Johnd, they come from a poetic heart!

I agree, only winning form (or a ding-dong battling 2nd) is worth taking seriously. The further you go down the field the less it means.

Knockers are big tits

Johnd,

Whoever VDW was isnt necessarily important provided he wasnt involved in a fraud. He is just one of a long line of mystery authors whose identity is often obscured deliberately in the hope that anonymity will lend their writings added authority.

What strikes me as odd is how the subtlties of the Roushayd method can coexist with the crudity of 'ability' and ' consistancy' ratings. It is as if VDW didnt really know his own mind until towards the end of his literary career.

Before the writings can be analysed it might be worth considering that VDW started out using the form book as his starting point but may well have later decided that it was a poor substitute to watching racing at first hand. That the closing stages of a race werent best summed up by reading the finishing distances nor that the finishing positions were as astute a guide to a horses class as the reaction its efforts created amongst its connections.

The distinctly disappointing results that VDW proponents have achieved by studying written form only after the runners are declared is surely sufficient to consider that the VDW methods dont actually work along those lines.

Personally I think the person who was writing these articles was first noting (visually) horses that gave performances that seemed 'comfortable' without necessarilly winning and then followed them until he felt they had been placed to win. Only then using the form book to check that the opposition held no nasty surprises.

Any reasonably intelligent man who is not sidetracked by the bar will very soon realise that there is a wealth of vital and telling knowlege to be found at the track that can never be detailed in the form book. And is it not your argument that VDW was just that sort of man?

Johnd,

I look forward to following Rosslea, and its very encouraging to see you are watching the horse and waiting for 'the' race rather than looking at the racecard and trying to 'work out' the form to find the horse.

I felt that most of the vdwers went wrong because they were mostly doing the latter, which we all know is seldom clear, and then having to back fit it all after the result was known.

I have not read all the articles so I cannot quote nor dispute your command of details but I think I am not wrong in claiming that the real genius of your last post is in your prediction of Rossleas future engagements which are not written down at all!

In case you think I am underestimating the form book I will reproduce Somnus's form from the RP in the hope it will demonstrate that we interpret form subconciously using our past experiances of the trainer (etc) rather than just the bald black and white form.

SOMNUS 4-y-o (27 Apr 2000) b g
Current Owner: Legard Sidebottom & Sykes

Pivotal - Midnight's Reward ( Night Shift (USA) )
Current Trainer: T D Easterby

(13,500gns) 9th foal, half-brother to 6 winners, 4 as 2yos, including Pasithea (7f at 2, later 10-12f winner) and Forest Prize (dual 6f 2yo winner), dam 5f 2yo winner, half-sister to 11 winners
Breeder: Lady Legard

LIFETIME FORM
WINNING FORM
ENTRIES



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DATE RACE CONDITIONS RACE OUTCOME JOCKEY OR TS RPR
05Oct03 Lon 5H 2y+ (74K) 7/19 4L, Patavellian[4/1] 9-11 T E Durcan 98 108
06Sep03 Hay 6GS A 3y+ (130K) 1/10 1¼L, Oasis Dream[12/1] 8-12 T E Durcan 114 108 123
22Aug03 Nmk 6GF A 3y+ (18K) 2/6 ¼L, Fayr Jag[6/5F] 9-1 T E Durcan 114 74 98
09Aug03 Asc 6GF B 3y (30K) 4/9 ¾L, Move It[8/11F] 8-12 K Darley 114 76 102
19Jul03 Nby 6GF A 3y+ (18K) 1/14 nk, Ashdown Express[5/1] 8-12 K Darley 114 91 115
05Jul03 Hay 6Gd C 3y+ (9K) 1/11 2½L, Maltese Falcon[6/1] 8-9 K Darley 110 92 118
18Jun03 Asc 7GF A 3y (43K) 8/14 11L, Membership[14/1] 8-10 T E Durcan 118 69 85
30Apr03 Asc 6Gd A 3y (18K) 5/9 6L, Striking Ambition[5/2] 8-11 S Sanders 118 72 95
05Oct02 Red 6Fm B 2y (97K) 1/18 hd, Tout Seul[11/2] 8-12 T E Durcan 92 66 114
11Sep02 Don 6Gd B 2y (143K) 1/21 ½L, Mister Links[10/1] 8-11 T E Durcan 91 104
27Aug02 Rip 6Gd D 2y (5K) 1/13 1¼L, Clocking Off[4/1] 9-4 T E Durcan 83 83 94
13Jul02 Yor 6Gd E 2y Mdn (7K) 1/19 nk, Monsieur Bond[10/1] 9-0 S Sanders 55 77
20Jun02 Rip 6GF D 2y Mdn (4K) 5/6 6L, Chin Chin[14/1] 9-0 A Culhane 23 53

