I am going to ask you keep an eye on Breknen Le Noir who was pulled from the 2.50 at Ascot Saturday past & holds a few more this week.
It should be interesting to watch what hobbs does with him.

2 horses stand out in the 4.45L., Hip Hop Harry and Ezz Elkheil, and a rfc looks more attractive than a short priced dutch.

WALTER
Will post my take on the VDW article later.
Johnd

Letter 35.. TGY
Read carefully this is an essay on low class horses in high class conditions races, and VDW gives us a number of reasons why they shouldn't be there, and then asks why they are?
I am reasonably certain that the reason they are there is the chance of nicking a reasonable prize, as their trainers know that high class horses are run in these races to condition them, and may not be fully fit, or given too hard a race.
In the paragraph prior to this piece, he gives us his oft quoted equation for finding winners, the 4th element being probability. It should be no secret that a part of probability is that the horse is dropped in class, something he drew our attention to consistently. A warning that horses dropped in class aren't always out to win. The well known saying 'Beware of conditions form in Handicaps' surely has part of its roots in this phenomenon.
The folowing paragraph he discusses high class horse carrying staggering weights, the inference being that they run in conditions races to avoid being given too hard a time of it. There are any number of present day examples of this, though more flat than jumps these days.
How often do we see group winners or top class handicappers running in £9k conditions races, and how many of the are really up for it? Surely it is not logical to run a horse capable of winning a 34k hcap (Bonus) in a 9k cond race, and certainly it is the reason why Best Mate starts off his season in one of these races, and over the wrong course and the wrong distance.
Another hole in the in form/out form crap that fills much of this thread.

[This message was edited by johnd on February 25, 2004 at 08:53 PM.]

Johnd

Seems to be that the matter of running horses 'lower than their class' and the 'in form/out of form crap' are two different matters.

AS a point of interest I'm not one who ties himself in knots over whether a horse is in-from or out-of-form. At best it's a nebulous concept, and I see it more a question of whether a horse's recent form is good enough to cope with today's opposition. Whether that's 'in form' depends entirely on your terms of reference.

You make some quite reasonable points but referring to the judgement of 'in-form' or 'out-of-form' as 'crap' serves little purpose. While you may not agree with others' interpretations it was nevertheless mentioned by VDW, so might be considered a reasonable subject for discussion. However it must be said that at times some seem to spend a lot of time admiring the trees while not noticing the wood.

Rob

ROB NORTH
In form/out of form is not a phrase of my invention, nor, I believe, was it ever one of VDW's.
It is however a fundament of the approach followed by so many on this thread, and often portrayed by them, ( Mostly after the result was known), as part of the path to the Holy Grail.
That that approach is wrong, I am absolutely certain, and unlike many of its disciples, I am prepared to show (To a limited extent), before the race, why that is so.
Those who think the IF/OOF approach is right also have an equal opportunity to show that their approach works, but they have shown their dislike for a level playing field in the past, and will no doubt continue to do so.
This thread has the potential to really get somewhere in the quest for the truth about VDW, and no honest person should have anything to fear from its detractors. Unfortunately, it has been used by some as a vehicle to act out their imagined expertise, and that serves only to detract from this medium and from VDW.

Thanks, you`ve certainly got me thinking with your essay John.
I reckon when trainers are out to win any sort prize-money they are trying to place their charges in the races where they get the most weight from any class horse.If the class-horse is not at at peak then so much the better.Keep an eye on Breknen Le Noir they are being very careful with him, i never really looked at his race in depth today john, but Hobbs decided to go for the race with less weight from his 2 engagements this weekend, more money up for grabs as well.And he (Hobbs) was prepared to take on Grand Finale who goes up 12lbs in future but was unpenalised for todays race.

John
On paper he looks good, but I would worry about his County Hurdle entry, and the fact that his first run this season was over that c/d.
Don't know what the penalty situation is for that race.

So much for form!

JIB

Very much a question of wise after the event but I passed up Altay for two reasons:
1. The price seemed very tight for a handicap, even with few runners.
2. Altay's last two runs weren't up to the level of the previous two. His form had definitely fallen away. It could be argued that he should have been good enough anyway, but it made me uneasy.

Rob

Johnd, Rob,

I think that this race illustrates the irrelevance of form.

Wet Lips had no form, only a 'good press' whose origins lie with gallops watchers and stable connections. I think its safe to say that its form had been engineered to look far worse than the horses true abilities.

How out of form Altay was/is hard to say because only something like the race time can tell us if he was labouring at the end of a fast run race or a slow run race. From the time we see a v fast race 5.4 secs faster than standard (keep a good watch on Wet Lips!) so I personally think that Altay was fit and trying yesterday. Not least as the pair were some way ahead of the rest.

As these were all younger horses the form was always in danger of being out of date but anyone who went to the races at Musselburgh yesterday would have done better listening to the racecourse gossip rather than reading formbooks!

John.
Form isn't an irrelevance, but it is only part of the answer.
A few questions that should have been asked prior to yesterday's race;
Why had the horse been asked to race twice this season on the wrong ground?
Why had the horse been sent all the way to Cheltenham to race in circumstances that were not to his advantage?
Why was a horse capable of winning a 40k race running in a 10k Musselburgh handicap, particularly in view of the trainers statment that the horse had been aimed at the SWinton from some 6 months previously.
Why was the horse running here 3 weeks prior to an engagement much more in line with his ability?
Why was the horse put in a race where he to carry so much weight when there were any number of more suitable alternatives?

As VDW said, "If the horse is put where logic tells you something is wrong, accept that it is not good enough for you and don't bet". Naivete certainly wasn't one of his faults!

John
Another quote, " What a lot of punters don't seem to appreciate is that in any race the majority of horses are not there to win, but to prepare them to win".
Strange how all these VDW experts seem to have overlooked those remarks.