Thanks for the reply pkboy, i will just have to accept that vdw requires to much effort and application for me though according to Bensam it wasn`t meant to be that hard, i wish you all well though.

You are a Star
Everyone on here should be like you

Those who speak with authority to the rest of us as though VDW is fact, should be able to demonstrate that fact with their expertise in real time

Unfortunately due to various excuses they cant/wont

Simple to understand isn’t it?

As someone else on here wrote

“Assumes Authority without Qualification”

Ectoo you will no doubt relate to the above

[This message was edited by boozer on December 13, 2003 at 04:04 PM.]

[This message was edited by boozer on December 13, 2003 at 04:05 PM.]

[This message was edited by boozer on December 13, 2003 at 04:06 PM.]

Boozer

Odd that you should choose to express that view the very day Guest had clearly named, well before the race, two of the first three c/fs in the main handicap (and, for those not sufficiently versed in the methodology, I had filled in the name of his 2nd c/f, also prior to the race).

Kadoun ran disappointingly, but surely it won't have escaped your attention that Guest's first two c/fs battled out the finish, well clear of the field?

I am still compiling data on all the grade B handicaps and above run in the 2002 and 2003 Flat, and 2002/3 NH seasons (over 400 races), but of the races studied to date over 70% were won by VDW "form" horses (on my understanding of that term) and so far I have yet to find a race won by a "non form" horse where at least one "form" horse has not been placed, mostly at double figure prices.

VDW wrote that "handicaps are said to be the graveyard of punters, but I see them as happy hunting grounds". Make no mistake, once one can reliably sort out the VDW "form" horses, the kind of result we saw in the Tripleprint Gold Cup is far from unusual, as indeed you'll see if you care to check comparable races where, before the offs, on this very thread Guest has named the principal class/form horses.

I cant be bothered to argue the above
But
If you and guest were selling tips I wouldnt be tempted to part with any money.
And looking at the race through abilty ratings
the phrase Look how the whole field is like a blanket springs to mind
Credit goes to guest though for posting before the race and especially last flat
He deserves to do well if only for the sheer balls he has for carrying on posting after such a dismal run of results.

Looking at the A B handicaps for the 2002 flat
It is interesting to note that the winning percentages for (especially) the first 3 in the actual betting are very poor in relation to the expected overall figures.

This I think certainly reflects the competitiveness of this kind of race

And you will be lucky to repeat the result with frequency
Especially on the flat
But dont quit while youre ahead
Prove me wrong

[This message was edited by boozer on December 15, 2003 at 09:40 PM.]

[This message was edited by boozer on December 15, 2003 at 09:41 PM.]

Yo !!

I echo Boozer's remarks !!

I have credited Guest before , as being one of the few "VDW'rs" with the balls to publish !!

Only then ! - Can any progress be made on this thread !!

tc

Boozer


(1) "And looking at the race [the Tripleprint Gold Cup] through abilty ratings the phrase Look how the whole field is like a blanket springs to mind". Obviously it did for you, but for those able reliably to isolate the VDW form horses it didn't - the two Guest mentioned and his 2nd c/f which I named, had, it is true, very close ARs - Risk Accessor 126, Iris Royal 124 and Kadoun 123. But they were well clear of the other form horses, especially the absurdly "short" front two in the betting - Hand Inn Hand 79 and Telemoss 49. As I implied in my pre-race post on Saturday, Guest's thought of backing the Irish pair was one conclusion, but a variety of other bets - and lays - were possible when, as not unusually in such races, there was such dissonance between the chances of the runners from a VDW perspective and general opinion;

(2) "Looking at the A B handicaps for the 2002 flat It is interesting to note that the winning percentages for (especially) the first 3 in the actual betting are very poor in relation to the expected overall figures." Expected - by whom? And what relevance has such a percentage (whether judged "low" or otherwise) to anyone applying VDW's method?

(3) "I think [the pecentage of winners from the first three in the betting] reflects the competitiveness of this kind of race ... And you will be lucky to repeat the result with frequency Especially on the flat." I would refer you to the last phrase of the third sentence in the "Conclusion" to VDW's booklet "Systematic Betting". He didn't describe handicaps as "happy hunting grounds" for nothing.