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


QUOTES


06 Sep 2003 Haydock (6D,PM123) Somnus loved the ground. The ground came right for him. He goes on fast ground but he is just very, very good when it's soft. Because it was 48-hour declarations I wasn't going to declare him because it costs you money. But I thought we would have to bring him and see if it rains. I spoke to a few jockeys yesterday and they said it was like concrete and I was a bit worried. He will probably run again this year but I don't know where. I am not sure if the Abbaye has closed yet. But he won't be going to Ireland next Saturday! If it had been firm ground I would have taken him out and run him there. I gelded him because he was a boy, he took an awful lot of breaking in, I never regret it because he might not have been here if we hadn't gelded him - Tim Easterby, trainer
05 Jul 2003 Haydock (6G,PM118) He didn’t get seven furlongs at Ascot last time and the going was probably a bit too fast for him anyway -Peter Easterby, trainer's father
05 Oct 2002 Redcar (6F,PM114) He doesn't like it this firm, and to overcome that and still win he's got to be a good horse. I don't know whether he'll run again this season. We'll have to have a look at what's left for him - there might even be something in France. - Tim Easterby
11 Sep 2002 Doncaster (6G,PM104) He was very difficult to break in, and Keith Stone did a good job on him, and so did his lass Jill Tyrell, who rode him away. He's come good now and has a very good attitude. I don't know where we'll go next with him, but I think nurseries will be out from now on - Tim Easterby, Trainer
27 Aug 2002 Ripon (6G,PM94) He'll go for the big Sales race at Doncaster next. Everything will be running in that, but the place money is good - and it goes down to tenth - Peter Easterby, Trainer's father
13 Jul 2002 York (6G,PM77) He's been very nervous and very difficult, not so much to ride but to mount, and we've had to go quietly with him. But he's definitely all right, and is in the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy and the Doncaster Sales race - Tim Easterby, Trainer

Jonjo

Manoubi was odds on its debut, but in common with most of Mr O'Neills short price favs it let its supporters down.

Now that it is further down the fc it is v likely to surprise again, though this time more pleasantly for its backers.

As I cant know about the others, being 6k miles away, I will do Manoubi for a place.

18/02/2004	3.40 Leicester	Atlastaboy	D	4~1	3~1	Lost	3.65
		Channahrlie		5~1	3~1	Lost	5.7
19/02/2004	2.35 Sandown	Koquelicot	B	15~8	11~8	Lost	3.95
		Prominent Profile		13~2	3~1	W8/1	8.4
20/02/2004	3.05 Sandown	Great Travel	C	3~1	4~1	W4/1	4.1
		Harik		5~1	9~2	Lost	6.8
21/02/2004	3.05 Wincanton	Carryonharry	A	14~1	11~2	Lost	5.6
		Ardent Scout		10~1	6~1	Lost	4.3
22/02/2004	3.00 Fontwell	Big Moment	A	4~1	10~3	Lost	3.7
		Sh Boom		7~2	11~4	Lost	3.75
						
18/02/2004	4.00 Musselburgh	Another Dude	D	9~2	11~2	W9/2	5.7
		Feanor		16~1	6~1	Lost	27
19/02/2004	4.40 Taunton	Belski	D	11~2	7~2	Lost	5.6
		Pharaway Citizen		9~2	7~2	Lost	6.6
20/02/2004	4.00 Wolverhampton	Te Quiero	C	7~1	5~1	Lost	7
		Aventura		10~1	11~2	Lost	11
21/02/2004	2.45 Wincanton	Intersky Falcon	A	1~1	13~8	Lost	1.62
		Rigmarole		9~4	2~1	W9/4	4.5
22/02/2004	2.30 Fontwell	Mondial Jack	C	5~2	7~4	Lost	2.8
		Tikram		5~4	2~1	W10/11	2.2