Johnd,

I am amazed at the first quote, I think thats the first time its been mentioned on this thread. I was aware of the second, and was pleased to note that it matched my own feelings when I first read it.

Can I ask if you know at what stage in his writings they appeared? I cant believe they come from his early writings because they are the result (as for example is my own case) of backing too many obvious 'form' horses that were beaten by horses who 'surprised'.

All

I thought wet lips was a good bet as he had good speed figures 89 over sats distance and going I had him the way I do it well clear can't remember how many clear but Altay had no rating at all

have fun

John
Both quotes came from 'Racing In My System' which I believe was published in the spring of 1993.
From the same source "Most punters haven't a clue what's going on, but those who know the game can't be fooled so easily. How many times have you witnessed a so called 'good thing' come unstuck, only to find it in the winner's enclosure next time, when nobody wanted to back it"?
Maybe there is more to it than ability ratings?

Michael
Congratulations on your success.
Your speed figures are obviously very different to those of the Racing Post, whose unadjusted figures have Altay some 3 stone superior over 2 miles!

[This message was edited by johnd on March 01, 2004 at 10:34 PM.]

Another astute quote.

You ve only to have a look at Messers Pipe and O'Neill performances to see how well it applies.

Personally I now only back short price 'goodthings' when they are juveniles whose sire stats suggest they have been placed to win, and horses from the yards of a diminishing handful of old-fashioned trainers led by M Tregonning.

As there is little of interest at the moment, it may be a good time to start looking ahead to Cheltenham.
Over the next few days I will put a few races up from my VDW perspective, anyone who has a different view, comments would be welcome.

CHAMPION HURDLE

ROOSTER BOOSTER
Been there, done it, got the T shirt. Either his lto run or his victory in last year's race should be good enough to win this. Almost certain to strip fitter for this than any of his other races this season. Not the same horse on heavy ground.

RIGMAROLE
Improved all season, and may have more to come.
Yet to show that he is up to this standard, and disappointed when not able to keep up with a fast pace on fastish ground at Wincanton. Probably needs soft ground at this level.

INTERSKY FALCON
Short runner who wouldn't stay this on a bus.

RHINESTONE COWBOY
Good horse, but probably better over further. Question mark against intended jockey. Why didn't my dad buy me toys like this?

GEOS
High class horse who usually needs a couple of runs. If weight does matter, has no chance with RB on lto run. That was probably his Champion Hurdle, and will meet a horse that has been trained for this one. Should place.

INGLIS DREEVER
V good horse, but probably needs further, and unlikely to be fluent at a championship pace.

SPECULAR
Almost totally unknown quantity, will probably run better than his first run in this country, but will need to, and then some.

VEN OTTERY

Very interesting quote from P Nicholls today regarding this horse, which he appears to have improved 3stone+ just by getting him fit.
That's a massive margin between a partly fit horse and a fully fit one, makes one wonder how much trainers have to play around with at the beginning of the season?
For those who missed it, the quote went something like this; "His former trainer doesn't have the facilities of a big yard, so when we got him, he couldn't get up the hill once, (On P Nicholl's gallops, I presume); then we got him to the stage where he could go up 3 times, and eventually 4 times without any problems".
Eye-opening stuff!

Jd,

I m watching this one as well. Today in a 3 runner affair its time was only 0.9sec slow with any amount in hand. It too is miles and miles ahead of its assessment.

This is impressive improving form with Chelt only a couple of weeks away.

John
You may have slightly missed the point of my last post, so I will re-iterate.
P Nicholls has wrung some 40lb plus improvement out of this horse, all within the space of a month, by the simple expedient of getting the horse fit.
The implications of that should be obvious, it not only gives an insight into how much latitude a trainer has with a horse, it also gives a massive clue as to how horses are trained over a period of time. Some, such as Best Mate, Rooster Booster, Azertyuiop, etc are trained to gradually peak over the season, and some, (For instance, Altay?) will be brought to the boil more quickly.
There is a very valuable lesson in the above,and, dare I say it, another nail in the coffin of the inform/out of form tripe on this thread.
Venn Ottery is undoubtedly a good horse, I just hope the owner has the sense to go for the 2m handicap rather than the Champion Chase.

I read in M Pipes assisted autobiography that he bought in many horses who had lopsided rear ends that he then set about getting symmetric. The results are well known. And good horse judges make a good living spotting whats wrong with an animal then fixing it. By the time Nicholl is finished V.O. will probably have gone up 50lbs.

On the otherhand we have to wonder just what Mr O J Carter was doing with this horse, which is his own property. I dont suppose we will ever know other than to say he was making a terrible bollocks of it! And as he has only ever had 3 winners I would imagine hes just a farmer who likes racing.

As I cant see a more professional trainer allowing a horse to remain so out of condition I think V.O.s rapid improvement is therefore as unusual as his inefficient origin.

He looks very impressive.One thing about him is he travels well.When the gallops slow he has pecked at his jumps, when the tap is turned on he jumps much better.I look forwards to seeing him run a good race-4th at best.

Venn Ottery
He was well stuffed today.Maybe one race too much, too soon.That was how it looked to me.
Bio

BT
I would agree, similarly with Rodalko on Saturday, too much, too soon.

Could they be going for the hcp?

re - Trainer intentions -

What is Loder doing with this Horse in a banded race at Lingfield ??

Surely there must be a reason for this ??

tc


either john ?

I dont know what he is doing with a 6yo gelding, which apparently is owned by a stud!

Is it to be used for foreign campaigning, and this was just a tightener? As it has now been withdrawn it certainly doesnt look like it is being placed to win.

Test

Tc
Have been away, so didn't see your query until now, though I rarely look at banded racing anyway.
Two a/w meetings on Sunday, and apart from one maiden, the highest class race is an 'f' which pretty well sums up Peter Saville and his masterplan.

I wouldn't have thought there is a 'master plan' with Scotty's Future.

He's a horse which has the ability to win races but presumably has a physical or mental problems to go along with it. His two recent wins have been tremendously hard work.

Rob

Johnd,

On all known form one cannot really argue with your comments re` Intersky Falcon.

That said, in my opinion his win over Xmas when held up ( albeit over a speed track ) was the best run of his career to date.

Holding him up seemed to suit IF so why did the trainer make the running at Wincanton ?

I`m convinced the horse will be held up next week thus giving him every chance of getting the trip and provided the going isn`t testing thus stretching his stamina I expect him to give RB most to do.