Fulham
The point many are trying to make and I mean no harm here is that anyone wishing or not to be considered as a reliable VDW disciple has to post up his evaluations on a race BEFORE it has started.You have spent a hell of a lot of time evaluating old races for an insight into how the man DID IT, and no doubt you have more knowledge than most on the subject.
To return this thread to its former glories since most of the so called cynics have taken leave I feel its the only way forward to not necessarily give out the selection of the best prize money races on a saturday, but to discuss OUR three selections(as we can all usually narrow it down to that)for the races in question.That way there will be no embarresment on anybodys part should anything go pear shaped with a single selection.If we can all close our eyes and minds and concentrate on this then I believe we can take this thread far.This is what this forum is all about-discussing possible bets.
Its only lately I have gotten more time on my hands on a Saturday-Im willing.Who else?

BT

You say "This is what this forum is all about -discussing possible bets". I fully accept that that is true for you, and for others. But for me the thread's interest has always been in its potential as a medium for exploring issues of methodology, which is not quite the same and for which post race discussion (be it of yesterday's races or those run in the "VDW years") is as relevant.

As regards the discussion of current races, Guest and Walter started the ball rolling again last Saturday, but apart from modest contributions from Ectoo and myself that seemed to attract no interest. Frost conditions permitting, there should be some decent racing this coming weekend. It will be interesting to see whether others pick up on your very realisic suggestion.

[This message was edited by Fulham on December 17, 2003 at 07:16 AM.]

Hi All,
Its a long time since I wrote to this board or read it, for that matter, mainly because of time and the lack of it. I have just been reading a couple of pages now and see that many of the old crowd, the ones who know what they are talking about, are still writing. The argument of whether VDW followers should relate their findings to all and sundry will never alter. The answer seems to be that they won't and you can't blame them if they have worked so hard to get where they are now. The suggestion that they should all post before the race with their thoughts on it, again will never happen.
There is some merit in the idea that maybe the three form horses in a race could be discussed, as has been suggested, for this I feel eases the pressure to give a winner. Again there is a lot of truth in the suggestion that a lot hinges on the card that you study and the races you select from it.
Boxing Day, as all who have read VDW know, is a classic day to use for this. Dependant on how many join in, and that it is all done in a civilised way, with no slagging people off, it could at the very least get people talking and at best prove educational.

Hi Mr Mick eddy,

I am writing in response to your post on the Boxing Day six. In relation to the Boxing Day six and temperament. It really should be quite obvious what VDW was trying to put across. However there seems to be many interpretations at Variance with that, which I am sure, would have caused VDW some consternation.

In my opinion VDW was clarifying a procedural point and not the means of selection, or, that which is coincidental, a method of identifying the good betting propositions. It is also worth, in my view, bearing in mind just why the other two meetings were not considered on that day and why in other years VDW had intimated the Feltham and the King George winners as the only Boxing Day bets. A correct interpretation of what VDW was really putting across in that six horse example should lead one to a clear understanding of exactly why Gaye Chance was left. Subsequently what VDW meant when he stated repeatedly that it is a narrow path we must follow should also become apparent.

To indicate a measure of the procedure, and temperament, Strong Flow is one bet and in the other indicated race there is conflict between Jair Du Cochet, where the trainer of Best Mate has seen good sense and avoided a rematch with this horse and the apparent class/form First Gold, who's trainer will be more than happy that Best Mate has chickened out and gone to Ireland, in that race a walkover against Native Upmanship and Rince Re seems inevitable.

BEST REGARDS

PKBOY

[This message was edited by pkboy on December 22, 2003 at 10:17 PM.]

PKBOY,
Please note I was not and would not in any way infer that The Boxing Day Six was given as a means of selection. I appreciate what VDW was trying to show us and your reply. I was only attempting to create some interest over the Christmas period and nothing more.

Merry Christmas To All

I have written a Computer Programme broadly based on the VDW approach, the factors taken into consideration are: consistency, recent form, class, betting forecast, days since last run, CD BF, the value of races for those contenders who came in the first three in any of the last four races is also taken into consideration together with value. I don't profess to achieve a strike rate of 80% but a good strike rate and lsp is achieved using the top two rated over time. Top rated selections odds on are backed individually.

I will post selections and welcome any constructive comments good or bad. I rate all races class C upwards. 2% of a £5000 bank is used daily.

Anyone like to post what they consider to be the VDW form horses in these races?

KEMPTON
12.40
Dempsey 2/1
Contraband 5/2

1.10
Strong Flow 4/11

1.45
Rigmarole 9/2
Sporazene 7/2

2.20
Jair Du Cochet 13/8
Fondmont 9/2

3.25
Tinoveritas 11/4
Bed Bug 6/1

Wetherby
1.25
Flagship Uberalles 5/4
Kadaraan 5/2

3.00
Hunters Tweed 7/2
Super Nomad 6/1

Market Rasen
2.30
Trusting Tom 4/1
Tyndarius 6/1

Wincanton
1.35
Sharmy 4/1
Kelrev 13/8

2.05
Achilles Wings 9/2
Dubai Seven Stars 7/1

Ayr
3.05
Beat The Heat 7/2
Westmeath Flyer 7/1

Regards
CD

[This message was edited by Cyberdetective on December 25, 2003 at 08:57 PM.]

31/12/03

1.25 Cheltenham

Perouse V2/1

Top rated on ability, consistency and class, form figures 33%,first three top speed, joint top rated. OR 130 risen 4lbs since last race.
The evidence shows this should be a VDW good thing? Any comments?

PEROUSE was chasing a quick hat-trick, running off the same mark as when successful at Fontwell in mid-week and officially 10lb well in. He confirmed himself still very much on the upgrade with another smooth performance, travelling well, quickening to the front going to the last and winning with plenty in hand again. It will be tougher for him off his new mark, but he is not a horse to underestimate.

Regards
CD

Serious "Input" to this Thread - At Last !!!

Thank You - CD !!!!

tc

31/12/03

I am trying to adhere to the method correctly, comments welcome!

2.35 Cheltenham

Crystal D'Ainay V5/2

Top class and form horse running in similar class to the last race. The only danger appears to be Sh Boom unlikely to succeed on past performance.

CRYSTAL D'AINAY is highly regarded, with the Stayers' Hurdle the aim if he progresses - as he has to considerably from this mark of 140. He looks to have plenty of improvement as he pricked his ears when leading off the home bend and looked to idle as Sh Boom was driven upsides before he pulled away again in the final strides. He is due to come back for the Spa Hurdle (won by the stable's Stromness) and a step up to that 3mcan be expected to bring further improvement. At 20-1 with Paddy Power, he could be the Iris's Gift of this season for the Stayers' and certainly softer ground should hold no fear and a win in the Spa will see his price shrink.

Sh Boom was switched off in rear and arguably could have done with a stronger pace on this drop back in trip. He effortlessly joined in going to three out but he was strongly driven to get to the idling winner and knocking the last flight flat did not help.

VDW Good Thing: Yes

2.00 Cheltenham

Santenay V11/10

Running in similar class to the last race in which he fell. Top rated on class and ability 2nd rated is L'Adventure an unlikely winner at 7/1. Of course McCoy could upset matters.

The last race developed into a duel between SANTENAY and Island Faith, with the former, easily the best of the two over hurdles, proving his class when the chips were down.

VDW Good Thing: Yes

3.10 Cheltenham

Gunther McBride V7/2

2nd rated on class and form to Cresswell Quay, but dropped significantly in class. Top speed horse ridden by Richard Johnson. Should be a better class than the rest.

Gunther McBride led or disputed the lead most of the way until the winner took over. He stuck on well, confirming that he wants a stiffer test than this and running well in the circumstances.

VBW Good Thing: No

Regards
CD

Sorry duplicate post!

CD

As Van der Wheil is orthographically a German name and orthoepically would have the 'Wh' rendered as 'v' in english one could conjecture that the meaning intended by this soubriquet is "from the devil" or "if you're tempted, follow me to punter's hell".

Hello everyone,

I hope you all had a profitable Christmas from my free tips.

BEST REGARDS

PKBOY

Are none of you vdw guys going to stay with us?.